| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
President Joe Biden speaks on Feb. 10, 2022, in Culpeper, Va. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo | With help from Jacopo Barigazzi, Lili Bayer, Erin Banco and David Herszenhorn Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said a full Russian invasion of Ukraine could come before the end of the Beijing Olympics on Feb. 20, even as President JOE BIDEN today told his counterparts about Moscow's forces possibly launching an incursion in five days. "Any American in Ukraine should leave as soon as possible, and in any event in the next 24 to 48 hours," he said from the White House podium. "We don't know what's going to happen, but the risk is now high enough, and the threat is now immediate enough, that this is what prudence demands." There won't be a U.S. military effort to evacuate U.S. citizens from a Ukraine under siege, Sullivan asserted. Shortly before Sullivan spoke, PBS NewsHour's NICK SCHIFRIN reported the U.S. determined Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN had decided to invade Ukraine and communicated that decision to his forces. Sullivan said the U.S. had yet to determine that Putin took a "final" decision. Since then, NatSec Daily and our POLITICO colleagues have heard differing assessments of what Putin might do. NatSec Daily was told by a person familiar that President JOE BIDEN told Western leaders about the Feb. 16 date on an hourlong call today. Russia will start a physical assault on Ukraine as soon as Feb. 16, multiple U.S. officials confirmed to POLITICO, and Washington communicated to allies that it could be preceded by a barrage of missile strikes and cyberattacks. One person said the leaders' call indicated that cyberattacks are "imminent" and another said the intelligence is "specific and alarming." Sullivan mentioned that any attack on Ukraine could begin with "aerial bombing and missile attacks." Europeans, however, signaled to us that they have a different picture. A U.K. official said that "we have a different interpretation" of the Feb. 16 intelligence. Meanwhile, two European Union diplomats shared even more skeptical views, with one saying they "still refuse to buy it. It would be such a mistake by Putin. War is costly, Ukraine will fight them with everything." Asked whether an invasion is imminent, a senior official from an eastern EU country said it is "difficult to say." The official said that "the main idea is to be prepared with sanctions" and that "coordination and unity are key." It's possible the Feb. 16 piece of intelligence is raw and not the overall assessment of the United States, which could explain the yawning gap in expectations about just how soon Putin will attack, if at all. What is clear is that the tone from the White House is getting more severe — and more resigned — to the idea of Putin ordering a new phase in his war on Ukraine.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | BIDEN ANGERED MANY WITH AFGHANISTAN MONEY MOVE: Biden has proceeded to anger just about everyone with his decision to divvy up Afghanistan's $7 billion in assets frozen in the U.S. for humanitarian and legal purposes. At its core, Biden's executive order says the U.S. will use $3.5 billion of that money to provide desperately needed aid to millions of starving Afghans while directing the other half toward American victims of the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Moving the money will require U.S. financial institutions to transfer property in the United States belonging to Afghanistan's central bank into a consolidated account held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, according to a White House fact sheet. The administration "will seek to facilitate access to $3.5 billion of those assets for the benefit of the Afghan people and for Afghanistan's future," pending a court ruling. This immediately led to critical questions about the latter half. First, why is the U.S. taking money from suffering Afghan civilians to pay 9/11 victims? Second, how will that money be distributed equitably to the thousands of grieving families involved in years of painstaking litigation? Most experts we spoke to ripped Biden's team for taking Afghanistan's money during one the worst economic and humanitarian crises on Earth. "It's a very callous act. The people of Afghanistan were not responsible" for 9/11, said VALI NASR, formerly a senior adviser to the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. "This is very Trumpian at its core." "The U.S. government is choosing to inflict collective punishment on the hapless Afghan people by giving away half of the country's foreign exchange reserves. This is unfortunate" and "morally tenuous," ASFANDYAR MIR, a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, piled on. The only person we spoke to who supported the move was LISA CURTIS, former President DONALD TRUMP's top Afghanistan aide on the NSC. It's "a reasonable and sound approach to dealing with the issue," she texted us, adding it "represents the kind of creative approach necessary to address the humanitarian crisis in the country, while avoiding legitimizing or boosting the Taliban." The administration says the $3.5 billion that will go to help Afghans will be kept out of the Taliban's hands: "we are going to be ensuring that there are very robust controls in place so that it's not going to the Taliban; it's going to be used for the benefit of the Afghan people," a senior administration official told reporters anonymously per the NSC's ground rules. BRETT EAGLESON, son of 9/11 victim BRUCE EAGLESON who speaks on behalf of many 9/11 families, told NatSec Daily that only one of the many 9/11-related cases — the Havlish case — is far enough along for the plaintiffs to get money. A decade ago, the plaintiffs received a judgment of roughly $7 billion in damages, and last year successfully got a U.S. marshal to serve the Federal Reserve of New York with a "writ of execution" to seize the frozen Afghan assets. It's therefore possible, Eagleson fears, that all the money will go to the 47 Havlish families and not the thousands of others expecting compensation. Eagleson and other families would prefer the U.S. put that money in a dedicated fund to more equitably disperse the billions. "My dad's death is no less valuable than another person's dad's death," he said. Asked what he thought about Afghans paying for the 9/11 victims, Eagleson said, "the Afghans had every opportunity to fight back against the Taliban," adding "I don't see how they can claim it as their money." He also believes the $3.5 billion earmarked for humanitarian aid in Afghanistan will most likely go to the Taliban. BIDEN 'REJECTING' CLAIMS ADMIN FAILED AFGHAN EVAC: Biden is "rejecting" assertions by senior military leaders that the administration failed to adequately prepare for the fall of Afghanistan and evacuation. "That's not what I was told," he said during an NBC News interview that aired Thursday night. Pressed by LESTER HOLT if Biden rejected what U.S. personnel told Army investigators, the president replied "Yes, I am," Biden said. "I am rejecting them." This comment followed reporting by The Washington Post's DAN LAMOTHE and ALEX HORTON about an Army investigation into the Taliban takeover and airlifts out of Kabul airport. Obtained by a Freedom of Information Act request, the report features commentary from the U.S. military commander of the operation and others stating key members of the White House and State Department failed to act with urgency. Biden further defended his administration's actions. "Look, there's no good time to get out, but if we had not gotten out, they acknowledge that we would have had to put a hell of a lot more troops back in," the president insisted. "It wasn't just 2,000, 4,000. We would have had to significantly increase the number of troops, and then you're back in this war of attrition." 'NOT MOVED THE NEEDLE': Sweden's State Secretary KARIN WALLENSTEEN told NatSec Daily that Russia's aggression toward Ukraine has "not moved the needle" on her country's considerations of joining NATO. "In a situation like this, more than ever, stability and predictability is important," she said in an interview shortly after meeting with her U.S. counterpart, national security adviser Jake Sullivan. "Our security policy is set.… We want to be a good, strong partner to NATO, but we're not looking to join." Wallensteen and her team also said the collective U.S.-European response toward the Kremlin depends on what Russia does. "We need to have different kinds of responses depending on what we are responding to," one of Wallensteen's aides told us. "It's not set." The state secretary added that planned sanctions on Russia will bite over time and, if Moscow's behavior doesn't change, they will have an effect "on the general living conditions in Russia, on the general public, as well." DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington's national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring retired Lt. Gen. MIKE NAGATA, formerly the commander of Special Operations Command Central and now at CACI. Nagata told us he's not a fan of alcohol, so when he winds down he'll pick up an ice-cold ginger ale. When he's sipping on that fizzy goodness, Nagata says he prefers to be "anyplace I can watch a movie or read a book that allows me brief escape and distraction from the real world." We hear ya, general, cheers!
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Lockheed Martin's LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn more. | | | IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
| | | RUSSIA'S NAVAL BUILDUP: Our own PAUL McLEARY reports on the historic naval buildup of Russian ships in the Black Sea and Mediterranean — one of the largest seen since the Cold War. Russian cruisers, submarines and other warships are now in place to assist the more than 100,000 troops stationed along Ukraine's border. "Moscow's opening of a potential new front to Ukraine's south came into full view Wednesday, when six amphibious ships moved into the Black Sea as Russia declared off-limits swaths of international waters surrounding occupied Crimea and the Ukrainian city of Odessa," McLeary wrote. "We haven't seen a movement like this in recent history," in the Black Sea, said retired Adm. JAMES FOGGO, who commanded all U.S. and NATO naval forces in Europe until retiring in 2020. FIVE CHILDREN KILLED IN SYRIA RAID: The U.S. special operations forces raid last week that killed Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi also resulted in the deaths of at least five children inside the building, per The Washington Post's OMAR NEZHAT, SARAH DADOUCH, KAREEM FAHIM and JOYCE SOHYUN LEE. Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY previously said that al-Qurayshi killed a total of three people — his wife and two children — when he detonated a suicide vest on the building's third floor. Kirby also said it "appears as if" a child was killed on the second floor, where al-Qurayshi's lieutenant and his wife barricaded themselves and engaged U.S. troops. The Pentagon has insisted that all deaths during the operation were caused by al-Qurayshi's detonation and the barricaded lieutenant. But Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said in a statement last week that, "given the complexity of this mission, we will take a look at the possibility our actions may also have resulted in harm to innocent people." As the Post notes, the Biden administration "has not explained the discrepancy between its estimate of dead children and the tally provided by local first responders and UNICEF, who said that as many as six children were killed. The task of arriving at a precise count has been complicated, in part, by the poor state of some of the children's remains." U.N. SAYS JOURNALISTS DETAINED IN KABUL: The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees announced that two journalists on assignment with the U.N. agency, as well as several Afghan nationals working with them, have been detained in Kabul, per Reuters. "We are doing our utmost to resolve the situation, in coordination with others. We will make no further comment given the nature of the situation," UNHCR tweeted. National Directorate of Security spokesperson KHALIL HAMRAZ said the Taliban administration's security and intelligence agency has "no information" about the journalists and Afghans, including "when and where they have disappeared." He added that Taliban officials "haven't reached any information yet; we are trying to find information." The Wall Street Journal's MARGHERITA STANCATI and DION NISSENBAUM later reported that the Taliban is holding at least nine foreigners in custody in the Afghan capital, including one American and several British citizens. Among that group are the two journalists on assignment with UNHCR — a British reporter and an Irish photographer — along with an Afghan journalist and an Afghan driver with whom they were working.
| | | WHITE HOUSE HUDDLES WITH CHIP INDUSTRY: PETER HARRELL , the National Security Council's senior director for international economics and competitiveness, has been in recent contact with chip industry leaders, "learning about their exposure to Russian and Ukrainian chipmaking materials and urging them to find alternative sources," per Reuters' ALEXANDRA ALPER and KAREN FREIFELD. In those talks, White House officials are warning the chip industry "to diversify its supply chain" in advance of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, "in case Russia retaliates against threatened U.S. export curbs by blocking access to key materials," Alper and Freifeld write. U.S. concerns about potential Russian retaliation have ramped up since a report published earlier this month by Techcet, a market research group, estimated that more than 90 percent of neon supplies used by U.S. semiconductor manufacturers come from Ukraine, while 35 percent of palladium supplies come from Russia.
| | | |   | | | | | | U.S. VS. FRANCE ON INDONESIA FIGHTER: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported that a U.S.-France fight over Indonesia's fighter competition burst out into the open when Paris claimed victory, Washington unveiled its latest pitch and Jakarta made clear it's not over yet. On a recent visit to Jakarta, French Defense Minister FLORENCE PARLY signed a deal with Defense Minister PRABOWO SUBIANTO for the first of what French President EMMANUEL MACRON announced on Twitter would be 42 Rafale fighters. But Subianto clarified that it was just for six fighters and a bigger contract is coming for 36 more aircraft. Hours later, the State Department made the U.S. proposal public, announcing it had notified Congress that it approved a $13.9 billion deal for 36 upgraded Boeing F-15 fighters. Indonesia's "serious drive of defense procurement" reinforces how China is seen as a "very substantial" threat to the region, said RICHARD ABOULAFIA, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory. However, Indonesia has a long history of kicking the tires on big-ticket acquisition programs and not following through.
| | | SENATORS SAY CIA HAS SECRET COLLECTION PROGRAM: Sens. RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) and MARTIN HEINRICH (D-N.M.) , members of the Senate Intelligence Committee, claim that the CIA has a secret program that collects Americans' data. The lawmakers didn't disclose what was in the program. But they did release a declassified and redacted April 2021 letter to top intelligence officials claiming "the CIA has secretly conducted its own bulk program," authorized under Executive Order 12333, rather than the laws passed by Congress. The program is "entirely outside the statutory framework that Congress and the public believe govern this collection, and without any of the judicial, congressional or even executive branch oversight that comes from [Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act] collection." Both lawmakers have longed pushed for greater transparency about the U.S. intelligence community's collection practices. "Our letter also stressed that the public deserves to know more about the collection of this information," the lawmakers wrote. SENATORS OFFER NUCLEAR FUEL BANK: Sens. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) introduced a resolution to provide any Middle Eastern country access to nuclear fuel if it promises not to enrich uranium and reprocess it. "Modeled on the existing nuclear fuel bank created by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the establishment of a regional fuel bank supported by the resolution would allow the commercial development of nuclear power throughout the region while at the same time eliminating the need for dangerous and destabilizing domestic nuclear programs," reads a news release of the bill. The lawmakers say this measure would not only contain Iran's ability to make its first nuclear bomb, but also reduce the likelihood of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. "This resolution demonstrates there is bipartisan support for a broader, regional diplomatic approach to address Iran's nuclear program from a regional perspective putting forward norms which would allow Persian Gulf and other Middle Eastern states the ability to enjoy the benefits of nuclear power without fueling nuclear proliferation," Menendez, the Senate Foreign Relations chair, said in a statement. "There is no reason to enrich uranium if your goal is to have peaceful nuclear power. I believe this proposal will be well-received by our allies in the region and should be welcomed by Iran if peaceful nuclear power is truly what they desire," Graham added. GOP URGES BIDEN TO REJECT RUSSIA AND CHINA ON INF: In a Feb. 10 letter, top Republicans told Biden to ignore Russian and Chinese demands that the U.S. not place intermediate- and short-range missiles in the European and Indo-Pacific theaters, Defense News' JOE GOULD reported. "We are gravely concerned that any attempt to resurrect the INF Treaty or reimpose limitations on ground-launched missiles would catastrophically undermine American national security, encourage Russian aggression, and advance a flawed view of security that sacrifices peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific," read the letter led by Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.). Signatories include Reps. MICHAEL TURNER (R-Ohio), MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.), and MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), respectively the leaders of the House Intelligence, Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees.
| | | SCHAKE SLAMS POTUS ON RUSSIA: KORI SCHAKE, who served on the National Security Council and at the State Department under former President GEORGE W. BUSH's administration, asserts in a New York Times op-ed today that the Biden administration's Russia policy has one big problem: Joe Biden, himself. "The insular nature of his decision-making, including his reliance on like-minded advisers, lacks rigorous thinking and fuels a kind of arrogance that can lead to unforced errors," Schake writes, and Biden's "casual suggestion last month that 'a minor incursion' by Russia might not draw a tough response required mopping up by the administration." But most of all, Schake takes issue with Biden's repeated declaration that U.S. troops will not move into Ukraine to defend the Eastern European country on its own territory. "Instead of ruling out U.S. military involvement within Ukraine, Mr. Biden could have focused on the fact that the United States and Canada already have forces in Ukraine helping train its military to defend its territory and sovereignty," Schake argues — adding that Biden also "missed an important opportunity to help Americans understand why we should care about what happens in Ukraine."
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn more. | | | | | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: MANDY SMITHBERGER is now a defense policy adviser to Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.). She most recently was a director at the Project On Government Oversight and is a Rep. JACKIE SPEIER (D-Calif.) alum. — SHIRA EFRON will become director of research at the Israel Policy Forum. She currently is a policy advisor at the Israel Policy Forum, as well as a senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, a special adviser on Israel at the RAND Corporation and a consultant with the United Nations country team in Jerusalem advising on Gaza access issues. — RYAN D. MCCARTHY , a former secretary of the Army, is joining the Washington, D.C., office of Syracuse University's Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs as a dean's scholar in residence.
| | | — MOHAMMED EL-KURD, The Nation: "Israeli Law & Torture: From Detained Minors to a Prison 'Torture Room'" — BENJAMIN WALLACE-WELLS, The New Yorker: " The New Doves on Ukraine" — LOVEDAY MORRIS, The Washington Post: "The Former Chancellor and Friend of Putin's at the Heart of Germany's Russia Struggle"
| | | — The Wilson Center, 9 a.m.: "The Wilson China Fellowship Conference 2022 — with ABRAHAM DENMARK, MARK GREEN, DAVID LAMPTON, LAURA ROSENBERGER and STEPHEN DEL ROSSO" — Lutheran Immigration and Refugee Service, 11 a.m.: "Press Conference: Veterans, Refugee Advocates, Afghan Evacuees Urge Congress to Pass Afghan Adjustment Act — with NADIA HASHIMI, MIKE JASON, HELAL MASSOMI, HANNA TRIPP, SHAWN VANDIVER, KRISH O'MARA VIGNARAJAH and MATT ZELLER" — The Project 2049 Institute, 12 p.m.: "Taiwan's Global Gravity: The Push and Pull of Coercive and Annihilative Cross-Strait Scenarios — with IAN EASTON, JOHN GASTRIGHT JR., SHIHOKO GOTO, BI-KHIM HSIAO, LELAND LAZARUS, ERIC LEE, HOWARD 'HOWIE' R. LIND, ELAINE LURIA, MICHAEL MAZZA, GARY J. SCHMITT, RANDALL G. SCHRIVER, STEVEN A. SHAPIRO and MARK STOKES" — The East-West Center, 1 p.m.: "North Korea and the Middle East: Lessons Learned for U.S.-North Korea Relations — with SUZANNE DIMAGGIO, SIEGFRIED HECKER, YAAKOV KATZ, SATU LIMAYE and KEITH LUSE"
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