| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Andrew Desiderio and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
Sen. Rob Portman, center, along with other senators, speaks during the Senate Armed Services and Senate Foreign Relations GOP news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, Jan. 19, 2022. | Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo | With help from Nahal Toosi, Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint One day after coming home from a trip to Ukraine, a bipartisan Senate delegation briefed President JOE BIDEN this morning on what they learned in Kyiv as the threat of a new Russian invasion looms large. Sen. ROB PORTMAN (R-Ohio), who co-led the delegation and was on the secure video call with the White House, relayed that the Ukrainians were pleased the president used his authority to send them more defensive weapons. Biden, sitting alongside national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN, told the group he cautioned Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN that a ground war in Ukraine would cost the Kremlin dearly in blood and treasure. The hourlong conversation was informative and constructive, attendees said, with Democrats, Republicans and the White House nearly sympatico on the way forward. "I don't think there was any significant daylight," Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), who was on the CODEL, told NatSec Daily. There were no fireworks or blow-ups, just a straightforward conversation where every member of the delegation — and Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) — got to weigh in. "I don't think we surprised the president or Mr. Sullivan or anybody in the administration with what we said. And quite honestly, we listened as much as we spoke," said Sen. KEVIN CRAMER (R-N.D.), a delegation member. Of Biden, Cramer said he "listened attentively" and "shared a lot, as well." In a statement about the meeting, White House press secretary JEN PSAKI said: "President Biden and the senators exchanged views on the best ways the United States can continue to work closely with our allies and partners in support of Ukraine, including both ongoing diplomacy to try to resolve the current crisis and deterrence measures." Not everything is kumbaya, however. There still isn't agreement on whether Republicans will support Sen. BOB MENENDE Z's (D-N.J.) sanctions bill, which the White House backs, as a way to reprimand Putin. But Murphy did say there was talk in the room, including from Republicans, about "trying to find a legislative path forward that could transparently show unity in Congress." Biden responded that he'd like to send a briefing team to the Hill to talk about the sanctions package he's planning and to further the conversation about whether legislation could help in any way. The meeting goes to show that top administration officials and political leaders are at least united in their resolve to fend off Putin's advances. That's the good news. The bad news is that Russia's troops are moving into Belarus nominally for joint military drills, though most people we've spoken to say the Kremlin could be positioning forces ahead of an attack from Ukraine's north. Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, is less than 100 miles from the Belarusian border. What's more, it's not clear that the Europeans are as cohesive a unit on punishing Russia over Ukraine as the Americans are."One of the challenges that's come up many times is, he has the additional burden of keeping NATO together," Cramer said. Murphy stated that "it would be great" if the Germans explicitly said they'd cancel the Nord Stream 2 project should Russia launch the invasion. The discord is evident. "EU countries do not agree on what scale of attack would trigger a response. Some argue that so-called hybrid attacks — such as deploying cyber weapons or a 'false flag' operation sparking a response — may not meet the threshold," The Financial Times' HENRY FOY reported. The Associated Press' ELLEN KNICKMEYER and LORNE COOK also wrote that "some major European allies have demonstrated less enthusiasm for huge economic penalties, which could damage some European economies or put in jeopardy the Russian natural gas Europeans need to stay warm this winter." OMRI CEREN, the national security adviser for Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), tweeted that the lack of a definition for a Russian attack displays "the opposite of unity." | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– NO FEES FOR THOSE AFFECTED BY 'MUSLIM BAN': The Biden administration plans to waive immigration visa fees for people previously denied such visas under President DONALD TRUMP's notorious travel bans, our own NAHAL TOOSI has learned. Details of the decision were laid out in the Federal Register today. The decision does not guarantee an applicant will receive a visa if they reapply. But, generally speaking, if the applicant was previously denied a visa because they were from a country covered by the travel bans, they won't have to pay hundreds of dollars in new fees if they reapply. Critics derided Trump's orders as "Muslim bans" because so many of the countries targeted, such as Iran and Syria, were majority-Muslim. One of Biden's first actions upon taking office was rescinding the travel bans. According to a senior State Department official, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN was a major proponent of offering the financial relief from the fees. "This was something the secretary pushed for since the earliest days of the administration," the official said. "The regulatory process can be slow, but he was determined that we get there." BLINKEN ARRIVES IN UKRAINE WITH U.S. AID: Blinken touched down in Kyiv on Wednesday, where Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY thanked him for the Biden administration's decision to deliver an additional $200 million in defensive military aid to the Eastern European country, per The Associated Press' MATTHEW LEE. "Your visit is very important. It underlines once again your powerful support of our independence and sovereignty," Zelenskyy told Blinken. For his part, Blinken reiterated the increasingly dire U.S. warnings about the potential for a Russian invasion of Ukraine ( which NatSec Daily highlighted Tuesday). "We know that there are plans in place to increase" the number of Russian troops on Ukraine's border "on very short notice," Blinken told staff at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv. That boosted force presence offers Putin "the capacity, also on very short notice, to take further aggressive action against Ukraine," Blinken said. Blinken will next travel to Berlin on Thursday to meet with German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK and representatives of the Transatlantic Quad — which includes France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. On Friday, Blinken will meet with Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV in Geneva. VIDEOS OF DEADLY KABUL AIRSTRIKE: The New York Times obtained declassified video of the errant drone strike that killed 10 civilians — including seven children — last August. "The videos — one of which is in grainy imagery apparently from a camera designed to detect heat — show a car arriving at and backing into a courtyard on a residential street. Blurry figures are moving around the courtyard, and children are walking on the street outside the walls in the moments before a fireball from a Hellfire missile engulfs the interior. Neighbors can then be seen desperately dumping water onto the courtyard from rooftops," wrote CHARLIE SAVAGE, ERIC SCHMITT, AZMAT KHAN, EVAN HILL and CHRISTOPH KOETTL. "The scenes unfolding on the video are murky in some respects, although in retrospect it is clear that what evidence they provided was misinterpreted by those who decided to fire." "The blurrier main video begins as the white car was approaching the courtyard, following the vehicle through several streets. It shows people moving in the courtyard several minutes before the strike, as the car stops and then backs in. A laser range-finder briefly appears in view about 70 seconds before the strike, and then returns and stays for the final half minute. Additional blurry figures are visible just before they are engulfed in flames," they continued. "The clearer and mostly color video, which starts as the car is already backing in, shows little about who was in the courtyard because of the angle from which it was shot. But it more clearly shows a figure opening the front right door of the car just before the explosion, as well as children out on the street." The Pentagon's internal report said there would be no reprimand for anyone involved in killing innocents. Meanwhile, the administration is still reviewing how it will authorize future drone strikes. SULLIVAN SPEAKS: Jake Sullivan sat down with Foreign Policy's AMY MACKINNON for an extensive interview on some global hotspots and the Biden administration's worldview. Here are a few highlights… Russia and Ukraine: "[T]he prospect of Russia invading Ukraine — further invading Ukraine — is not really about NATO.… It's about much more fundamental questions. Does Ukraine have a right to exist as a sovereign, independent state? The U.N. Charter says yes. International law says yes. We all should, with one voice as an international community, say yes. Does Ukraine have a right to be a democracy? Again, the U.N. Charter says yes, international law says yes. And we should all say with one voice as an international community that the answer is yes. And so, from my perspective, it's incumbent on all of us who are engaged in this to lift the conversation up to these core fundamental principles, which is what this is really about." Afghanistan: "We do not believe that simply writing blank checks to the Taliban, when they are not taking the kinds of measures for an inclusive government and a rights-respecting government, is consistent with the long-term best interests of the people of Afghanistan. We do believe that getting funds into the hands of independent entities and actors who can convert that into meaningful supplies in terms of food, medicine and other basic necessities is a profound responsibility for the United States and the entire international community, and we will step up to do our part." The Biden Doctrine: "First, deep investments in allies and partners so that we are addressing all of these challenges, leveraging the strength of friends, as well as our own strength. And second, the proposition that American power in the world is fundamentally rooted in American strength at home, and the link between foreign policy and domestic policy is a tight link." | | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin's LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn More | | | IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | ISRAEL DEMOLISHES PALESTINIAN HOME: Israeli police forcibly removed 15 Palestinians from their home before destroying the residence in Sheikh Jarrah, the neighborhood in occupied East Jerusalem that sparked an 11-day war between Israel and Hamas last year. "About a dozen police officers arrived at the Salhiya family's house in the early hours of Wednesday, dragging the 15 occupants outside before demolishing their home with a bulldozer. The eviction was the first to be successfully carried out in Sheikh Jarrah in nearly five years," The Guardian's BETHAN McKERNAN reports. Authorities and Jerusalem's municipality said officers were enforcing a court-approved eviction order of "illegal buildings built on [public space] designated for a school for children with special needs … which can benefit the children of the entire Sheikh Jarrah community," McKernan writes. The eviction has already triggered an international outcry, including from some officials in the United States. "A serious and credible US human rights policy would not only suspend aid, it would sanction officials involved in this policy," tweeted MATT DUSS, the foreign policy adviser to Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.). In a clear allusion to the Ukraine crisis, he added: "US warnings to adversaries not to change borders by force might be taken more seriously if we made an effort to stop partners from changing borders by force."
| | | BIDEN SIGNS CYBERATTACK REPORTING MEMO: Our own MAGGIE MILLER explains (for Pros!) Biden's new executive order requiring agencies to report cyber incidents impacting systems critical to national security. "The national security memorandum, required as part of the executive order to strengthen federal cybersecurity signed by Biden in May, mandates that federal agencies identify national security systems within their networks. Any cyber incident involving these critical networks must be reported to the National Security Agency, the government's national manager for classified federal systems, in order to enhance federal understanding of threats to these systems," Miller writes. Then, the NSA "has 30 days to create a process to help agencies identify national security systems and 90 days to establish timelines and criteria for agencies to report compromises of these critical systems." The order comes after a spate of ransomware attacks in the United States and a cyberattack on Ukrainian government websites this week.
| | | HELP IS (EVENTUALLY) ON THE WAY: As the U.S. prepares to ship a new $200 million package of military aid to Ukraine, a handful of small NATO allies are lining up to do their part, per our own PAUL McLEARY and BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN . Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are looking to transfer American-made lethal weapons such as anti-armor and ground-to-air missiles to Ukraine, officials from those countries and people familiar with the discussions said. The shipments of Javelin missiles and ammo are waiting on State Department approval of U.S. export control regulations, however. The transfers could happen quickly once Washington signs off, and would join a new British shipment of weapons that began to arrive this week, as diplomats from the U.S. and across Europe rushed to Kyiv to offer support and assurance. AMPHIB STUDY COULD ANGER MARINES: A new study on amphibious warship requirements — which could heavily influence future budgets — is unlikely to make the Marine Corps or the shipbuilding industry happy. Lt. Gen. KARSTEN HECKL, the deputy commandant of the Marine Corps for combat development and integration, said the Pentagon is focused more on a "resource-informed requirement" than on an operational one, Defense News' MEGAN ECKSTEIN reports. Heckl said affordability, not necessarily mission needs, is driving the review. "A requirement is a requirement, pure and simple. And I've told my staff this: A resource-informed requirement is a budget submission, not a requirement. The requirement is the requirement, and the last time I checked, my job, the Marine Corps' job, is to kill our nation's adversaries and break all their stuff — that's the requirement. So when I hear people use terms like a resource-informed requirement, alarm bells go off, which is what is happening with amphibs right now, quite frankly," Heckl said. "The amphib study is still ongoing, we've out-briefed to the secretary of the Navy, so I'm not going to get out over my skis on this thing and get myself fired two months into the job.… But do I think money is the limiter? Absolutely, my personal [opinion], yes. When people are using terms like resource-informed requirement, that's money," Heckl continued. | | | |   | | | | | | LANGEVIN LEAVING CONGRESS: Rep. JIM LANGEVIN (D-R.I.) — the second-most senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee — has announced he won't seek reelection to a 12th term in Congress this November, "marking yet another departure from the party's national security bench," our own CONNOR O'BRIEN writes (for Pros!). Langevin has long been considered an authority on cyber issues on Capitol Hill, co-founding the Congressional Cybersecurity Caucus and chairing the HASC panel that oversees military cyber efforts. He also touted his advocacy for Rhode Island's role in Navy shipbuilding efforts. So far, 28 House Democrats have announced their retirements, including several national security-focused lawmakers. Among them are Reps. ANTHONY BROWN (D-Md.), STEPHANIE MURPHY (D-Fla.) and JACKIE SPEIER (D-Calif.). PROGRESSIVE FORPOL BILL: Reps. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) and BARBARA LEE (D-Calif.) today introduced a resolution to codify a progressive U.S. foreign policy. The Foreign Policy for the 21st Century Resolution "specifically calls for cutting waste, fraud, and abuse in defense spending and security assistance while returning the power of warmaking to elected officials, implementing arms controls and nuclear nonproliferation, and ending the use of broad-based, sectoral sanctions. It also calls for investing in diplomacy, international justice and cooperation, peacebuilding, and green development while cutting security assistance and weapons sales to human rights abusers. Critically important, the resolution highlights the urgency of transforming the United States and global economies away from fossil fuels to mitigate climate change while building a more equitable economy, advancing global reproductive and gender justice, and better promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion in the national security workforce," per a news release sent by Jayapal's office. "There is more that we must do to rethink our country's foreign policy and finally prioritize diplomacy over defense spending," Jayapal said in a statement. "The post 9/11 wars taught us that perpetual war takes countless lives, wastes trillions of dollars and does not make us any safer," Lee said. ENDING IOC'S TAX-EXEMPT STATUS: A bipartisan House duo has introduced a measure that would revoke the International Olympic Committee's tax-exempt status in the United States — an effort to punish the group for its handling of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. The legislation put forward by Reps. JENNIFER WEXTON (D-Va.) and MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.), dubbed the Irresponsible Olympic Collaboration Act, specifically targets the IOC's status as a 501c(4) tax-exempt organization by revoking that privilege for any international "multi-sport" organization that has revenues of more than $100 million, per our own ANDREW DESIDERIO. "A 501(c)4 is a social welfare organization. And from my perspective, the American taxpayer shouldn't be subsidizing an organization that's frankly doing the exact opposite of promoting social welfare by hosting the Olympics in a country with an ongoing genocide," Waltz said. "Those who are enabling these atrocities will not change their behavior until we hit them where it hurts — their bottom line," Wexton added.
| | | VINDMAN SAYS RUSSIAN INVASION 'INEVITABLE': ALEXANDER VINDMAN, the National Security Council's former director for European affairs, assessed Wednesday that the Biden administration's diplomacy "has been highly ineffective" at averting a now-imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, and that U.S. officials should have pursued a more aggressive "pressure track" toward Moscow. Specifically, Vindman told MSNBC he wants to see the United States send more weapons to Ukraine and offer troops to Eastern European allies, implementing "posture changes … to warn Russia of what happens when they do attack." Vindman also is a big supporter of the expansive sanctions bill spearheaded by SFRC Chair Bob Menendez, which he calls "maybe one of the most potent tools that we have right now to avoid this confrontation." But Vindman still remains extremely pessimistic about the current security situation, telling CNN: "It's probably, in my view, inevitable that the Russians are going to conduct their offensive.… The last bits and pieces are coming together for an attack in days. I would expect this to unfold in the middle to late part of February." | | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn More | | | | | | — The president has named ELIZABETH BAGLEY as U.S. Ambassador to Brazil, JANE HARTLEY as U.S. Ambassador to the United Kingdom, ALEXANDER LASKARIS as U.S. Ambassador to Chad and ALAN LEVENTHAL as U.S. Ambassador to Denmark. — ROBERT FRIEDMAN has joined Holland & Knight's International Trade Practice as a partner in the firm's Washington, D.C., office. He previously was a partner with Harris, Wiltshire and Grannis LLP, and served as attorney-adviser in the State Department's Office of Legal Adviser.
| | | — SPENCER ACKERMAN, Forever Wars: "U.S. Economic Strangulation Could Kill More Afghans Than 20 Years of U.S. War" — AMY ZEGART, POLITICO Magazine: " Opinion: Meet the Nuclear Sleuths Shaking Up U.S. Spycraft" — DAN LAMOTHE, The Washington Post: "Power Struggle Among Biden Appointees Gets Personal Over Race"
| | | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: "Holding Malicious Cyber Actors Accountable — with TOBIAS FEAKIN, DUNCAN HOLLIS, CAMINO KAVANAGH and HELI TIIRMAA-KLAAR" — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9:30 a.m.: "Berlin Keynote by US Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 9:30 a.m.: " Roundtable: Bolstering Democracy in the Age of Rising Authoritarianism — with ANNE APPLEBAUM and TIMOTHY SNYDER" — The George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, 10 a.m.: " Libya's Elections: A Transition to Democracy? — with LAMEES BENSAAD, MARY FITZGERALD, TAREK MEGERISI and SARAH YERKES" — House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: FEMA: Building a Workforce Prepared and Ready to Respond — with CHRIS CURRIE, CRAIG FUGATE and CARRA SIMS" — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 11 a.m.: " DISA: Restructuring to Move at the Velocity of Action — with ROGER GREENWELL, JASON MARTIN, LLEWELLYN 'DON' MEANS, ROBERT SKINNER, SHARON WOODS and GARRETT YEE" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 11 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Panama: A New Alliance for Promoting Democracy and Prosperity in the Americas — with LAURA ALFARO, JASON MARCZAK and DANIEL F. RUNDE" — House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, 11 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: Keeping Our Sights on Mars Part 3: A Status Update and Review of NASA's Artemis Initiative — with DANIEL DUMBACHER, JAMES FREE, PAUL K. MARTIN, WILLIAM RUSSELL and PATRICIA SANDERS" — The Business Council for International Understanding, 12 p.m.: " Virtual Roundtable — with SPENCER BOYER" — The Council on Foreign Relations, 12 p.m.: "Digital Disorder: War and Peace in the Cyber Age — with DMITRI ALPEROVITCH, KATE BRANNEN, JOSEPH NYE JR., ERIC ROSENBACH and JACQUELYN SCHNEIDER" — House Homeland Security Committee, 2 p.m.: "Subcommittee Hearing: Securing Democracy: Protecting Against Threats to Election Infrastructure and Voter Confidence — with MATT MASTERSON, GOWRI RAMACHANDRAN, EZRA ROSENBERG and ALEX STAMOS" — The American Enterprise Institute, 3 p.m.: "The Strategy of Denial: American Defense in an Age of Great Power Conflict — with DAN BLUMENTHAL, ELBRIDGE COLBY, COLIN DUECK and ORIANA SKYLAR MASTRO" — The Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 4 p.m.: "Strengthening the Technical Foundations of U.S. Security — with JEFFREY DING, ANDREW LOHN and RUSSELL WALD" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who often tells us his job is to kill all our adversaries and break all their stuff. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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