| | | | | | | Presented By Facebook | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By the Axios Politics team ·Feb 20, 2022 | | 🇺🇸 Welcome back to Sneak. George Washington was born 290 years ago this week in Westmoreland County, Virginia. Smart Brevity™ count: 1372 words ... 5 minutes. Edited by Margaret Talev | | | | | | 1 big thing: Biden seeks a foil |  | | | Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios | | | | Searching for a strategy to avoid a 2022 midterm disaster, advisers to President Biden have discussed elevating a unifying Republican foil not named Donald Trump, Axios' Hans Nichols and Jonathan Swan report. Why it matters: Biden confidants worry that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is too unknown, that Biden won't demonize Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell because of their longstanding and collegial relationship, and that elevating Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could backfire. - Biden isn't on the ballot in November. But if voters see the elections as a referendum on the last two years, it could hurt Democrats across the ticket and cost their party control of Congress.
- Biden advisers and Hill allies told Axios voters are more likely to side with the president if he's compared to an alternative.
Between the lines: Team Biden's muscle memory is to elevate and focus on the best foil Democrats have ever been gifted — Trump. - But as Terry McAuliffe's loss in the Virginia governor's race showed last fall, running against an out-of-office Trump won't cut it with voters. "It would be a mistake to run against Trump in the 2022 elections," close Biden ally, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), told Axios.
- Biden advisers know they need to bring Republicans back into the fray and interrupt the ceaseless news cycles about Democratic infighting. They want to avoid inside baseball stories about the president as a legislative tactician dealing with recalcitrant moderate senators.
What we're hearing: Some Biden advisers are reluctant to contest every midterm race on DeSantis' signature issue — COVID-19 — because the Biden administration's approaches on vaccine and mask mandates may be a political liability with some swing voters. - Biden will likely still invoke Trump when the setting makes sense — as he did on his Jan. 6 anniversary speech — but advisers do not expect him to run the Trump-obsessed McAuliffe playbook.
- Some White House officials are optimistic that Biden's numbers may creep slightly upwards if the omicron variant is, indeed, the last wave of COVID. But it's not clear such a boost would come soon enough or be powerful enough.
- Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii) told Axios: "I wish that we could just find one face that we could point to, such as with Donald Trump... maybe a composite."
- Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told Axios McConnell "is, for sure, no Donald Trump, I want to make that 100% clear... but he is a figure that does represent a sharp difference from the Biden agenda."
What they're saying: Celinda Lake, who polled for Biden during the 2020 campaign and continues to work with the DNC, said Democrats won't get far by raising one individual foil — not even a figure as polarizing as Trump. - She advocates drawing a broader contrast with the "MAGA faction" — including Republicans "who supported the violent insurrection" and now want to pardon Jan. 6 rioters.
- "That's a much better foil than just talking about picking one obscure congressional leader that nobody will know anyway, or a future presidential nominee that nobody will know anyway," Lake said. "Trump is not on the ballot ... These 'MAGA faction' candidates are."
The bottom line: Biden may not find a truly effective GOP foil until after the midterm election. - A GOP-controlled House would allow Biden to pick daily fights and present his policies as an alternative.
- The last two Democratic presidents won re-election after losing the House in the mid-term election.
Share this story. |     | | | | | | 2. The foreign agent trap |  | | | Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios | | | | Some of the nation's most prominent nonprofit and advocacy groups tell the Justice Department they could be branded "foreign agents" unless DOJ changes its approach to the Foreign Agents Registration Act, Axios' Lachlan Markay reports. The big picture: When the Koch network's Americans for Prosperity goes in on a joint statement with the Natural Resources Defense Council and the ACLU, it's probably a five-alarm fire. Why it matters: Foreign governments do provide funding to scores of prominent U.S. nonprofits, some of which have been scrutinized for the influence exerted by those foreign patrons. - But a number are warning DOJ that overzealous enforcement of foreign agent laws could chill free speech and politicize transparency laws.
- The warnings came in numerous comments submitted to DOJ last week as it considers changes to FARA regulations.
How we got here: Think-tank funding, in particular, has long been seen as a tool used by foreign governments to surreptitiously influence U.S. policy and public opinion. - In early 2020, DOJ released an advisory opinion spelling out conditions under which U.S. nonprofits that receive foreign government funding must register as foreign agents.
- The National Wildlife Federation was forced to register as a result, due to a grant it received from the Norwegian government.
- While the opinion simply applied existing law, FARA compliance experts saw it as a turning point in DOJ's approach to foreign-funded nonprofits in the U.S.
What's happening: DOJ is now soliciting comments from stakeholders and the public, and nonprofits and their representatives are warning of dire consequences for American charities and advocacy groups. | | | | | | | | 3. Charted: Trump endorsement tracker |  Data: Axios research. Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios Former President Trump has now endorsed more than 100 GOP candidates on 2022 ballots, as he seeks to build an unprecedented legacy for an ex-U.S. president by shaping his party's future, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. - Texas' March 1 primary, approaching fast, drove a slew of Trump endorsements over the past week and took him into triple digits.
Why it matters: The midterms present a big test for Trump's post-presidential potency in GOP politics — and set the table for his role in 2024. The big picture: Trump has backed dozens of incumbents but also at least a dozen primary challengers to incumbent Republicans, targeting those who voted for his impeachment or conviction as part of his effort to purge "disloyal" Republicans from the ranks. - In several cases in the U.S. House and state legislatures, incumbents have opted to retire rather than risk losing to Trump-backed insurgents.
- Trump also has picked favorites in crowded primaries for some open Senate seats, including Reps. Ted Budd in North Carolina and Mo Brooks in Alabama.
- He's not yet endorsed in major races in Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Missouri.
What they're saying: Trump spokesperson Taylor Budowich told Axios in a statement that Trump's endorsement "is the most powerful and valuable asset in American politics." But, but, but: Trump has struggled to maintain the reach he had with voters in previous elections after being banned from mainstream social media platforms following the Jan. 6 attack. | | | | | | | | A message from Facebook | | Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations | | |  | | | | Paige is one of many experts working on privacy at Facebook — to give you more control over your information. Hear more from Paige on why Facebook supports updating regulations on the internet's most pressing challenges, including federal privacy legislation. | | | | | | 4. Worthy of your time |  | | | Vice President Harris boards Air Force Two to Washington after the Munich Security Conference. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP | | | | 🇺🇦 Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., told CBS' "Face the Nation" that had the West responded to the annexation of Crimea with more "harsh" sanctions in 2014 and 2015 perhaps they would have "more peaceful items to discuss" today, Andrew reports in today's Sneak roundup. - Secretary of State Tony Blinken, also on the show, told Margaret Brennan simply, "No," when asked whether there would be any consideration of ceding Crimea to the Russian Federation to avoid war.
🕊 Blinken said on CNN's "State of the Union" that Biden is "prepared to engage President Putin at any time, in any format, if that can help prevent a war." 📊 "I'm gonna win without him," Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) predicted in an interview with The State of Columbia, after former President Trump endorsed her primary challenger Katie Arrington. 🦠 The CDC has left unpublished substantial portions of the data it collects on coronavirus hospitalizations, vaccines and wastewater that could help state and local governments more effectively combat the pandemic, the N.Y. Times reports. - A CDC spokesperson told The Times that some of the data "isn't ready for prime time."
🐘 Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), asked by Maria Bartiromo on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" about his openness to running on a ticket with former President Trump, said that "everybody wants to be on President Trump's bandwagon, without any question." - "I am not looking for a seat on a ticket at this point," Scott said. "I am, however, looking to be reelected in South Carolina. So my hope is that you win next Friday's football game before thinking about any other one."
| | | | | | | | 5. Pic du jour |  | | | Photo: Kenny Holston/Getty Images | | | | Demonstrators gathered at the Lincoln Memorial today to stand in solidarity with Ukraine, and call on President Biden to take a stronger stance on deterring a Russian invasion. | | | | | | | | A message from Facebook | | Why Facebook supports updated internet regulations | | | | | | | | Paige is one of many experts working on privacy at Facebook — to give you more control over your information. Hear more from Paige on why Facebook supports updating regulations on the internet's most pressing challenges, including federal privacy legislation. | | | | 🚀 We'll be off tomorrow for Presidents Day and back Tuesday night. Please share the word: Family, friends and colleagues can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' free local and national newsletters through this link. |  | Bring the strength of Smart Brevity® to your team — more effective communications, powered by Axios HQ. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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