👣How We’ve Quietly Gotten One Major Step Closer to a Recession👣

Good morning. While the stock market has largely been in relief rally this week, other markets...

It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. While the stock market has largely been in relief rally this week, other markets have been a bit more foreboding. A larger part of the Treasury market is approaching a yield curve inversion, where longer-dated bonds have lower yields than shorter-term bonds. Historically, this has always led to a recession, and the last time this phenomenon occurred was back in late 2019 – which indicates that even without a global pandemic, a recession was likely in the cards for 2020. While we're not quite at levels that guarantee a recession, the combination of rising interest rates, multi-decade-high levels of inflation, and a geopolitical flareup in Europe suggest that traders remain cautious, even if markets continue their relief rally in the next few weeks. Now here's the rest of the news: Sponsored Content Man Called Tesla at $50, Says Buy This EV Stock He saw the writing on the wall before Wall Street did...He pounded the table to buy Tesla at $50, predicting it would go to $1,000. Now he's issued another big buy alert — one that he believes could do just as well... Click here for the full story. MARKETS DOW 34,063.10 +1.55% S&P 4,357.86 +2.24% NASDAQ 13,436.55 +3.77% *As of market close • Stocks rallied on Thursday, marking a strong three-day rally. • Oil rose 8.9 percent, closing at $103.51 per barrel. • Gold rallied 1.5 percent, going for $1,937 per ounce. • Cryptocurrencies traded flat, with Bitcoin at $40,872 at the market close. Today's TOP TIPS Rising Interest Rates Won't End the Boom In this Sector (For Now) For the first time since 2018, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates. With yields at just 0.25 percent, however, it's unlikely to do much more than start to cool the high inflation rates we've been seeing over the course of months. Some traders see a number of sectors traditionally slow down when interest rates rise, and have started to place their bets accordingly. However, while history often rhymes, it doesn't usually directly repeat itself. » FULL STORY Insider Trading Report: Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), a major holder of Occidental Petroleum (OXY), recently increased their stake by nearly 30 percent with a 27,107,389 share buy, coming in at just over $1.5 billion. That's on top of a 61 million share buy earlier in March at a cost of over $3.1 billion, also from the conglomerate managed by Warren Buffett. A number of company directors have been active in the past few weeks, with buys exceeding sales there. » FULL STORY Unusual Options Activity: Nvidia (NVDA) Shares of graphics processing manufacturer Nvidia (NVDA) have been a top stock to own over the past several years, but shares are still down with other tech plays in the past few months. One trader sees the potential for a rebound underway. That's based on the April 8 $240 calls. With 21 days left until expiration, 10,785 contracts traded compared to an open interest of 327, for a 33-fold increase in volume. The buyer of the calls paid $16.15 to enter the trade. » FULL STORY IN OTHER NEWS • Jobless Claims Fall to 214,000 Initial jobless claims came in at 214,000 last week, a decrease of 15,000 from the week prior, according to the Labor Department. The number came in below expectations, and is a further sign that the labor market continues to remain tight as workers leave for better paying jobs without spending much (if any) time on unemployment between jobs. • Mortgage Rates Creep Over 4 Percent Rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 4.16 percent last week, a major rise from the 3.85 percent a week before, according to data from Freddie Mac. That's the first time mortgage rates have been over 4 percent since May 2019. The move as come as the bond market has tightened ahead of the Fed's announcement to raise interest rates on Wednesday. • Nickel Prices Hit Limit Down Just over a week ago, nickel prices more than doubled in the span of a few hours, leading to a halting of trading on the London Metals Exchange. Since reopening, the metal has now been dropping, but has hit the new limit down levels put in place to avoid wild swings. The current limit down price for a daily move is 8 percent. • Amazon Closes Deal for MGM Studios Tech giant Amazon (AMZN) has the green light to buy MGM Studios, following the expiration of a regulatory clock set by the FTTC. The purchase will allow the company to acquire 4,000 films and numerous TV shows to its existing library, including the James Bond franchise. • Ukraine Approves Bill to Legalize Cryptocurrency Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signed a bill to legalize cryptocurrencies, one month after the country's parliament approved it. The bill establishes a legal framework for the country to operate a regulated cryptocurrency market. Crypto exchanges and companies will be allowed to operate legally in the country, provided they register, and banks can also now open accounts for crypto-related businesses. S&P 500 MOVERS TOP DVN 9.645% OXY 9.474% APA  7.001% MRO 6.855% MELI 6.796% BOTTOM NTES 8.799% SEDG 5.854% TCOM 4.413% HPQ  3.686% JD 3.34% Quote of the Day We are attentive to the risks of further upward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations. The committee is determined to take the measures necessary to restore price stability. The U.S. economy is very strong and well-positioned to handle tighter monetary policy. - Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, stating why the central bank is working to navigate between the need to curb inflation while also being mindful of external events that could cause the economy to slow. Sponsored Content Man Called Tesla at $50, Says Buy This EV Stock He saw the writing on the wall before Wall Street did...He pounded the table to buy Tesla at $50, predicting it would go to $1,000. Now he's issued another big buy alert — one that he believes could do just as well... Click here for the full story. Not sure the best way to get started? 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