| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward | | 
A Ukrainian soldier walks past debris of a burning military truck on a street in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo | With help from Quint Forgey, Connor O'Brien, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint The Russian military has severely underperformed in the first five days of the war it started. But the sad truth is it will likely compose itself and use immense firepower to break Ukraine's fierce resistance — and win. Social media is replete with burned-out Russian tanks, downed aircraft, columns of trucks driving the wrong direction and troops derailed by everyday Ukrainians confronting them. As of this writing, Russia has yet to take a single Ukrainian city and is switching to brutal siege tactics to change its fortunes. For arguably the world's second-most powerful military, that's an atrocious start. So what happened? NatSec Daily spent the last few days talking to Western officials and experts about how Russia mucked up the earliest phases of the invasion. As best they can assess, Russia was overconfident in what it could accomplish quickly, evidenced by how it sent too-few forces to capture Kyiv. Rushing to take the capital right away — and expecting a fast surrender or takeover — was a doomed plan from the start. "There is no fast way to take a city of that size," said MICHAEL KOFMAN , an expert on Russia's military at the Virginia-based CNA think tank. "They expected to win very quickly and avoid a prolonged war and badly miscalculated." (Read Kofman's good Twitter thread here.) There was also a lack of planning, said the Foreign Policy Research Institute's ROB LEE. Despite months of perching on Ukraine's border, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN likely "didn't give the lower officers much warning. A lot of this seems to be coordination failures." Perhaps the greatest tactical failure was not gaining air superiority by destroying Ukraine's war planes and air defenses. But some smaller mistakes include leaving columns of trucks out in the open on roads, leaving them vulnerable to attack. The Ukrainians themselves, of course, have played a large part in Russia's five-day stall. In large part that's due to deliveries from allies — a lot more of which appears to be coming, after a weekend in which the West firmly took sides. The Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone has proved effective in taking out impressive numbers of equipment, while Kyiv's professional soldiers and armed citizens have to date stopped Russians from entering their cities. PHILIP BREEDLOVE, a retired U.S. Air Force general and NATO's military leader from 2013 to 2016, said the Ukrainians also planned well for their adversary. One Ukrainian official he's long known told him the country has three times the number of anti-tank weapons than Russia has tanks — though he still thinks the West should provide more. The resistance has been formidable, and it proved wrong Western intelligence assessing that Kyiv could fall this past weekend. But Russia has only committed 75 percent of its troops amassed on the Ukraine border to date, per a senior U.S. defense official, and analysts note that we have yet to see some of the most advanced weaponry Moscow has on the Ukrainian battlefield. "Eventually the force that Russia has will be extremely hard for Ukraine to deal with," Breedlove told NatSec Daily, assuming the U.S. and its allies are unable to provide Ukraine what it needs. News coverage focused on the U.S. military's struggles in the earliest days of the 2003 Iraq War, suggesting the world's strongest fighting force would struggle to reach the capital. "[T]he Iraqi tactics, while showing little coherent military organization, appeared to expose a potential weakness in the dash the American forces were making to Baghdad," The New York Times reported five days into that conflict. The early casualties and mistakes eventually gave way to the U.S. and allied forces taking Baghdad three weeks later — though they fouled up the occupation in the following years. Russia isn't the U.S. military, and Ukraine isn't Iraq, but there are signs Russia is adapting to the staunch Ukrainian defense in horrific ways. Russia today launched rockets into civilian areas of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city situated in the predominantly Russian-speaking east, killing dozens. Russian warplanes flew over urban areas and they may soon — if not already — engage in tactical bombing. And per the Pentagon this weekend, Moscow's forces are starting to adopt "siege tactics," with which they'll pound cities from afar to force Ukraine's surrender. There are even air raid sirens in Lviv, a western Ukrainian city just 40 miles from NATO territory. As Breedlove put it, what we've seen so far "is not going to be the trend for the duration of the conflict." The unfortunate conclusion is that it looks bad for Russia now, but it looks far worse for Ukraine in the long run.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures and assessments with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — As of 6 a.m. local time today, Ukraine claims more than 5,300 Russians have been killed or injured, 29 Russian aircraft and 29 helicopters have been destroyed and 191 tanks have been lost ( General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) — Russia launched more than 380 missiles into Ukraine and sent 75 percent of the forces amassed on Ukraine's border into the country ( senior U.S. defense official) — Russia has launched 113 Iskander and Kalibr missiles (Ukraine military chief) — Russian forces advanced 5 km overnight, leaving them 25 km outside of Kyiv ( senior U.S. defense official) — Ukrainian troops will now receive around $3,300 a month ( General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) Global Response: — Finland: The Finnish Ministry of Defense announced that it would send 2,500 assault rifles, 150,000 cartridges for the attack rifles, 1,500 single-shot anti-tank weapons and 70,000 combat ration packages to Ukraine. — Norway: Norway's government announced it would send 2,000 anti-armor weapons. — Sweden: Sweden's Minister for International Development Cooperation MATILDA ERNKRANS announced her government will provide $10.5 million in humanitarian aid to different groups during work in Ukraine. — Switzerland: Switzerland's Federal Council decided to adopt the European Union's sanctions of Russia. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — POLL: AMERICANS SPLIT OVER BIDEN'S HANDLING OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT: A new Morning Consult/POLITICO poll shows that a majority of registered U.S. voters are even split over how Biden has handled the Russia-Ukraine conflict. A total of 43 percent said they either "strongly approve" or "somewhat approve" of Biden's handling, while a 45 percent total said they "somewhat" or "strongly" disapprove. The margin of error for the poll of 2004 people was 2 percent. Now here's a talker: A majority of Americans believe Putin "would be more responsive to the demands" of former President DONALD TRUMP than Joe Biden. Per the survey, 48 percent said Putin would listen to Trump while only 10 percent said so about Biden. Of course, Putin was far friendlier with the former president than he has been with Biden, and Putin did invade Ukraine despite Biden warning him not to. However, 55 percent of respondents said the invasion "definitely" or "probably would have happened" if Trump were still president, while 43 percent said "probably" or "definitely not." Discuss… WEAPONS SUPPLY TO UKRAINE COMPLICATED: The West's efforts to arm Ukraine may soon run into a big stumbling block: Russian forces. "In the lead-up to Russia's attack on Thursday, Nato allies could deliver equipment by air or land, direct to military depots. But Ukraine's skies are now dominated by Russian fighter jets, and Nato allies have said they will not provide air cover as that would effectively mean declaring war on Moscow. Many Ukrainian airfields have also been rendered unusable by missile strikes," the Financial Times' JOHN PAUL RATHBONE and HENRY FOY report. "On Saturday, there were reports that airborne Russian forces had landed in western Ukraine, potentially complicating deliveries further," they continued. The U.S. and its allies have continued to provide weapons and equipment to Ukrainian fighters and seek multiple land routes through which to deliver that materiel. But there's concern that Russia could interrupt those convoys, including bombing resupply points inside of Ukraine, U.S. and European official have told NatSec Daily. A senior defense official, however, today told reporters that so far there are no signs of Russians trying to interdict foreign military aid to Ukraine.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
| | | 'IRREVERSIBLE' CLIMATE CHANGE: Many aspects of our hotter world are now "irreversible," according to a new landmark report by the United Nations. ANTÓNIO GUTERRES, the U.N. secretary-general, said he had seen "nothing" like what's in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's scientific report, which he called " an atlas of human suffering." The New York Times' BRAD PLUMER and RAYMOND ZHONG summarized the findings well: "In 2019, storms, floods and other extreme weather events displaced more than 13 million people across Asia and Africa. Rising heat and drought are killing crops and trees, putting millions worldwide at increased risk of hunger and malnutrition, while mosquitoes carrying diseases like malaria and dengue are spreading into new areas. Roughly half the world's population currently faces severe water scarcity at least part of the year." "The report also carries a stark warning," they continued. "If temperatures keep rising, many parts of the world could soon face limits in how much they can adapt to a changing environment. If nations don't act quickly to slash fossil fuel emissions and halt global warming , more and more people will suffer unavoidable loss or be forced to flee their homes, creating dislocation on a global scale." Last October, the Pentagon released a report about the challenges climate change poses to the U.S. military, stating it was "reshaping the geostrategic, operational, and tactical environments with significant implications for U.S. national security and defense." And earlier this month, the U.S. Army released its first-ever climate strategy . NORTH KOREA LAUNCHES SUSPECTED BALLISTIC MISSILE: North Korea is at it again, this time launching a suspected ballistic missile on Sunday off its east coast, restarting its high-rate of tests after a pause that coincided with the Beijing Winter Olympics. "The single missile was fired around 7:52 a.m. local time from the Sunan area, Seoul's military said. It traveled around 185 miles and hit an altitude of more than 370 miles, before splashing into the waters between Korea and Japan, Tokyo's military said," per The Wall Street Journal's TIMOTHY MARTIN. "North Korea said it had tested reconnaissance satellite technology, conducting 'vertical and oblique photographing of a specific area on earth,' according to state media on Monday. Systems for high-definition photography, data transmission and altitude-control devices were verified by the country's aerospace and defense science officials, state media said," Martin reported.
| | | WARNER WORRIES ABOUT RUSSIA'S 'A-TEAM': Senate Intelligence Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) on Monday warned that while Russia has yet to unleash the full extent of their cyber capabilities on Ukraine, both the besieged nation and members of NATO should expect attacks to ramp up, our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. "Do I expect Russia to up its game on cyber? Absolutely," Warner said during a Washington Post Live event. "I think again this is where Putin miscalculated, I think he felt he could use his, in a sense, B-Team to try to take down some of the Ukrainian networks, saving his A-Team and the tools." Given Russia's slower advance in Ukraine, and the recent crippling sanctions levied by the United States and other Western countries that have virtually cut Moscow off from the international economic system, Warner said that the top-tier hacking capabilities could soon make an appearance. "He may have to use that A-Team to continue his invasion in Ukraine, so that's not off the table, but as these sanctions bite.… I do think we need to be prepared for high-level, his A-Team attacks, against the West," Warner said. "Whether they start with nations in NATO that have weaker cyber controls, or whether they go straight against the United States, Britain, France, Germany, time will tell." Warner's comments came as Ukraine continues to be targeted by cyberattacks from both Russia and its ally Belarus. Multiple distributed denial of service attacks this month temporarily disabled Ukrainian government websites, with one of those attacks linked by the U.S. to Russia, and on Sunday Ukrainian embassies and consulates around the world were hit by a cyberattack. Kremlin sites have been down as the war raged. Major tech companies have stepped in to shine a spotlight on these malicious cyber activities. Facebook parent company Meta, which on Monday announced it had taken steps to address an effort by a Belarus-linked hacking group known as "Ghostwriter" to compromise Facebook accounts of Ukrainian public figures including politicians, military leaders and journalists. Microsoft on Monday announced that it had detected malicious efforts to target and destroy Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the hours before the Russian invasion, and had seen efforts by hackers to steal Ukrainian health, transportation, insurance and other personal data in the days since. U.S. critical infrastructure companies have also been on high alert against potential Russian attacks, though Biden administration officials have repeatedly noted in the past week that there are currently no credible threats to the homeland in cyberspace. "Should we expect more? Absolutely," Warner said.
| | | |   | | | TOYOTA HIT WITH CYBERATTACK: Toyota will suspend operations in Japan after a supplier was hit with a suspected cyberattack, Reuters reported. The pause could affect production of up to 13,000 cars. It's unclear who is behind the attack or the motivation behind it. Some suspect Russia, since the strike came shortly after Japan joined North America and Europe's campaign to pressure Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine. "It is difficult to say whether this has anything to do with Russia before making thorough checks," Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO told reporters today. A spokesperson for the company told Reuters that it's unclear if all 14 plants in Japan will stop their work for longer than a day. @SECDEF 'FAT FINGER MISTAKE': At roughly 10 a.m., @SecDef — Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN's official Twitter account — retweeted a screenshot of Fox News' TUCKER CARLSON defending Putin, which was in response to the account's tweet about the unity of the NATO alliance during the war. "PUTIN JUST WANTS TO KEEP HIS WESTERN BORDER SECURE," read the Fox News chyron. The person who runs the account — c'mon, we all know Austin isn't behind it — didn't mean to retweet the implied criticism, per the Pentagon's chief spokesperson JOHN KIRBY. "It was a fat finger mistake by one of our social media guys. He undid it immediately," he emailed us after we asked about the surprising retweet. "Honest mistake." There will be no reprimand for the social media manager who errantly hit the retweet button, Kirby said.
| | | LOCKHEED AND MICROSOFT PARTNER ON 5G: Lockheed Martin is teaming up with Microsoft to develop 5G technologies for the U.S. military, the defense contractor's head of 5G programs told Breaking Defense's VALERIE INSINNA. The two companies already did a test last December. "We essentially simulated four different air platforms doing ISR missions and close air support, to support a simulated special operations force on the ground that was pursuing a high value target," said DAN RICE, Lockheed's VP for 5G.MIL. "During the laboratory tests, the companies were able to link three hybrid base stations — basically, transportable 5G base stations that can also connect to military networks — to Microsoft's 5G core and to military datalinks such as NATO's Link 16 and other advanced tactical links," Insinna wrote. "The companies also used Microsoft's Azure Arc, a suite of management tools for cloud environments, to move applications from the enterprise level to the tactical level, to be used by dismounted troops on the ground." 5G is one of Lockheed's top priorities since new CEO JIM TAICLET took the reins in 2020.
| | | MOMENTUM FOR UKRAINE AID: Support is building for Congress to allocate more military aid to help Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion, as the White House outlined a new $6.4 billion request to assist Kyiv. The request, which was briefed to congressional appropriations and leadership staff on Friday, includes $3.5 billion in Pentagon funding to support troop deployments to Europe and measure to reassure NATO countries, our colleagues CONNOR O'BRIEN, JENNIFER SCHOLTES AND ANDREW DESIDERIO report. Another $2.9 billion would go to the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development to provide security assistance to Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics and allies on NATO's eastern front. It also would help combat cyber attacks, counter disinformation and provide humanitarian assistance. The funding proposal comes amid a bipartisan push on Capitol Hill for an assistance package that includes military and humanitarian aid. Lawmakers are considering including the new request as part of a broader spending package that leaders are working to finalize by the March 11 funding deadline, according to a leadership aide. Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.), chair of the Senate Defense Appropriations panel who is spearheading talks on a full-year Pentagon funding measure, pledged to use his perch to "get more funds and equipment to the Ukrainian patriots defending their country." Still, other lawmakers are pushing for immediate action on military assistance. Sen. ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio), who co-chairs the Senate Ukraine Caucus, on Saturday tweeted that the upper chamber "must immediately move to consider an aid package" this week. The package would boost military aid to Ukraine and NATO and allocate extra cash to respond to cyber attacks and a refugee crisis. HASC AND SASC ARE BACK: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) provided a preview of what HASC and SASC are up to now that lawmakers have returned to Washington. On Tuesday, HASC holds a hearing on the Pentagon and State Department's engagement with allies to achieve national security objectives. SASC will also hold a hearing on global security challenges and strategy. The same day, HASC's Strategic Forces subcommittee hears testimony on space, nuclear and missile defense programs from SASHA BAKER, the Pentagon's new No. 2 policy official, and the heads of U.S. Strategic Command, Northern Command and Space Command. And on Thursday, the HASC Seapower and Readiness panels will convene a hearing with Navy brass on the state of the surface fleet.
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Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more. | | | | | | FIFA SUSPENDS RUSSIA: After initially equivocating about how much to punish Russia, FIFA and its European governing body suspended Russia's national soccer team and club teams from all competitions "until further notice." "Football is fully united here and in full solidarity with all the people affected in Ukraine. Both Presidents hope that the situation in Ukraine will improve significantly and rapidly so that football can again be a vector for unity and peace amongst people," FIFA and UEFA said in a joint statement. It's a massive move, especially since world soccer's leaders at first considered just stripping Russia of its official recognition (much like how "Russia" doesn't but totally does compete at the Olympics). The pushback started after Poland's national team refused to play Russia in a World Cup qualifier. Now, the Russian soccer league is basically on hold and Russia's national team can't compete to qualify for this year's quadrennial tournament. It's even bigger considering the last World Cup in 2018 was held in Russia, which was meant to showcase the country's return to football greatness. After the invasion, it's a pariah.
| | | — HASC Democrats today announced key staffing changes: BRIAN GARRETT is the new staff director; KATY QUINN is now deputy staff director; PHIL MacNAUGHTON is the new policy staff lead; and JAY VALLARIO is the new seapower and projection forces staff lead. — JOHN COTTON RICHMOND is now a nonresident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security's Scowcroft Strategy Initiative at the Atlantic Council. Richmond is a partner at Dentons in its Washington, D.C., office and is the former U.S. ambassador-at-large to monitor and combat trafficking in persons at the State Department.
| | | — EMILY TAMKIN, The New York Times: "How the American Right Stopped Worrying and Learned to Love Russia" — EDWARD FISHMAN and CHRIS MILLER, Foreign Affairs: "The New Russian Sanctions Playbook" — CHRIS COONS and JOHN PRENDERGAST, Foreign Policy: " Targeted Sanctions Can Help Restore Democracy in Sudan"
| | | — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Global Security Challenges and Strategy — with HEATHER CONLEY and ROGER ZAKHEIM" — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Engagement with Allies and Partners — with MARA KARLIN and JESSICA LEWIS" — House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: "Subcommittee Hearing: FEMA: Building a Workforce Prepared and Ready to Respond Part 2 — with ERIK A. HOOKS" — House Veterans' Affairs Committee and Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Legislative Presentation of the Disabled American Veterans — with J. MARC BURGESS, JOY ILEM, BARRY JESINOSKI, JOHN KLEINDIENST, ANDREW MARSHALL, JIM MARSZALEK and EDWARD R. REESE JR." — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: "Full Committee Briefing: U.S. Hostage Policy — with ROGER D. CARSTENS and CHRISTOPHER J. O'LEARY" — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: "Hindsight Up Front: Six Months After the U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan — with MARK GREEN, DAVID PETRAEUS and JOHN MCLEOD SCARLETT" — House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, 11 a.m.: "Subcommittee Hearing: Keeping Our Sights on Mars Part 3 — with DANIEL DUMBACHER, JAMES FREE, PAUL K. MARTIN, WILLIAM RUSSELL and PATRICIA SANDERS" — The Association of the United States Army, 12 p.m.: "Army Climate Strategy — with PAUL FARNAN and PATRICK MURPHY" — Georgetown University, 12 p.m.: "Masculinity, National Security and International Relations: The Future of Security — with KARINE LEPILLEZ and ROBERT ULRICH NAGEL" — House Armed Services Committee, 2 p.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: Fiscal Year 2023 Strategic Forces Posture Hearing — with SASHA BAKER, JAMES DICKINSON, CHARLES RICHARD and GLEN VANHERCK"
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who wouldn't hesitate to name and shame us for our "fat finger" mistakes. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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