| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
President Joe Biden talks to reporters before a meeting in the Cabinet Room at the White House on January 20, 2022 in Washington, D.C. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint It's been 24 hours since President JOE BIDEN seemed to say America and its allies would respond reciprocally to a "minor incursion" and maximally to a full-blown Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even though news cycles move quickly these days, this one is sticking around for a while. Top officials in Kyiv are making sure of that. They were livid Wednesday night after hearing Biden's remarks, NatSec Daily was told , and issued two statements Thursday confirming their frustration. "We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and small nations. Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones," tweeted Ukrainian President VOLODOMYR ZELENSKYY. "Speaking of minor and full incursions or full invasion, you cannot be half-aggressive. You're either aggressive or you're not aggressive," Ukrainian Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA told The Wall Street Journal's VIVIAN SALAMA and JAMES MARSON. The West shouldn't give Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN "the slightest chance to play with quasi-aggression or small incursion operations," Kuleba added. "This aggression was there since 2014. This is the fact." The administration, including the president himself, is still trying to clean up the mess. Biden told reporters Thursday he would deem any move by Russia's military across Ukraine's border as an invasion. And Vice President KAMALA HARRIS , appearing on NBC's "Today" show, warned that "if Putin takes aggressive action, we are prepared to levy serious and severe costs. Period." Everything NatSac Daily is hearing from inside the administration and Capitol Hill is that Biden flubbed his own position. Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), who co-led a delegation to Ukraine last weekend, insists Biden simply "misspoke" and that what officials say now is what Biden told lawmakers Wednesday. The clarification campaign might be working, at least in Washington. Despite many angry statements from congressional Republicans, Sen. ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio) told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" that the post-presser clean-up was "pretty strong." "I am glad the administration clarified that all of the responses would be forthcoming with any size invasion or asymmetric attack on Ukraine," EVELYN FARKAS, formerly a top Pentagon official dealing with Russia and Ukraine, told NatSec Daily. But the question now is whether the White House's effort is too little, too late. For one thing, Biden confirmed the United States and Europe are split over how to respond to a sliding scale of Russian aggressions. "There are differences in NATO as to what countries are willing to do depending on what happens — the degree to which they're able to go," he said Wednesday. Another concern is that Putin might walk through the door Biden cracked open: "My guess is he will move in. He has to do something," the president predicted. And, lest we forget, officials in Kyiv are still hopping mad and even more resigned to the idea that Putin will invade. Let's put it this way: The White House desperately wants the incident to be a "minor" flare-up, but all signs point to the gaffe looming over Ukraine coverage — and the crisis — for a good while. | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | HOW AMBASSADORS RATE BIDEN'S FIRST YEAR: After one year of Biden in charge, friendly nations say they're much happier with U.S. foreign policy than when former President DONALD TRUMP was at the helm, but they're frustrated by the lack of high-level access and plodding decision-making. Alex, RYAN HEATH and NAHAL TOOSI interviewed 19 ambassadors and senior embassy staff serving in Washington, D.C., and hailing from Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and the Pacific. In nearly unanimous fashion, they described an administration that is more organized and process-driven than the previous one. While fewer diplomats now have tweet notifications set for White House accounts, the rub is that they feel left out by an administration that takes pains to say it's deliberate and consultative. "At the end of the day, what are we talking about? We're talking about 10 f---king minutes of your time," said one ambassador from a European Union country. "The thing is [Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY] LAVROV , he will travel to our country and he will sit down with our guys for an hour, hour and a half. It's not that we believe everything that Mr. Lavrov says, but if he gives an hour of his time, you will listen to him, you will get his spin." But for many large European countries, there's been a noticeable improvement in the Biden administration's engagement since the Afghanistan debacle: "They coordinate quite closely, it's quite successful," said one ambassador. In fact, more powerful regional countries tend to receive a lot of attention from Biden's team. "I've been spoiled," said one ambassador from Asia. "More or less, we can have immediate communication." The White House stands by its approach. "President Biden made it a top priority to revitalize our relationships and restore trust in our leadership, and we have worked hard over the past year to do so. We are proud to work alongside like-minded allies and partners on the full range of our priorities and continue to believe that many of our greatest opportunities for progress come from cooperation," National Security Council spokesperson EMILY HORNE said. You should read the entire story. Alex for sure would like you to. NO FOE OR WEAPON BEHIND GLOBAL 'HAVANA SYNDROME' CAMPAIGN: A U.S. adversary is not engaged in a sustained global campaign aimed at harming or collecting intelligence on hundreds of American diplomats serving abroad, according to an interim CIA finding on the so-called Havana Syndrome. But, per Alex and our own ANDREW DESIDERIO, there remains a significant number of cases the CIA and the broader intelligence community can't yet attribute to a specific source. The finding "does not rule out the possibility that a foreign actor or a sophisticated weapon is behind a specific, smaller number of mysterious incidents that have stumped U.S. officials for more than five years," they wrote. "The new CIA-prepared interim finding assesses that the vast majority of reported cases can be explained by medical, environmental or technical factors — including previously undiagnosed illnesses — and that it is 'unlikely' that a malicious state actor is inflicting purposeful harm on U.S. diplomats on a far-reaching, worldwide scale. The broader intelligence community has varying levels of confidence in that assessment," they continued. MARK ZAID , a prominent attorney who represents clients who have suffered related symptoms, told NatSec Daily it was premature for the CIA to make such a determination. "It's sort of like saying there was a a high profile murder yesterday and then law enforcement says, 'We cannot identify any grand conspiracy here when we have no idea who might have done this.' How does that not negatively impact the public perception of it?" he said. BLINKEN IN BERLIN: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN delivered a speech in Berlin today that sought to rally the international community in support of Ukraine, asserting that "governments and citizens everywhere should care about what's happening" in the Eastern European nation. "It may seem like a distant regional dispute or yet another example of Russian bullying," Blinken said. "But at stake again are principles that have made the world safer and more stable for decades." Blinken, who visited U.S. allies in Kyiv and Berlin this week and is scheduled to meet Lavrov in Geneva on Friday, also warned that "no one should be surprised if Russia instigates a provocation or incident" to justify military action — "hoping that by the time the world realizes the ruse, it'll be too late." ROK AMBASSADOR ANNOUNCEMENT 'SOON': It's been a full year of the Biden presidency, and there's still no named nominee to be ambassador to South Korea. The lack of an appointment has angered officials in Seoul and a few here in Washington. So NatSec Daily asked the White House what's causing the holdup. Here's what a spokesperson told us: "We are in the process of selecting a talented, deeply experienced career foreign service officer to fill this important role serving as Ambassador from the United States to the Republic of Korea. We are in the final stages of that process and expect a nominee to be announced soon." Identifying a nominee, doing all the requisite background and ethics checks and getting a backchannel sign off from the foreign capital always takes time. But no one NatSec Daily has spoken with said a year was acceptable, especially for a staunch ally like South Korea. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today, so you can protect what matters most.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate in a different technological era and are behind the digital connectivity found in everyday life. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating the adoption of leading-edge networking and related technologies into our national defense enterprise, while enhancing the performance of our major platforms to provide unmatched situational awareness, command and control across land, sea, air, space and cyber. Learn More | | | IT'S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | NORTH KOREA HINTS AT ICBM TEST RESTART: North Korea, via the state-run Korean Central News Agency, hinted that the country may soon resume tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles — a move that would significantly ramp up tensions. KCNA said North Korean leader KIM JONG UN presided over a Politburo meeting in which officials agreed to bolster the nation's defenses against American provocations. The officials ordered that Pyongyang "reconsider in an overall scale the trust-building measures that we took on our own initiative … and to promptly examine the issue of restarting all temporally-suspended activities." The eye-popping line comes as North Korea has already launched four rounds of missiles in January alone and about a year after Kim vowed to restart such tests suspended during the Trump administration. Experts have told NatSec Daily that the administration made a mistake putting the North Korean issue on the back burner in its first year. A deal to have Kim dismantle his nukes wasn't possible, they said, but he could've been convinced to stop testing his missiles, which only gives Pyongyang more technical knowledge with each test. "North Korea appears to have been trying to fully establish the right international conditions for a resumption of ICBM launches for years," said MARKUS GARLAUSKAS, a former top intelligence official on North Korea issues. "Eventually, if unchecked, North Korea will resume ICBM launches. The exact timeline is affected by too many variables to make a prediction, but it is coming."
| | | SECURITY SCREENING TECH TIED TO CHINA: Well here's quite the lede from The Associated Press' ERIKA KINETZ : "At some of the world's most sensitive spots, authorities have installed security screening devices made by a single Chinese company with deep ties to China's military and the highest levels of the ruling Communist Party." Where are these sensitive spots, exactly? "The World Economic Forum in Davos. Europe's largest ports. Airports from Amsterdam to Athens. NATO's borders with Russia. All depend on equipment manufactured by Nuctech, which has quickly become the world's leading company, by revenue, for cargo and vehicle scanners." Nuctech denies these charges, of course, saying they aren't breaking any local laws. But it's what the company might do if officials in Beijing come calling that has many worried. "Critics fear that under China's national intelligence laws, which require Chinese companies to surrender data requested by state security agencies, Nuctech would be unable to resist calls from Beijing to hand over sensitive data about the cargo, people and devices that pass through its scanners," Kinetz wrote. | | | |   | | | | | | U.S. OKAYS WEAPONS SHIPMENTS TO UKRAINE: A big first from our own PAUL McLEARY and BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN : The State Department has authorized three NATO nations to rush U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine in an effort to bolster its defenses ahead of a possible Russian invasion. "The requests from Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were received in recent weeks, and the last of the three was approved Wednesday after being received the night before," they reported. "Under export control regulations, the three countries were required to obtain approval from the State Department before transferring their weapons to Ukraine." This effort is in addition to the $200 million in anti-armor and other weapons the U.S. will send on its own to Kyiv.
| | | LEND-LEASE FOR UKRAINE: A bipartisan sextet has introduced a bill to authorize the U.S. entering a Lend-Lease agreement with Ukraine. The measure — led by Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas) and joined by Sens. Shaheen, BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) — wouldn't "create a new program but would streamline the President's current authority to lend the defense articles necessary to defend civilian populations in Ukraine," per a new release. Cornyn previewed this idea last week on HUGH HEWITT's show, but at the time said he was just talking to Democratic colleagues about signing on the measure. Now he's got two prominent Democrats on board, increasing the chances that it receives a vote. "This legislation would allow us to once again serve as the arsenal of democracy and provide Ukraine with lethal weapons against the Russian threat to its sovereignty," Cornyn said in a statement. Shaheen added that the bill "shows there is bipartisan unity in Congress to provide President Biden with the tools needed to swiftly deliver critical defense capabilities to Ukraine and stand firm against the Kremlin." RUSSIAN SANCTIONS BILL TUSSLE: Desiderio notes that there is furious movement to pass a bipartisan bill that would decimate Russia's economy should the country invade Ukraine, but an agreement on what the final text remains elusive. By the time lawmakers strike a deal, then, a new set of Russian troops may have already crossed the Ukrainian border. "It is disheartening to see that the trajectory is in the wrong direction," Sen. JIM RISCH of Idaho, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said of the efforts to keep Russia out of Ukraine. "It is really important that that trajectory be reversed. And the only way that's going to happen is if we act now." What's the holdup? Lawmakers want a more comprehensive package than the White House-backed one offered by SFRC Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.), and Republicans want sanctions on Russia now — before it potentially invades Ukraine. JON STEWART BACKS AID TO VETS EXPOSED TO TOXINS: Comedian JON STEWART lobbied Congress on Wednesday to provide aid to U.S. military veterans whose health was impacted by toxic exposure while on active duty. The legislation Stewart wants passed, known as the "Honoring our PACT Act," "would streamline access to health care benefits for those who served in areas of known toxic exposure, regardless of disability status. At present, access to benefits for many veterans is conditional upon their ability to show a service-related disability within five years of discharge. Late-developing diseases or an inability to link ailments to toxic exposure can bar veterans from coverage, an issue the legislation would address," our own SAMUEL BENSON reported. "The bottom line is this: Our country exposed our veterans to poison for years, and we knew about it, and we didn't act with urgency and appropriateness," Stewart said. "We believe this is absolutely essential," added ALEKS MOROSKY, deputy director of government affairs at the Wounded Warrior Project. Rep. MARK TAKANO (D-Calif.), chair of the House Veterans Affairs Committee, is in support of action. "Toxic-exposed veterans have held up their part of the pact," he said. "Now it's our turn." | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today, so you can protect what matters most.
For generations, customers have counted on Lockheed Martin to help them overcome their most complex challenges. To align with the priorities of our customers in the decades ahead, Lockheed Martin has developed a concept for accelerating American and allied military modernization and preserving global deterrence called 21st Century Warfare.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate in a different technological era and are behind the digital connectivity found in everyday life. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating the adoption of leading-edge networking and related technologies into our national defense enterprise, while enhancing the performance of our major platforms.
With a portfolio that spans every branch of the military, Lockheed Martin's unique insights into enabling joint all-domain operations helps us build the technologies that enable unmatched situational awareness, command and control across all domains. Learn More | | | | | | McCAUL SLAMS BIDEN'S FIRST YEAR: Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas), the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, sent out a lengthy statement criticizing Biden's handling of five key foreign policy priorities. Biden's "poorly planned withdrawal from Afghanistan resulted in the deaths of 13 U.S. servicemembers and the abandonment of hundreds of American citizens behind enemy lines," as well as sparked a humanitarian crisis, he began. Meanwhile, Iran is "charging forward with its nuclear program," while Russia is "emboldened." Biden's policies toward Cuba and Venezuela have undermined their ability to counter authoritarianism. And on the pandemic, Biden has done "very little to hold anyone responsible for the pandemic accountable," namely Chinese officials. McCaul has been a harsh critic of Biden's foreign policy since the start. But this statement is among his strongest yet in clear opposition to the way the president is handling the world.
| | | — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ADRIENNE JACOBS has been promoted to senior program officer for events at IREX for the Mandela Washington Fellowship for Young African Leaders, a program sponsored by the State Department. She most recently was a program officer for the program. — ERIK BRATTBERG has joined Dentons Global Advisors-Albright Stonebridge Group as senior vice president with the Europe and Eurasia practice, and AHMED KHALIL has joined the firm as senior adviser with the Middle East and North Africa practice. Brattberg most recently was director of the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Khalil has held senior management positions at companies including Lenovo, Toshiba and Network International.
| | | — STEPHEN M. WALT, Foreign Policy: "Liberal Illusions Caused the Ukraine Crisis" — TESS BRIDGEMAN, Just Security: " A Rare Public Wake-Up Call from the ICRC on Guantanamo Transfers" — JERRY HENDRIX, National Review: "Is the U.S. Ready for a Russian Invasion of Eastern Europe?" | | | — Biden meets virtually with Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO: "President Biden looks forward to working with Prime Minister Kishida to advance our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, and to expand our close cooperation on critical issues like combatting COVID-19, addressing the climate crisis, and partnering on new and emerging technologies, including through the Quad," per the White House. — Carnegie Europe, 5:30 a.m.: "In Conversation With U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO JULIANNE SMITH — with ROSA BALFOUR" — The Brookings Institution, 11 a.m.: " Europe in an Era of Disruption: Where Does the Russia-Ukraine Crisis Go From Here? — with PAVEL K. BAEV, JAMES GOLDGEIER, FIONA HILL, STEVEN PIFER, DOUGLAS A. REDIKER, JEREMY SHAPIRO, CONSTANZE STELZENMÜLLER and ANGELA STENT" — The Council on Foreign Relations, 1 p.m.: " A Conversation With Representative AMI BERA — with JIM SCIUTTO" — The American Security Project, 3 p.m.: "Addressing the China Challenge — with CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW and ROBIN CLEVELAND" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, whose incursions into our prose are never minor. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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