| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | SCOOP — Alex Thompson has a must-read piece uncovering an internal White House investigation documenting a toxic work environment described by 14 current and former staffers who worked under ERIC LANDER, President JOE BIDEN's top science adviser, who they say bullied and demeaned subordinates. "The behavior," Thompson writes, "is at odds with Biden's Day-1 warning to his political appointees that anyone who disrespected their colleagues would be fired 'On the spot. No ifs, ands or buts.'" DEMS RETHINK 2022 — The most likely November election scenario is that Republicans win the House and Senate. On average since World War II, the president's party loses 26 House seats and four Senate seats in a midterm election. The traditional indicators still point toward a typical midterm for Biden: low presidential approval rating ( 42%), a Republican advantage over Democrats on the generic ballot ( 44%-42%), and more than twice as many Democrats retiring from the House as Republicans ( 29-13). But Democrats are beginning to whisper about something that sounds laughable to many observers: Maybe they can win the midterms. Some recent developments have started to pierce the conventional wisdom about a GOP wave: — Redistricting: Catastrophic losses from partisan gerrymandering that many Democrats feared have not materialized. Despite decrying the process and pushing reform in Congress, Democrats did not unilaterally disarm. The hyper-aggressive map recently released by New York Democrats made it clear that the party may come out ahead in the process nationally. "There aren't many breaks Dems *haven't* caught in redistricting so far," Dave Wasserman recently noted. — The economy: Inflation is still a top priority for voters and the main obstacle to Biden receiving higher marks on his handling of the economy. But unemployment is very low, growth is strong, and the latest jobs report was phenomenal. If inflation data released this Thursday shows a dip, Biden might be able to argue that the peak has been reached and the decline many economists predict this year is beginning. — The pandemic: The Omicron wave has crested and a return to relative normalcy could be in sight. — The GOP: As we outlined in detail Saturday, the Republican Party's focus on 2020, Jan. 6 and DONALD TRUMP is creating major headwinds. DOUG SOSNIK of Brunswick Group argues that "there would need to be a series of developments in order for the Democrats to defy history":
- The virus needs to be contained with the country returning to a new normal.
- Inflation needs to start going down by summer.
- The economy and the stock market need to maintain steady growth, particularly as interest rates begin to rise.
- The supply chain needs to return to normal.
- There is not a global crisis.
- Biden's job approval rating needs to be in the high 40s by summer.
- Republicans need to nominate unelectable general-election candidates and run lousy campaigns. They are capable of this and have done this in recent past cycles, choosing far-right candidates such as TODD AKIN or CHRISTINE O'DONNELL who ended up losing in the general election.
- Trump and Republicans need to keep talking about the 2020 election.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: Washington is talking about price setting of medicines, but it won't stop insurers from shifting costs to you. And it will risk access to medicines and future cures. Instead, let's cap your out-of-pocket costs, stop middlemen from pocketing your discounts and make insurance work for you. Let's protect patients. It's the right choice. Learn more. | | | KRISTIAN RAMOS of Autonomy Strategies said he's "more optimistic than others." He said the "economy is incredible" and Democrats will have a better story to tell about the Biden record this year if they pass some version of Build Back Better, get children under 5 vaccinated, confirm the first Black woman to the Supreme Court and highlight the implementation of the infrastructure law. But he's bewildered by what he sees as his party's restraint when it comes to attacking the GOP. "When are we going to start hitting Republicans?" he asked. "When are we going to start pointing out these people are fascist light and don't believe in democracy?" CHUCK ROCHA, the president of Solidarity Strategies who is working on several House races, pointed to two key dynamics. "If you combine redistricting and [Republicans] nominating crazy people, that's how we might win," he said. "Though I wouldn't want these odds at a poker table." The most significant argument among the Democrats we surveyed was over how to handle Trump. There have only been two midterm elections since World War II when the president's party gained House seats: in 1998, as Republicans pursued an unpopular impeachment against then-President BILL CLINTON, and in 2002, when the country rallied around GEORGE W. BUSH's post-9/11 leadership. In both cases, unusual nationalized elections around a single dominant issue helped a president overcome the typical midterm backlash. The big unsettled strategic debate for Democrats is whether Trump/MAGA should become that issue in 2022. Some prominent strategists argue that the 2018 and 2020 elections, with Trump at the center, saw massive turnout increases for both parties but that favored Democrats overall. Under this theory, the only hope for Democrats is to reassemble the 2018 and 2020 anti-Trump majority, and that means turning the election into a referendum on Trump, or at least Trumpism. These strategists want to highlight the work of the Jan. 6 committee and the work of prosecutors investigating the former president, focus attention on Republican primary debates where candidates outbid each other in their allegiance to Trump positions that are unpopular in a general election, nationalize Trump's campaign-trail outrages, and spend heavily to make MAGA candidates who endorse the "Big Lie" the face of the GOP. Other Democrats are wary. "I'm not sure the evidence to date suggests elections around Trump do it for us," said a prominent Democratic strategist, "but that could change as the GOP legitimizes Jan. 6." Vulnerable House Democrats on the frontline have also repeatedly pushed back on such a strategy, arguing that in 2018 they flipped more than 40 House seats because they talked about issues, not Trump. Indeed, many of them balk at using this playbook, as we reported a while back. Ramos offered a subtle distinction. "Forget about Trump. He's not on the ballot," he said. "Trump is already in there in voters' heads. He plays such an outsized role in society. He's there. Why am I going to focus on someone who is already a bogeyman? Run against [GREG] ABBOTT. Run against [MARCO] RUBIO. Run against [RON] DESANTIS. Run against MAGA, not against Trump." Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. JOIN US — White House climate adviser GINA MCCARTHY will join POLITICO Live at 1:30 p.m. Thursday for a virtual interview with White House correspondent Laura Barrón-López to discuss Biden's challenging path ahead to fulfill his ambitious climate agenda. The interview is part of "The Long Game: Who Will Solve the Climate Crisis?" event, which will kick off at 12:45 p.m. with a panel moderated by Global Insider author Ryan Heath discussing fresh data and insights from the POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll on what citizens really think about how governments and businesses are dealing with climate and sustainability. RSVP here to watch
| | | | A message from PhRMA:   Government price setting threatens patient access to medicines and innovation. Instead, let's cap out-of-pocket costs and stop middlemen from pocketing discounts. Learn more. | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY: — 10:15 a.m.: The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 1:30 p.m.: Biden will participate in a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ. — 3:15 p.m.: Biden and Scholz will hold a joint press conference. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 1:45 p.m. THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m., with votes on a couple of judicial nominations at 5:30 p.m. THE HOUSE will meet at noon, with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD: — Wednesday: The president will participate in a roundtable with utilities CEOs to discuss his agenda. — Thursday: Biden will travel to promote his agenda. — Friday: Biden will travel to Camp David, where he will stay over the weekend.
| | | | HAPPENING THURSDAY – A LONG GAME CONVERSATION ON THE CLIMATE CRISIS : Join POLITICO for back-to-back conversations on climate and sustainability action, starting with a panel led by Global Insider author Ryan Heath focused on insights gleaned from our POLITICO/Morning Consult Global Sustainability Poll of citizens from 13 countries on five continents about how their governments should respond to climate change. Following the panel, join a discussion with POLITICO White House Correspondent Laura Barrón-López and Gina McCarthy, White House national climate advisor, about the Biden administration's climate and sustainability agenda. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
| 
U.S. soldiers exit a transport aircraft Sunday in Rzeszow, Poland, as President Joe Biden deploys troops to the eastern flank of NATO. | Omar Marques/Getty Images | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Keep Country First Policy Action, an outside group founded by allies of Rep. ADAM KINZINGER (R-Ill.), is launching an ad campaign backing the bipartisan Senate group's work on Electoral Count Act reform. The six-figure ads go live today and will target lawmakers on Capitol Hill, urging them on in their work. "We all saw how bad actors used misinformation about the Electoral Count Act to inspire the attack on the Capitol on January 6th," group board member and former Rep. BARBARA COMSTOCK (R-Va.) will say in a release that goes out today. "Congress must act to reform the 135 year old law to remove any supposed ambiguity that could be exploited in future elections." Watch one of the ads here ALL POLITICS PARTY ALLEGIANCE — Our colleague Sabrina Rodríguez has an important story this morning on a topic that doesn't get enough attention: Trump and the GOP's surprisingly strong performance among Latino voters in the 2020 election, and the question of whether the Democratic Party's hold on that demographic is slipping. Sabrina zeroes in on a slate of Republican women running for Congress in districts along Texas' southern border and writes that it's "some of the clearest evidence that Trump's 2020 performance there may not have been an anomaly, but rather a sign of significant Republican inroads among Texas Hispanics — perhaps not enough to threaten the Democratic advantage among those voters, but enough to send ripples of fear through a party that is experiencing erosion among Hispanics across the country." CUOMO PLOTS COMEBACK — Sources tell WSJ's Jimmy Vielkind that former New York Gov. ANDREW CUOMO and his team "are intensifying an effort to revive his public standing, including discussing how to make his first public appearance since resigning in August … Mr. Cuomo and his remaining aides have been calling former allies and political operatives to complain about New York Attorney General LETITIA JAMES, who oversaw an investigation that concluded Mr. Cuomo sexually harassed 11 women. Mr. Cuomo has been attempting to determine the right forum for a speech or appearance that would mark his return to public life." ABRAMS MASK FIRESTORM — Perhaps it seemed innocuous enough: Over the weekend Georgia gubernatorial candidate STACEY ABRAMS posted a picture on Twitter of her sitting in front of a group of elementary school students to mark Black History Month. The problem: Abrams was not wearing a mask, and the students were. The since-deleted pic triggered a fierce backlash and charges of hypocrisy against Abrams, who's long implored Georgians to mask up. Abrams' "campaign said she wore a mask to the event and only removed it so she could be heard by students watching remotely and for a handful of photos on the condition that everyone around her was wearing face-coverings," Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein writes. "At the heart of the back-and-forth is a broader debate over coronavirus policies during the 2022 midterms. [Gov. BRIAN] KEMP and fellow Republicans contend aggressive efforts to roll back economic restrictions and push schools to reopen helped Georgia's economy quickly rebound. Abrams and Democrats have blamed the rapid spread of the virus on Kemp's 'inaction' and refusal to take more steps to curb the virus."
| | | | A message from PhRMA:   Let's protect patients. It's the right choice. Learn more. | | | THE WHITE HOUSE ISRAEL TRIP IN THE WORKS — The president will visit Israel "'later this year' after Israeli Prime Minister NAFTALI BENNETT invited him to the country," during a phone conversation between the two leaders Sunday. The White House added that the two also "discussed the shared security and other challenges in the Middle East region, including the threat posed by Iran and its proxies." More from CNN's Donald Judd STATE OF THE UNIONS — This morning, the White House Task Force on Worker Organizing and Empowerment is releasing its first report of recommendations to "promote worker organizing and collective bargaining for federal employees, and for workers employed by public and private-sector employers." The task force led by Harris and Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH was created by Biden last April to find ways the administration could strengthen the power of unions. Senior officials have told Playbook the administration sees the growth of union interest around the country as part of a revitalization in an area that has seen declining membership and attention. Politically, it's also a chance for Democrats to work to preserve a constituency that's been historically friendly to the party. The report includes just under 70 recommendations, including ensuring federal contract dollars aren't spent on anti-union campaigns for the Labor Department, OMB, Defense and HHS. The White House says Biden has already accepted the recommendations and that in six months the group is expected to send another report to the Oval Office on how action items are being implemented. AMERICA AND THE WORLD EYES ON EMMANUEL — "The standoff with Russia over Ukraine enters a critical phase this week," NYT's Roger Cohen and Andrew Kramer note . "Diplomatic avenues are being feverishly explored and the outlines of potential solutions, still amorphous, may be taking form. Biden meets Monday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and President EMMANUEL MACRON of France, at the same time, will visit his Russian counterpart, VLADIMIR PUTIN, in Moscow before traveling to Kyiv. "With the Biden administration staking out a hard line, Germany lying low and Mr. Putin seemingly determined to force a solution to Russia's security grievances, it is Mr. Macron who has positioned himself at the center of the diplomacy in Europe. To Moscow, he is a 'quality interlocutor,' as Mr. Putin called Mr. Macron. … For Mr. Macron the chance to lead the effort to create a new European security architecture has placed him front and center on perhaps the biggest stage of his presidency, just two months before elections." JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH DREAMING OF 2023 — Our Olivia Beavers and Kyle Cheney write that House Republicans are grappling with what to do with the Jan. 6 committee if they retake the chamber this fall. Many just want to let it die, but some prominent conservatives like Reps. MADISON CAWTHORN (N.C.) and MATT GAETZ (Fla.) want to reorient the panel toward their own ends. "Reshaping it into a political cudgel against Democrats, as compelling as it might sound to some conservatives, will take time and focus from a party that wants to pursue its own policy agenda should it vault back to power as expected."
| | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Barack Obama did not appear to be in "beach mode" when it comes to the construction of his Hawaii beachside mansion. Glenn Youngkin's campaign account lashed out at a teenager on Twitter — and Ralph Northam — in an online spat Saturday. Brian Stelter appeared to get emotional as he spoke hopefully about the future of CNN. Antony Blinken's first year in the job got the NYT treatment. TRUMP AIDE MOVE — Susie Wiles is now co-chair of Mercury Public Affairs. She is chair of the Save America PAC and is a Trump campaign, Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott alum. She'll continue to head Trump's Save America PAC. More from Florida Politics … Her email announcement, via Alex Isenstadt FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Democratic Attorneys General Association has restructured its leadership team to a presidential model, elevating Sean Rankin to the role of president and Michelle Ortiz to executive director. In addition, DAGA is bringing on a slate of new hires: Jonathan Sclarsic will be COO and general counsel, Britteny Jenkins will be policy director, and JP Boyle will be development director. TRANSITIONS — Jessica Rihani is joining Mindset as COO. She previously was COO of Signal Group. … Kivvit is adding Jalisa Washington-Price and Arielle Goren as managing directors. Washington-Price previously was VP of political and advocacy at iHeartMedia, and is a Biden-Harris alum. Goren previously founded Juno Strategies and worked for Uber policy and comms. They're also adding Christine Lee as a senior associate and Mashal Hashem as an associate. … … Stasha Rhodes is joining Keefe Singiser Partners as a partner. She previously was director of democracy campaigns at the Hub Project. … Drew Preston and Taylor Meredith are joining Duke Energy. Preston will be director of federal government affairs and is a Associated Industries of Florida, Florida Chamber of Commerce and U.S. Chamber of Commerce alum. Meredith will be senior manager of federal government affairs and is a Senate EPW Committee and EPA alum. … Emily Teitelbaum is joining the Libra Group as chief comms officer. She previously was VP for public affairs comms at Wells Fargo, and is an Edelman and Jim Webb alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) … Monica Medina … Gay Talese (9-0) … Dave Levinthal … former Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) … POLITICO's Laura Barrón-López and Patricia Iscaro … Beth Frerking … Bloomberg's Jeff Kearns and Colleen Murphy … former Reps. Allen West (R-Fla.), Stephen Fincher (R-Tenn.), Doc Hastings (R-Wash.) and Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) … John Criscuolo of Squire Patton Boggs … Emily Hampsten … Patrick Ferrise … Judge James Gilbert of the U.S. Postal Service (61) … Carleton Bryant … Community Change's Jasmine Nazarett … Jessica Kershaw … Miguel L'Heureux … Jeanne McCann … Tiffany Win … Christine Grimaldi … Jeff Marschner … Invariant's Mary Beth Stanton Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: Washington is talking about price setting of medicines, but it won't stop insurers from shifting costs to you. And it will risk access to medicines and future cures. Instead, let's cap your out-of-pocket costs, stop middlemen from pocketing your discounts and make insurance work for you. Let's protect patients. It's the right choice. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment