From the Desk of Don Yocham: I hoped to have some perspicacious prose ready to send your way today, but the scare Bullard put in the market had me working my short position on the S&P.
Thus, all I could muster is a quick note.
The market might be wild, but that's the way I love it. Opportunities abound in transitional markets. And 13-years of stimulus-inspired markets is now in the process of transitioning to an environment of secularly rising rates.
At least that's the expectation. Whether the Fed can stare down massive recession like Volker managed in the 70s is long odds.
However this dance unfolds, the era of long-only genius-making gains are over. You need to be nimble. And, better yet, remove all bias and simply take what the market gives you — up or down.
We've played the both the long and short side of the S&P. Went short natural gas — thank you, mild weather. Went long the British Pound briefly. And we're still working the short side of oil. (Well, they can't all be winners…yet.)
As I told the community earlier today, "Let's assume the Fed has a secret, emergency, 'holy crap we gotta talk about this inflation crap' meeting on Monday. Let's also assume they decide to hike rates beyond any expected expectations of expectations setting amount previously held. The support just below 4400 will give way like quicksand. But there needs to be a major fright one way or another to breach it."
And here's what I was talking about. |
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