Friday, May 27, 2022

☕ Deflated

Startup investors sound the alarm...
May 27, 2022 View Online | Sign Up | Shop

Morning Brew

Flora Growth

Good morning. Not to be that annoying person who shares their weekend plans without being asked, but we do want to let you know the newsletter schedule over Memorial Day Weekend.

  • Tomorrow: Special travel-themed newsletter
  • Sunday: Regular Sunday Edition
  • Monday: No newsletter (that'll be weird)

Wishing you a weekend with an abundance of fully loaded hot dogs.

Neal Freyman, Matty Merritt, Max Knoblauch

MARKETS

Nasdaq

11,740.65

S&P

4,057.84

Dow

32,637.19

10-Year

2.751%

Bitcoin

$29,534.92

Dollar Tree

$162.80

*Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 3:00am ET. Here's what these numbers mean.

  • Markets: Are we ready to declare a vibe shift on Wall Street? Perhaps. The Dow rose for its fifth straight day, and the S&P and Nasdaq are poised to snap their seven-week losing streaks (as long as the world doesn't collapse today). Retailers are brightening the mood by shooting down rumors that the American consumer is washed up. Shares of Macy's, Dollar Tree, and Dollar General all soared after beating expectations and forecasting sunny outlooks.

STARTUPS

Venture capitalists to startups:

Michael Shannon saying there is a storm coming Take Shelter/Sony Pictures Classics via Giphy

Startup investors are warning their companies to hunker down or risk becoming the unflattering subject of the next Hulu documentary.

Sequoia Capital, one of most prominent Silicon Valley venture capital firms, recently showed its portfolio companies a presentation called "Adapting to Endure," in which it implored startups to hunker down with the business equivalent of a power bank and dried beans.

Given swirling inflation, a Fed that's deliberately slowing down the economy, and geopolitical risks all over the globe, Sequoia believes "this a Crucible Moment." It recommended that its companies take a hard look at how they're spending their money and, if necessary, cut back on R&D, marketing, and projects that aren't essential.

Sequoia has a history of making doomsday calls. In 2020, it called the Covid-19 pandemic a "Black Swan" event and in 2008 wrote a post titled, "RIP Good Times."

These days, it's not the only one sounding the alarm for startups. Silicon Valley startup incubator Y Combinator sent an email to its founders with a Game of Thrones season one vibe. "Regardless of your ability to fundraise, it's your responsibility to ensure your company will survive if you cannot raise money for the next 24 months," the firm wrote.

Big picture: These warnings represent a remarkable U-turn from the unbridled optimism that defined the VC space during the past decade. Just a few years ago, a charismatic founder could fetch a $47 billion valuation with a plan to "elevate the world's consciousness" by leasing office space.

Now, companies big and small are just trying to keep conscious.

  • Bolt, an online payments startup that recently raised a war chest of $355 million, announced layoffs on Wednesday. It's one of at least 16 tech companies that let more than 7,200 employees go this week.
  • Microsoft, Meta, Uber, and Nvidia are all slowing hiring, and Netflix and Robinhood recently laid off staff.
  • SoftBank's mammoth Vision Fund posted its worst annual loss as a result of the tech downturn.

Looking ahead…Sequoia sees signs of a prolonged recession. It's said, "We do not believe that this is going to be another steep correction followed by an equally swift V-shaped recovery like we saw at the outset of the pandemic."—NF

Further reading. The tech rout isn't just cyclical—it's well-earned, and overdue. (Bloomberg)

        

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WORLD

Tour de headlines

Apple CEO Tim Cook wearing sunglasses Drew Angerer/Getty Images

CEOs got a bigger raise than you. Total compensation packages for execs in the S&P 500 jumped 17.1% last year to a median of $14.5 million, according to Equilar data provided to the AP. Private sector workers, on the other hand, got a bump of 4.4% in 2021. But the pay discrepancy isn't exactly apples to apples: CEO compensation is often tied to stock or options that are only exercised when the boss meets targets down the road; only about a quarter of the typical CEO pay package in the S&P is liquid.

Ray Liotta died at 67. The star of Goodfellas, Field of Dreams, and recently The Many Saints of Newark, died Thursday in his sleep while in the Dominican Republic filming the movie Dangerous Waters. Over a 40-year career, Liotta often played crooked cops and intense criminals, but spoke of a more peaceful personal life. "I've never been in a fight in my life, and yet here, now, I'm getting stuck with this tough guy stuff," Liotta said in 2016.

Netflix vs. Disney showdown. Streaming giants Netflix and Disney+ will both release some of their most highly anticipated pieces of legacy content this weekend. Today, all seven episodes of the fourth and final season of Stranger Things, which reportedly cost Netflix $30 million per episode, will premiere. And Disney+ will also debut two episodes of Obi-Wan Kenobi. The parallel releases arrive as Disney's subscriber base is quickly catching up to Netflix's.

ENTERTAINMENT

Hollywood's need for speed

Tom Cruise in "Top Gun: Maverick" Top Gun: Maverick/Skydance

We've reached the gratuitous beach volleyball game section of the newsletter, so it's time to talk Top Gun: Maverick. The highly anticipated and much-delayed blockbuster is due in theaters this weekend, and it boasts a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and strong presale ticket numbers.

For Hollywood, Top Gun: Maverick is a throwback to a film industry built on star power, practical effects, and spectacle (as opposed to the raw sex appeal of Paddington that dominates today's box office). Like audiences, movie studios aren't exactly rushing back into theaters. Just 108 films are expected to be released theatrically this year—22% less than in 2019, according to the New York Times. This film, a sequel to 1986's blockbuster, is expected to be Tom Cruise's largest ever domestic opening, with analysts predicting a $98–$125 million weekend.

  • Since 1981, Cruise's 44 movies have garnered $4.4 billion in the US and Canada, and more than $10.3 billion globally.

Zoom out: If the movie is as successful as analysts predict, it won't exactly be an easy formula to replicate. It took 15 months to figure out how to place six cameras in plane cockpits, and three months to train actors to withstand the G-force of an F-18 flight. The studio paid the Navy more than $11,000 an hour to use the jets (under the condition that Tom Cruise wouldn't touch the controls).—MK

        

COMMODITIES

Memorial Stadium gets deflated

Red balloon release at Memorial Stadium in Nebraska. Steven Branscombe/Getty Images

In a tradition that dates back more than 50 years, Nebraska football fans at Memorial Stadium mass-release balloons on the first Husker touchdown of a home game. But that won't happen this fall. The university said it isn't providing balloons to fans due to a helium shortage.

Yeah, it's a thing. Dollar Tree execs said in an earnings call yesterday that a lack of helium supply was threatening balloon sales, and Party City echoed those same concerns in its report earlier this month.

A helium shortage is a little more serious than a slimmer selection of "Congrats Grad!" balloons. The rare gas is used in rocket fuel, MRI machines, and to fill an objectively more important balloon—weather balloons.

  • Because of the global helium shortage, the National Weather Service warned that it would need to reduce the frequency of weather balloon launches, according to Axios.

In fact, helium is so critical to national security that the government decided to create a national stockpile of the gas in the '60s. In 1996, Congress voted to start selling off the stockpile, but in 2013 they realized they had been selling helium too cheaply and raised prices.

Zoom out: In FY 2013, helium cost about $65 per thousand cubic feet. In FY 2021 prices hit $100, slightly lower than their peak of $119 during the last widespread helium shortage in 2019.—MM

        

GRAB BAG

Key performance indicators

Oslo, Norway Primeimages/Getty Images

Stat: The best city for work–life balance is Oslo, Norway, according to software company Kisi, which tracked metrics such as the availability of remote jobs, the cost-of-living, and the prevalence of outdoor spaces. Not a single US city made the top 10, and if we don't start going on vacation more we're never going to get close. The typical worker in Helsinki, Finland (No. 3), takes one month of paid vacation each year, compared to one week for a Los Angeles worker.

Quote: "The Heat urges you to contact your state senators by calling 202-224-3121 to leave a message demanding their support for commonsense gun laws."

Before tipoff of a playoff game Wednesday between the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat, the Heat's PA announcer urged fans to speak out over gun legislation in the aftermath of the Texas elementary school shooting.

Read: Paradise burned to the ground. Now it's another hot housing market. (Motherboard)

QUIZ

Quiz for the road

Weekly news quiz

Getting a 5/5 on the Brew's Weekly News Quiz has been compared to giving in and Googling yourself once in a while.

It's that satisfying. Ace the quiz.

BREW'S BETS

How did they do special effects without computers? Watch this amazing video to find out.

Shows that stand the test of time: This chart explores the relative interest of the most popular TV shows following their final episode air date.

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WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Kevin Spacey was charged with four counts of sexual assault against three men in the UK.
  • Carl Icahn's proposal to add two directors to the McDonald's board in a push for more ethical sourcing of pork received only 1% of investor votes.
  • The chipmaker Broadcom agreed to acquire VMware for $61 billion in one of the biggest tech deals ever.
  • Justin Timberlake sold his music catalog to a Blackstone-backed investment fund for up to $100 million.
  • More than half of the largest cities in the US lost population during the pandemic, per new US census data.

GAMES

Friday puzzle

This puzzle could take you a while to solve, but we're assuming you might have some downtime during your travels this weekend.

What are the next three numbers in this series?

4, 6, 12, 18, 30, 42, 60, 72, 102, 108, ?, ?, ?

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ANSWER

These are all numbers that are flanked by two prime numbers. So the next in the series would be 138 (137 and 139 are prime), 150 (149 and 151), and 180 (179 and 181).

Source: Braingle

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Written by Neal Freyman, Max Knoblauch, and Matty Merritt

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