| | | | | | | Presented By Google | | | | Axios AM | | By Mike Allen · Apr 11, 2022 | | 🏖️ Good Monday morning. I'm back from spring break in my native land — Southern California, where I stayed on the beach in Santa Monica. - Today's Smart Brevity™ count: 1,475 words ... 5½ mins. Edited by Zachary Basu.
| | | | | | 1 big thing: Inside wartime Russia, Putin isn't losing |  | | | Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Konstantin Zavrazhin, Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik via Getty Images | | | | Russians who don't support the Kremlin line are being suppressed: Demonstrators and journalists face up to 15 years in prison for protesting the war or reporting truthfully on it. - So the protests that began after the invasion have largely died down.
Russian shoppers can no longer buy many Western products or use certain payment methods, and many goods they can buy are now more expensive thanks to the sanctions. - Why it matters: Discontent at home could eventually become dangerous for Putin. But so far, Russians don't seem to be blaming him, Axios World author Dave Lawler writes.
That's the stunning portrait of life inside wartime Moscow that emerges in the third installment of our documentary podcast series, "How It Happened: Putin's Invasion." The more horrific the allegations against Russia — including the apparent massacre of civilians in Bucha — the stronger the impulse to reject them as lies, says Grigory Yudin, a sociologist at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences. - "Otherwise, it's just impossible to live with," Yudin says. "You need some storyline that tells you how things are fine."
The sanctions have amplified the sentiment among most Russians that Western aggression caused the war in the first place, says Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, Russia's top independent pollster. - In focus groups, Russians complain their lives are getting harder — while at the same time praising Putin for standing up to the U.S.
🎧 Hear more of Dave Lawler's interviews on this morning's new episode of our podcast series, "How It Happened: Putin's Invasion" ... Part IV: "The view from Russia." |     | | | | | | 2. 🚨 Musk stiffs Twitter | | Elon Musk "has decided not to join" Twitter's board of directors, the social media company's CEO Parag Agrawal tweeted (image below) late last night — days after announcing the Tesla CEO would take a board seat. Why it matters: Musk is still Twitter's largest shareholder. Had he taken a board seat, he'd have been limited in how much of the company's shares he could own, Axios chief tech correspondent Ina Fried reports from S.F. - This could be a prelude to walking away, a hostile takeover — or anything in between.
Flashback: Agrawal said Tuesday he was "excited" Musk would join Twitter's board after buying a 9.2% stake. - Since then, Musk has been highly critical of Twitter ... on Twitter.
- The SpaceX CEO told his 81 million Twitter followers late last month that he was giving "serious thought" to building a social media platform to rival Twitter, which he criticized for "failing to adhere to free speech principles."
The intrigue: All of the tweets Musk posted about Twitter changes over the weekend and in the minutes following Agrawal's announcement appear to have been deleted. - How Musk reacted early today:
Via Twitter Share this story. | | | | | | | | 3. 🔮 Stand by for a nasty inflation report |  Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Chart: Axios Visuals A new inflation reading, out tomorrow morning, looks to be a doozy, chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes in Axios Markets: - The Consumer Price Index for March will reflect the surge in energy prices tied to the war in Ukraine, which is likely to push the headline number to yet another multi-decade high.
Why it matters: The biggest question facing the economy now is whether inflation will come down on its own — or require such aggressive Fed action as to bring a recession. The new numbers will provide fresh evidence of which reality we're living in. - The report will include crucial evidence of whether the forces that have driven inflation — largely affecting goods — are starting to fade.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the release to show 8.4% inflation over the last year, which would be the highest overall inflation rate since December 1981. The rate was 7.9% for the year ending in February. - Excluding food and energy, the forecast is for 6.6% inflation, which would be the highest since Aug. 1982.
Case in point: Rent price increases have accelerated in each of the last three months, and were up 0.6% in February. That reflects constrained housing supply and rising incomes — and so long as it persists will keep inflation from coming down meaningfully. ⛽ Gas prices are a major culprit. The average gallon of gasoline rose 20% from February to March, according to government data. Share this story. | | | | | | | | A message from Google | | $100M Google Career Certificates Fund supports economic mobility | | |  | | | | The $100M Google Career Certificates Fund enables nonprofits Social Finance, Year Up, and Merit America to support economic mobility for 20,000+ American workers. The goal is to support career advancement and deliver $1B in wage gains for American workers over the next decade. Learn more. | | | | | | 4. 🗳️ The 6 states that matter most for '22, '24 |  | | | The six states all voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Illustration: Axios Visuals | | | | Six political hotspots for midterms — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada — will also decide the 2024 election, Doug Sosnik, a top Democratic adviser, writes in a strategy memo. - Why it matters: All six have competitive governors' races in November. Five of the six (sans Nevada) were the only states to vote for the winning presidential candidates in both 2016 and 2020. And President Biden's approval rating is underwater in all of them.
Sosnik — Brunswick Group senior adviser and former political director for President Bill Clinton — tells Axios' Alexi McCammond he included Nevada because the margins in 2016 and 2020 were less than 2.5%. - These states are "still in the midst of a political transformation that has been driven by economic and demographic changes," he writes.
Between the lines: Trends favor Republicans, who have a 17-point edge on voter enthusiasm, according to an NBC News poll last month. - President Biden's approval has been in the low 40s for months.
👀 What we're watching: All five of the Cook Political Report's tossup U.S. Senate races are in Sosnik's states. - Democrats are defending seats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Republicans are defending in Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is an open race.
The six states are also key to the House: They're the battleground for nearly one-third of Cook's most competitive races. | | | | | | | | 5. ⚡ Biden targets guns without serial numbers |  | | | President Biden greets visitors during the White House Spring Garden Tour in the Rose Garden on Saturday. Photo: Carolyn Kaster/AP | | | | President Biden this afternoon will announce new plans to regulate "ghost guns," which are assembled at home from "buy build shoot" kits and don't have serial numbers, making them tough to track. - Why it matters: With gun violence ravaging communities across America, the Biden administration is looking for executive fixes, Axios' Hans Nichols writes.
What's happening: The administration plans to reclassify key components in gun kits as "firearms," allowing the government to better track them. - "[T]he rule establishes requirements for federally licensed firearms dealers and gunsmiths to have a serial number added to 3D printed guns or other un-serialized firearms," a Justice Department memo says.
The context: Some 20,000 suspected ghost guns were recovered in criminal investigations last year, according to government data. | | | | | | | | 6. 🇸🇦 Trump alumni cash in on Saudi ties | | Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman escorts Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump in Riyadh during a White House trip in 2017. Photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters Jared Kushner and former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have secured billions of dollars from the Saudi government for their new private equity funds, The New York Times reports (subscription). - Jared Kushner's firm, Affinity Equity, scored a $2 billion commitment from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.
- Mnuchin's Liberty Strategic Capital secured $1 billion.
Why it matters: These are massive investments to bestow upon first-time private equity funds, Axios Pro Rata author Dan Primack notes. Affinity is seeking to raise upwards of $7 billion, but appears to be less than halfway to that target. Liberty raised $2.5 billion for its debut fund. | | | | | | | | 7. 🛒 Last 3 Kmarts | | Kmart shoppers gather around the flashing blue light for a Blue Light Special on blankets in 1982 at the first Kmart — in Garden City, Mich. The store was torn down in 2020. Photo: AP Kmart — once a retail giant with well over 2,000 U.S. stores — is down to just three, AP reports: - Kmarts continue to operate in Westwood, N.J. ... Bridgehampton, on New York's Long Island ... and in Miami.
Why it matters: The retail world now is dominated by Walmart, Target and Amazon. Being there: At the store in Avenel, N.J. (Woodbridge Township) — closing April 16 — there's a recording that begins with the familiar: "Attention, Kmart shoppers." It's a reminder about COVID precautions. | | | | | | | | 8. ⛳ Green-jacket newcomer | | Scottie Scheffler dons the green jacket — aided by the previous winner, Japan's Hideki Matsuyama. Photo: Mike Blake/Reuters Scottie Scheffler — age 25, and the pride of Highland Park High School in Dallas — dominated the Masters, cementing his status as the hottest golfer on Earth, Axios Sports author Kendall Baker writes. - Why it matters: Scheffler joins Jordan Spieth (2015) and Tiger Woods (1997, 2001) as the only players age 25 or younger to win the Masters over the last 40 years.
Eight weeks ago, Scheffler had zero PGA Tour wins and $8.7 million in earnings. 57 days later, he has four wins, $17.6 million in earnings, a green jacket and a No. 1 world ranking. Not bad. - After a week that revolved around Tiger Woods, the spotlight has shifted back to the generation he inspired.
- "I play Tiger's irons," said Scheffler yesterday. "I wear his shoes. I wore his shirt this week. ... We're so glad to have him back."
Go deeper: Scheffler's family journey. | | | | | | | | A message from Google | | Google supports $1B in American wage gains with $100M fund | | |  | | | | The fund helps Social Finance, Merit America, and Year Up provide career coaching, living stipends, and job placement support. These services help people from underserved backgrounds get the assistance they need to find high-paying jobs with Google Career Certificates. Learn more. | | | | 📬 Invite your friends to sign up here to get their daily essentials — Axios AM, PM and Finish Line. |  | It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | |
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