| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | DAY FIVE — The latest on the ground in Ukraine, via the NYT's blog-style running updates: "With a three-mile-long convoy of Russian military vehicles pressing down on Kyiv, a Ukrainian delegation arrived at the border with Belarus on Monday for talks with Russia even as President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY expressed little hope that the meeting would bring an end to the conflict, which has killed more than 350 civilians since the invasion began. … "The Ukrainian forces, now getting the kind of military assistance from abroad that its leader has been pleading for since before the invasion, have managed to defend Kyiv and other major cities despite being outgunned and outnumbered. But even as it offered talks, Russia has shown little interest in de-escalating, and military experts have also cautioned that thousands of better-trained Russian soldiers have not entered the fight." Of note: Zelenskyy, who will not attend today's session with Russia (which began minutes ago), is calling for Ukraine to be granted membership to the European Union. Re: the plummeting ruble: "The Russian Central Bank has ordered the Moscow stock exchange to remain closed all day, citing 'the developing situation.'" And according to WaPo: "Belarus is preparing to send soldiers into Ukraine in support of the Russian invasion as soon as Monday, a U.S. official said, in a move that increases tensions." THE BACKLASH — Europe's continent-wide reaction against Russia's invasion was the big story on Sunday. Outside of the 8 p.m. time slot on Fox News, there was little evidence of support for VLADIMIR PUTIN's war: "Vladimir Putin has killed Swedish neutrality and German pacifism in a single weekend." — Samuel Ramani BIDEN'S NEW REALITY — Foreign policy crises have a way of reshuffling the priorities of a president. JOE BIDEN's standoff with Putin happened to come along just when Biden had lost some urgency in confronting his three big domestic threats. The pandemic is becoming endemic. There's not much Biden can actually do about inflation. And the key senator standing in the way of Biden's domestic agenda remains immovable. While the war in Ukraine is just five days old, administration officials and Biden allies are starting to grapple with the ways in which Biden's presidency may be fundamentally altered. What Biden world is eager to talk about: Biden is an Atlanticist who likes to brag about how he stayed in touch with European leaders while out of office from 2017 to 2021. He is a creature of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Munich Security Conference. He came up in politics immersed in the debates of the Cold War, which are now newly relevant. When he said recently that "the United States will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of American power," he could have been lifting the line from one of his 1988 presidential campaign speeches. Biden, in this view, is uniquely suited for the new role that has been thrust upon him, which, in the words of Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), is "to rally the West in the face of Russian aggression." It was Biden and his team's patience and close consultation with European allies that has led to the extraordinary unity now on display. Biden's patience waiting to impose sanctions until after the invasion, even in the face of intense criticism, has been vindicated because Putin would have pointed to preemptive sanctions as a provocation and a reason to invade. Biden said that Germany would abandon the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline if Putin attacked and he was right, because he had been engaged in quiet diplomacy on the issue all along. Biden's surging of forces into NATO countries pushed other countries to do the same. Biden's leadership on sanctions helped reluctant allies follow along. All of it was done without shaming and finger pointing. While Biden's national security apparatus often gets criticized for being bogged down in deliberation without decision, that focus on intense consultation was rewarded by the Europeans. As one Biden official noted, their team learned from the experience of withdrawing troops from Afghanistan when Europeans were outraged by the lack of coordination. This is the contrast with DONALD TRUMP that Biden promised. "Can you imagine a former president complimenting Osama bin Laden the day after 9/11?" Coons asked, referring to Trump's post-invasion comments about Putin. There's a lot of pride right now among Democrats in how Biden has handled the crisis so far. What Biden world isn't eager to talk about: In a word: sacrifice. Globalization has its downsides. Biden has tried to prepare Americans for the energy shock that they are likely to encounter from Russia's further isolation. But Biden allies tell us that Democrats in Congress and the voting public may not be ready for the difficulties ahead. Some of the landmines Dems are sweating: — Climate change: Some Biden advisers fear that if Russian gas and oil is cut off for Europe, which will look to the U.S. for help, then American politics may turn sharply against action on climate change in favor of energy security, a point Republicans are already hammering. —Worsening Inflation for staples: Ukraine is a major grain producer and Dems fear the war could disrupt grain sales enough to push staples like bread up 30-50% before the midterms. That would be on top of recent record price surges. They also fear gasoline prices could increase another third or more. — Return to Riyadh: When it comes to replacing Russian oil, Biden's options are limited. Dems fear that the most obvious country to turn to for help is America's old friend, Saudi Arabia, the number three oil producer — behind the U.S. and Russia — and run by MOHAMMED BIN SALMAN, the man who ordered the brutal murder of journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI. Last year, the White House, after declining to sanction MBS, said it would "recalibrate," not "rupture" the U.S.-Saudi relationship. Most elected Democrats have taken a hardline position against MBS and will see any outreach to Saudi Arabia as a bitter pill.
| | A message from the American Chemistry Council: Through bold action, we can solve great problems. That's why America's Plastic Makers® created "5 Actions for Sustainable Change" – a comprehensive national strategy that would move the United States toward a sustainable, circular economy in which plastics are made to be remade. Learn more. | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Bruce Mehlman is out with a new deck on the Russian invasion's impact on politics, policy, business and more. We have a first look in Playbook this morning . Bruce sees "minimal 'rally around the commander-in-chief'" effect "given U.S. not attacked." The potential upside for Biden, if he executes well, is that he's seen as "strong Wartime Leader rallying West vs aggression," like George H. W. Bush in the Gulf War. The potential downside, if things go awry: "echoes Afghan withdrawal, questions of competence," like Jimmy Carter and the hostage crisis. "The biggest angle I am watching (beyond nuclear saber-rattling and the central bank squeeze) is the potential divest movement," he tells Playbook. ABOUT PUTIN'S NUKE THREAT: U.S. officials tell Playbook that they are still analyzing and trying to understand the details of Putin's statement and that no firm conclusions have been reached that it represents a specific threat. NYT's Moscow bureau chief Anton Troianovski noted on PBS that macho talk about nukes is a staple of Russian political discourse: "If you watch Russian state television and you watch their news programs, they talk about the Russian nuclear arsenal quite a lot. They say things like we are the only country in the world that can reduce the United States to radioactive ash. That's a direct quote from recently. So I think in a way, Russians are used to this, especially the kind of more hawkish, conservative Russian sees the country's nuclear arsenal as kind of the thing that should give Russia rightful superpower status." On the other hand, AP's Robert Burns reports: "For years, some U.S. officials have worried that Putin, if faced with the prospect of losing a war in Europe, might resort to the use of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, thinking it would quickly bring the conflict to an end on his terms." HOW THE BIDEN ADMIN SEES THE RUSSIA CAMPAIGN — A few insights from U.S. officials who described their view of the war so far to Playbook: - The goal is decapitation and occupation. Biden's national security advisers have no doubt that Putin wants to take over the country and supplant the government. That was implicit in Putin's speech last week but everything he's done so far makes that clear.
- A combination of poor planning by the Russians and unexpectedly fierce and creative resistance by the Ukranians has surprised everyone. Ukrainian air defenses are still up and running. Russian vehicles literally ran out of gas as they pushed into Ukraine and the military had to bring forward fuel reserves much quicker than expected.
- But it's only day five. On Sunday, Russia had committed two-thirds of the combat power they had arrayed on the border with Ukraine. So they still had another third prepared to enter the country.
- Two things to watch for today and tomorrow:1. Can the Russian forces regain their momentum? They will learn and adapt and overcome. Does that happen tomorrow or does it take much longer? 2. How long can Kyiv hang on? The Russians haven't been able to crack through it so far.
"They are having problems. They lack diesel, they are proceeding way too slow and morale is obviously an issue." — an anonymous NATO official to CNN. John Harris in his latest "Altitude" column: "Relax, Democrats, Biden's presidency isn't screwed: Obama and Clinton showed that the White House offers nearly endless possibilities for political revival."
| | | | A message from the American Chemistry Council:   | | | Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Just a few days after Biden nominated KETANJI BROWN JACKSON for the Supreme Court, outside groups are prepping for the run-up to her confirmation hearings. The Biden-affiliated Building Back, together with Black Women's Leadership Collective and She Will Rise, are teaming up on a $1 million ad campaign in support of Jackson. The ads push Jackson's biography and credentials, especially her time as a public defender. (Watch the first one-minute ad here.) Jackson backers are girding themselves for attacks, with some of them particularly worried about broadsides that at least indirectly invoke her race and gender. Expect more outside air cover for her in the coming weeks. BIDEN'S MONDAY: — 8:55 a.m.: The president will leave New Castle, Del., to return to the White House, arriving at 9:50 a.m. — 10:30 a.m.: Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 11:15 a.m.: Biden will have a call with international allies on Russia/Ukraine. — 2 p.m.: The Bidens will host a Black History Month celebration in the East Room with Harris, several Cabinet members and many other elected officials and dignitaries. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 3 p.m. THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m., when Sen. PATRICK LEAHY (D-Vt.) will read President GEORGE WASHINGTON's farewell address. The chamber will then take up the Women's Health Protection Act of 2021, the almost certainly doomed measure to codify Roe v. Wade, with a cloture vote on the motion to proceed at 5:30 p.m. THE HOUSE will meet at 2 p.m., with votes postponed until 6:30 p.m. BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD: — Tuesday: The president will deliver the State of the Union address. — Wednesday: The Bidens will travel to Superior, Wis., to tout the bipartisan infrastructure law and "Building a Better America." — Thursday: Biden will hold a Cabinet meeting, with Harris also attending.
| | | | HAPPENING TODAY: A WOMEN RULE INTERVIEW: Join Cecilia Rouse, chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, and Morning Money author Kate Davidson for a conversation exploring President Biden's economic agenda, the administration's plans to tackle financial losses women suffered during the pandemic and what it will take to elevate more women to leadership ranks in the U.S. economy. SUBSCRIBE HERE. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Oleksandr Konovalov, an ambulance paramedic, performs CPR on a girl injured by the shelling in a residential area in eastern Ukraine, as her dad sits after arriving at the city hospital of Mariupol on Sunday, Feb. 27. The girl died. | Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | ALL POLITICS WHAT DEMS ARE WATCHING THIS WEEK — Progressives are hoping to put on a show of force in congressional primaries that could supply a jolt of momentum for candidates in the coming months. Tuesday's primary in Texas marks their first chance to mount a comeback, Holly Otterbein and Elena Schneider report. — Specifically in Texas: Democrats want to claw back Latino voters in South Texas who backed DONALD TRUMP in 2020. The party, write CNN's Maeve Reston and Nicole Chavez, see this first primary of 2022 "as an early test for the two parties." But early indications for Democrats look discouraging. — Speaking of the Lone Star State: NYT's Shane Goldmacher has an interesting read about GOP Rep. DAN CRENSHAW's new bind: He easily won his swingy district last election while Trump barely did; now, thanks to redistricting, his district is a lot redder. And, like many other GOP incumbents confronting newly redrawn district lines, Crenshaw faces a threat from his right flank. "Nearly 90 percent of the next House could be occupied by lawmakers who face almost no threat of losing a general election," Goldmacher writes.
| | | | A message from the American Chemistry Council:   | | | CONGRESS NO MORE HOUSE MASK MANDATE — Ahead of the SOTU, Speaker NANCY PELOSI is lifting the mandate on masks, pointing to new guidance issued by the chamber's attending physician. Katherine Tully-McManus has more. CHENEY UPS THE PRESSURE ON MCCARTHY — It won't be the third or even fourth biggest story this week, but expect Hill reporters and some lawmakers on Capitol Hill to press House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY on what he plans to do about Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) appearing at a white nationalist conference over the weekend. The GOP leader has a policy of only privately rebuking lawmakers for this kind of behavior — a strategy aimed at maintaining an image of GOP unity and, at the same time, avoid making enemies as he seeks the speakership. Enter Rep. LIZ CHENEY (R-Wyo.): She called out leadershipafter MTG posted her speech at the conference. "House GOP Leaders: Have you lost all sense of decency?" Cheney tweeted. It's also notable that RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL rebuked MTG over the weekend while McCarthy, with whom the RNC chair works closely, has kept quiet. TRUMP CARDS TELL US HOW YOU REALLY FEEL — Excerpts from former A.G. WILLIAM BARR's forthcoming tell-all are starting to roll out. NYT's Charlie Savage: "For his part, Mr. Barr portrays Mr. Trump as a president who — despite sometimes displaying 'the menacing mannerisms' of a strongman ruler as a 'schtick' to project an image of strength — had operated within guardrails set up by his advisers and achieved many conservative policy goals. But Mr. Trump 'lost his grip' after the election, he writes." "'He stopped listening to his advisers, became manic and unreasonable, and was off the rails,' Mr. Barr writes. 'He surrounded himself with sycophants, including many whack jobs from outside the government, who fed him a steady diet of comforting but unsupported conspiracy theories.'" WSJ with more Another tidbit, per @maggieNYT : "He recalls what's described as a running joke with [MIKE] POMPEO in which Pompeo would redirect Trump from yelling at him by saying he hoped people at FBI involved with the Russia probe were held accountable. Trump would go off on a tangent about the investigation." Meanwhile … "Donald Trump wins CPAC straw poll," by Meridith McGraw and Natalie Allison
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | A big move for POLITICO's best-in-class Congress team: Elana Schor is being promoted to deputy managing editor for Congress. Schor, a 2018 "Jeopardy champion " among her many other accomplishments, will be tasked with leading our congressional coverage to new heights, with plans to "expand and evolve our editorial ambitions on Capitol Hill through our existing products (and the exploration of new ones)." The newsroom memo A gift for all journalists (and anyone else spending time on the occupational hazard known as Twitter) : WaPo's Jose Del Real has come up with a handy flowchart for those critical few seconds after you've drafted your few lines of brilliance and before you hit the "Tweet" button. Mitt Romney called Marjorie Taylor Greene a "moron" on CNN's "State of the Union." The Daily Mail mistookSasha Obama for Aisha Tyler. SPOTTED: MSNBC's Ari Melber visiting Washington and dining with some frequent guests on his show, "The Beat." Per our tipster, attendees included: Neal Katyla, Margaret Carlson, Michael Steele, Yamiche Alcindor, Rita Braver and Donna Brazile. IN MEMORIAM — "Accomplished Washington journalist and long-time U Street resident Douglas Bernard Johnson , 57, passed away at his home on February 14, 2022. Doug, who went by Doug Bernard professionally, had fought a degenerative illness for several years. … In 1994, he was named the American Political Science Association's Barone Fellow in Media, which earned him a fellowship on Capitol Hill. Doug was paired with Minnesota Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone. … After his fellowship, Doug began work at C-SPAN in 1995 as congressional editor. Skilled at editorial decision-making, he was also a familiar presence hosting the network's morning show, Washington Journal." The full obituary FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Everett Eissenstat will be chair of North America and global trade lead at Edelman Global Advisory. He most recently was SVP of global public policy at General Motors, and is a Trump White House alum. — Forbes Tate Partners is adding Michael Pepe as a grassroots advocacy SVP, Taylor Mason as a state government relations VP, and Eliza Green as an analyst on the public affairs team. Pepe most recently was senior director of comms at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Mason most recently was executive director of the Rare Disease Company Coalition, and is a David Young alum. — Targeted Victory is launching a crypto practice, led by Josh Arnold, to help the U.S. become the leader on cryptocurrency and digital assets. Arnold previously was deputy chief of staff for Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.). WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Jamie Green is now digital comms lead for the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. She previously was director of digital strategy at the EPA, and is a Biden campaign alum. STAFFING UP — Elizabeth Campbell is now deputy assistant secretary of State at the Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration. She previously was director of U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East affairs in Washington. TRANSITIONS — Rachael Hartford is joining Precision Strategies as associate VP for comms. She previously was deputy comms director for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio). … Rachel Walker is starting as comms director for Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) and the House Intelligence GOP. She previously was comms director for Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas). … Tom Davis is joining the Financial Technology Association as VP of membership and development. He previously was global membership director for Young Presidents Organization. … … Annaliese Yukawa will be legislative assistant/professional staff member for House Oversight Government Operations Subcommittee Chair Gerry Connolly (D-Va.). She previously was senior policy analyst with Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. … Ryan Diffley is now senior manager at Troutman Pepper Strategies. He previously was legislative assistant for Rep. Robert Aderholt (R-Ala.). … Katherine Shek is now deputy director of comms at New America. She previously was campaign comms director at the Center for Science in the Public Interest. WEEKEND WEDDING — Brian Bartlett, co-founder at Rational 360 and an alum of Mitt Romney's presidential campaigns, and Jessica Brouckaert, attorney at Dickinson Wright and a Romney Senate campaign alum, got married Saturday at Emmanuel Episcopal Church in Baltimore. They met during a meeting with fellow Romney alum Charlie Spies. Pic, via Dani Leigh photography … Another pic … SPOTTED: Charlie and Lisa Spies, Will Ritter, Victoria Ellington, Kelly Kundinger, Danielle Stoebe, Jon Clark, Patrick Ketchum, Kylie Tanner, Grace Dunham and Jess Pavel. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYT's Paul Krugman, Lisa Lerer and Meredith Kopit Levien … Ira Forman ... WaPo's Sarah Ellison ... Steven Chu ... Chris Keppler … Raben Group's Joanne Irby … Porter DeLaney ... John Nagl ... POLITICO's Charlie Mahtesian … Andrea Riccio … Jay Morgan ... USA Today's Kelsey Bloom ... Christiana Purves ... Ken Blackwell ... NBC's Pete Williams (7-0) … Jack Abramoff … Craig Anderson … Heather Fluit of ICF Next … Brendan Kelly ... Adam Sieff … YouTube's Mark Lippert … Will May … Adrian Durbin … Amazon's Cara Hewitt ... Tom Hussain … Ned Ryun … Drew Ryun … Trinity Hall of Sen. Chris Coons' (D-Del.) office LEAP DAY BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Ben Cline (R-Va.) (5-0) … former Rep. Bart Stupak (R-Mich.) (7-0) … Caitlin Kovalkoski … POLITICO's Kate Irby … Alexandra White (3-0) … Enid Doggett of INSPR Media … Craig Kennedy … E&E News' Pamela King … Eugene Volokh Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross. | | A message from the American Chemistry Council: Plastics are a critical component of our nation's present and future, from reducing food waste to modernizing our infrastructure. But to tackle these critical challenges, we need Congress and industry to join forces.
That's why we created "5 Actions for Sustainable Change" – a comprehensive national strategy that would move the United States toward a sustainable, circular economy in which plastics are made to be remade.
Our bold policy proposal calls for:
· Requiring 30% recycled content in plastic packaging by 2030.
· Updating outdated laws so that advanced recycling can grow.
· Establishing national recycling standards for plastic.
· Studying the impact of greenhouse gas emissions from all materials to guide informed policy.
· Encouraging private sector funding to modernize recycling infrastructure.
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