MACRON WINS REELECTION IN FRANCE, BUT TROUBLE IS AHEAD Emmanuel Macron was reelected last night with 58.5 percent of the votes cast — or about 38.5 percent of those registered to vote. His total votes (18.8 million) were down by around 2 million compared to 2017. By contrast, Marine Le Pen won 2.7 million additional votes compared to 2017 to end on 41.5 percent (13.3 million). Final results here. The trouble doesn't lay in the overall numbers but in the trends and the demographic breakdown. Some examples: — Le Pen won the vote among 25- to 34-year-olds. We don't know her exact margin, but the latest poll before Sunday's vote had her winning around 60 percent of that group. — More than 3 million voters turned up but spoiled their ballot or left it blank. — There is a massive divide between white-collar and blue-collar France. Professionals split by around 63 for Macron to 37 for Le Pen. Workers with lower levels of educational qualifications split in reverse for Le Pen (66 to 34). — Le Pen won overseas territories in the Caribbean — around 60 percent of the votes in Reunion, Martinique, Guyana and Guadeloupe. WHAT'S NEXT FOR LE PEN? At just 53, and having seen off a strong challenge from Éric Zemmour to her right, she is not going anywhere. Le Pen is cementing a durable coalition, one built up over decades. Her vote share was well over double what her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, achieved in the 2002 presidential run-off, and an 8-point improvement on her 2017 result. If she continues this trajectory, she will be on track to win 47 to 50 percent of the vote in 2027. With Macron effectively creating a party for France's richest demographics, and unable to run again, it's not clear what political legacy he will be handing over to whomever rises to challenge Le Pen in 2027. What is clear is that the supporters Macron relied on — the leftover voters from France's crumbling major parties — will remain up for grabs, while the combined voting blocs of far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the far-right Le Pen are much bigger that of Macron's core supporters. What happens when there is no Macron? You cannot safely bet that the center holds. MACRON'S IMPERATIVE IS COST OF LIVING: The country has long been a frontline in the battle for democracy — and Le Pen family members have been just one step from the presidency for 20 years now. The imperative for Macron will now be to starve Le Pen of oxygen, and doing that will require a relentless focus on cost of living — something he hasn't been good at so far, but which French voters say is their biggest worry. Your author can't help but remember a telling moment in 2016 — during Macron's first interview as a presidential candidate , live on stage with POLITICO in Brussels. He'd meant to show off his globalist credentials, and I asked him when he'd last assembled a piece of IKEA furniture. It was very clear from Macron's answer that he had never assembled a piece of IKEA furniture, and that he didn't think it was a pertinent question. But here's the rub: Those 25- to 34-year-olds who flocked to Le Pen on Sunday, they've spent their whole adult lives assembling IKEA and struggling to make ends meet. MACRON'S VICTORY SPEECH SHOWED HE GETS IT, SORT OF: Picking the Champ de Mars — the public green space in the shadow of the Eiffel Tower that was the scene of the first Bastille Day celebration in 1790 — as a victory speech location allowed Macron to avoid accusations of bling and arrogance. Still, he would have been better off going to a struggling, swing voter town in regional France. Macron's address, however, left many of his advisers and core campaign disappointed, as reported in POLITICO's Paris Playbook . The acidic reaction of one adviser: "The whole thing made no sense. Americanization does not help: The music, the First Lady, the acceptance speech, we are on the verge of the inauguration ball ..." But Macron's willingness to tone it down is a good sign for his governing prospects: "A speech that wanted to be humble and unifying," per POLITICO's Pauline de Saint Remy. Addressing the anger that infused this election campaign, Macron promised "I am everyone's president," and acknowledged the lack of enthusiasm around his candidacy. He thanked those "who voted not for me and my ideals but to block the far-right" and promised to hear the anger of those who voted for Le Pen. Even abstainers got a shout-out: "Their silence is a refusal to choose and we need to answer them." RELIEF, BUT … Twitter thread of the day: From Meta's Florent Joly — A win for open, global thinkers, but … Pierre Morcos has collected dozens of messages from national leaders congratulating Macron. WHAT'S NEXT IN FRANCE: Macron's government will formally resign this week and is expected to be reappointed with few changes by the time of his investiture (inauguration) May 14. Parliamentary elections will follow in two rounds on June 12 and 19. Negotiations are ongoing along Macron's loose liberal coalition to present a joint slate of candidates. Tara Varma , head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, said via email that the far left led by Mélenchon and La France Insoumise is working to "form a large left-wing union with the Greens, Communist Party, and Socialist Party." WHAT'S NEXT AT THE EU: The EU's free trade proponents are readying a new offensive to prove the world's biggest trading bloc can still get deals over the line now that Macron is reelected. Nearly ready deals with Chile, New Zealand, Mexico and Australia are at the top of Brussels' wish list, per my colleague Sarah Anne Aarup. With the Czech Republic and Sweden leading the EU's ministerial council meetings from July 2022 to July 2023, there will be a strong push to diversify supply chains away from Russia and China in pragmatic ways that will not always please French environmental and protectionist instincts that have controlled the agenda for the first half of 2022. Macron remains a critic of a proposed trade deal between the EU and South America's Mercosur countries. SLOVENIA — RIGHT-WING PM LOSES HEAVILY TO LEFT-WING NOVICE: Prime Minister Janez Janša's party suffered a heavy defeat in a parliamentary election Sunday , losing out to a left-leaning party that was only formed at the beginning of this year, despite leading in polls throughout 2022. The Freedom Movement, taken over by businessman Robert Golob in January, received 33 percent of the vote, up from polling 25 percent just a week ago. Janša's Slovenian Democratic Party finished second on 28 percent. SAUDI ARABIA — ANOTHER SNUB TO BIDEN; ANOTHER BET ON TRUMP'S RETURN: Are Saudi Arabia leaders banking on Donald Trump's return to office? They're refusing to help Washington punish Russia for the Ukraine invasion, refusing to increase oil production to help others shift away from Russian commodities and they're placing $2 billion in a new investment fund run by Jared Kushner. IMF, WORLD BANK — SUPPORT FROM GLOBAL SOUTH; INDIFFERENCE ELSEWHERE: If you're from Nigeria, Vietnam and India, you're likely to think the global financial institutions are great. Argentina — which has needed financial rescue 21 times since 1956 — and Russia are quite negative on both institutions. People in the rich countries that provide most of the funding are indifferent, per new Morning Consult polling. COVID CORNER NOW BEIJING FACES LOCKDOWNS: Beijing has begun testing millions of residents after dozens of Covid cases were found in a 3-million strong district of the city (population 21 million). This is likely to head the way Shanghai's outbreak did, with disgruntled residents confined to their homes for weeks under the country's zero-Covid policy approach. Shanghai has been locked down for more than two weeks and still reported more than 19,000 new infections and 51 deaths in the latest 24-hour period. More from Associated Press. Hong Kong eases restrictions: Outgoing Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced that some social distancing rules would be lifted. Restaurant dining until 10 p.m. is back, along with visits to gyms and cinemas. Reality check: Global vaccination push loses steam. SEVENTY PERCENT OF BRITISH COVID HOSPITAL PATIENTS STUCK WITH LONG COVID: Fewer than 1 in 3 U.K. Covid hospital patients recover within a year, according to new research presented at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases in Lisbon on Sunday. Those conclusions come from analysis of data from 39 hospitals on 2,000 individuals who had been admitted after contracting Covid-19. Follow-up assessments of their health were made after five months and then again after one year. UKRAINE FRONTS TRANSNISTRIA AS A RUSSIA TARGET: Maj. Gen. Rustam Minnekayev, acting commander of Russia's Central Military District, has hinted the Transnistria region of Moldova — home to Moscow-backed separatists — could be targeted, too. LEADING FROM BEHIND: Zelenskyy met Sunday in Kyiv with U.S. Secretary of state Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Speaking from an undisclosed location in Poland this morning, Blinken said it wasn't clear how the war would turn out, but "we do know that a sovereign independent Ukraine will be around a lot longer than Vladimir Putin is on the scene." The two officials pledged upwards of $400 million in new military aid, enhanced training on weapons systems and a process to begin bringing U.S. diplomats back inside the country. FRANCE AND GERMANY EVADED ARMS EMBARGO TO SELL WEAPONS TO RUSSIA: The 2014 embargo, set after Moscow's invasion of Crimea, was illegally breached by Paris and Moscow, which collectively sold around $300 million of rifles, special protection vehicles, bombs, rockets and thermal imaging cameras to Russia, Britain's Daily Telegraph reported. Viewpoints Ukraine spent seven years begging three British PMs for weapons — and they didn't listen. Ballistic missiles won't make the difference in the Donbas — drones will, writes Jamie Dettmer. FOOD FIGHTS FERTILIZER PRICES: Fertilizer exports and the ability of farmers to pay for them are key indicators of possible crop failure and famine. Both phosphate and nitrogen-based fertilizers have been trading at record highs recently (bad news for farmers and hungry people), but the price of nitrogen products fell by more than 10 percent on Friday. INDONESIA BANS PALM OIL EXPORTS: Indonesia produces around 60 percent of the world's palm oil, a controversial product mostly used in processed foods. To protect himself domestically against rising food prices, Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo has banned exports of the product indefinitely. What might help him domestically is now certain to inflate food prices globally.
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