| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
A member of U.S. Army's 2nd Cavalry Regiment raises the Lithuanian flag on the Stryker vehicle during a military exercise, in Salociai, Lithuania, Monday, March 23, 2015. | Mindaugas Kulbis/AP Photo | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– While the Ukrainians have made their fears about an impending Russian invasion very public, the three Baltic states have quietly lobbied U.S. and NATO officials to take their own concerns about the situation seriously — and to do something about it. Two letters privately sent over the last two days, obtained exclusively and separately by NatSec Daily, make that exceedingly clear. On Thursday, the chairs of the Lithuanian Parliament's National Security and Defense and Foreign Affairs committees wrote to their American congressional counterparts (in both chambers) asking them to consider authorizing a permanent U.S. military presence in their country. "Given the force imbalance in the region, effective deterrence and defense can be achieved only by capable in-place forces, which should include national forces and presence of Allied forces, including persistent 'heel-to-toe' presence of US forces as a necessary and indispensable element," LAURYNAS KASČIŪNAS and LAIMA LIUCIJA ANDRIKIENĖ wrote (the underline is in the document). "This is the level of ambition that Lithuania seeks — to become a continuous location for US battalion size units' deployments." The Lithuanians added that the NATO member would also benefit from prepositioned equipment and are prepared to host American service members "by providing infrastructure and necessary training conditions." That reiterates a position long articulated by Lithuanian leaders. In November 2020, for example, then-Defense Minister RAIMUNDAS KAROBLIS said during a visit to Washington, D.C., that "[w]e would like the U.S. to consider Lithuania as a place for permanent deployment, therefore, we are investing in infrastructure to create the conditions for their deployment." President JOE BIDEN did tell Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN directly that if his troops invade Ukraine, the U.S. would reinforce NATO's Eastern flank with an additional troop presence. Then on Friday, parliamentarians from Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland sent a separate letter to leaders in NATO and allied nations — including NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG — to "express our concern over the severe security threats faced by all NATO member countries." Appealing to their counterparts like Rep. GERRY CONNOLLY (D-Va.), president of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, the 10 Eastern Europeans wrote: "The only condition for dialogue must be based on real de-escalation and Russia refraining from [a] massive build-up near Ukraine. The NATO dialogue with Russia must be conditions, not calendar-driven. NATO-Russia engagement depends on Russia's willingness to engage in a constructive dialogue, but it cannot lead to business as usual." "Russia has no right to restrict NATO collective defence and deterrence posture and planning. The current situation is asymmetric and cannot be taken as a baseline for any possible debate on any possible reductions, limitations or unilateral restraints from the NATO side," they also noted. Foreign governments pushing the U.S. to see the world in their way is part of the daily grind of global politics. But it's clear from these letters that the Baltics (and Poland) — which all border Russia — aren't fully satisfied with the U.S.-led deterrence of Moscow's aggression. A NSC spokesperson defended the administration's policy toward Europe's east. "Our commitment to our NATO Allies on the eastern flank is ironclad. We are closely coordinating with them on NATO deterrence and defense efforts in the face of Russian aggression. We are continuing our military exercises with the Baltic and other Allies to enhance interoperability and demonstrate combat-credible defense capabilities," the spokesperson told NatSec Daily. Baltic government leaders aim to be friendly with Biden and his team, said the Atlantic Council's JORGE BENITEZ in an interview, but "the legislatures can be more sincere and more honest about what the local sentiment is." There's one clear place where the U.S. and the Baltics align, though: The U.S. approved all three countries' requests to send American-made weapons to Ukraine, such as Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-armor missiles. "Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and their allies are working together expeditiously to hand over the security assistance to Ukraine," reads a Friday statement on the Lithuanian Defense Ministry's website. "We sincerely hope that Ukraine will face no need to use this equipment and call on [the] Russian Federation to [cease] its aggressive and irresponsible behavior." | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | U.S. WEIGHING EVAC OF DIPLO FAMILIES IN UKRAINE: In anticipation of a possible Russian invasion, the State Department is considering evacuating the families of diplomats in Ukraine while also allowing non-essential staff to go home, a person familiar told NatSec Daily. That confirms news first broken by Bloomgberg's ALBERTO NARDELLI and NICK WADHAMS. It's normal for the State Department to weigh multiple contingency options ahead of a crisis, such as Russia massing 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border. Choosing an option is a whole other matter, and it's unclear if State officials will go for this one, another one or none at all. "We have nothing to announce at this time. We conduct rigorous contingency planning, as we always do, in the event the security situation deteriorates," a State Department spokesperson told NatSec Daily, not denying the development. "If there is a decision to change our posture with respect to American diplomats and their families, American citizens should not anticipate that there will be U.S. government-sponsored evacuations. Currently commercial flights are available to support departures." MOSCOW TO GET WRITTEN RESPONSE FROM WASHINGTON: The United States plans to present Russia next week with a written record of its concerns about Moscow's behavior and proposals aimed at resolving the security crisis on the Russia-Ukraine border, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN said Friday, following his meeting in Geneva with Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV. In a news conference, Blinken described his conversation with his Russian counterpart as "frank and substantive," and he said they both "agreed that it's important for the diplomatic process to continue" as Russia maintains its military buildup along Ukraine's border. "I told him that, following the consultations that we'll have in the coming days with allies and partners, we anticipate that we will be able to share with Russia our concerns and ideas in more detail and in writing next week, and we agreed to further discussions after that," Blinken said. Still, it remains unclear how a written response to Moscow from Washington will help advance the mostly stagnant diplomacy between Russia and the West. The United States has already ruled out Russia's major demands: that NATO pull back its presence in the Baltic and Eastern Europe, and that Ukraine and Georgia be permanently barred from joining the military alliance. GERMANY BLOCKS ESTONIA FROM SENDING WEAPONS TO UKRAINE: Germany has stopped Estonia — a fellow NATO ally — from sending German-made weapons to Ukraine, per The Wall Street Journal's MICHAEL GORDON and BOJAN PANCEVSKI. That sticks out, as the U.S., Britain, Poland and others have green-lighted the export licenses required for such transfers. "The issue is being seen by Western security specialists and Ukraine as a test of Berlin's arms-transfer policy during a mounting crisis in Europe and points to the difficulties the U.S. and its European allies are facing in forging a common response to Russia's military buildup near Ukraine and demands," Gordon and Pancevski wrote. Latvian Defense Minister ARTIS PABRIKS cheekily tweeted "No comment " atop former Estonian President TOOMAS HENDRIK ILVES' own tweet about the article. BIDEN AND KISHIDA VIRTUAL MEETING: Biden and Japanese Prime Minister KISHIDA FUMIO met virtually today, holding a discussion dominated by China and North Korea. "We agreed to work together to advance cooperation among like-minded countries to realize a free and open Indo-Pacific," Kishida, who came to power in October, told reporters after the session. "We agreed to closely cooperate on China-related issues, including the East and South China Seas, Hong Kong, and the Xinjiang Uyghur, as well as North Korea's nuclear and missile issues." Their encounter came shortly after the foreign minister and defense leaders of each country held a "2+2" meeting of their own earlier this month. Biden accepted Kishida's invitation to travel to Japan in late spring, a senior administration official said. NEW GERMAN CHANCELLOR COMING TO D.C. IN FEB: NSC spokesperson ADRIENNE WATSON confirmed to NatSec Daily that new German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ will meet with Biden in February at the White House. The statement comes after a report in German press that Scholz rejected Biden's invitation for such a meeting. "This report is false. It did not happen — totally made up. The German side has proposed dates and we are responding to them," Watson said, noting the February timeframe. The encounter next month will be the first time the two leaders meet face-to-face. It'll be an important session, not only because of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, but also because someone not named ANGELA MERKEL will be sitting across from an American president for the first time in nearly two decades. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is breaking barriers in hypersonic tech with the world's most advanced portfolio.
The Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) will enable the U.S. to hold fixed, high-value, time-sensitive targets at risk in contested environments from stand-off distances. Learn More | | | DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington's national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring OMRI CEREN, Sen. TED CRUZ 's (R-Texas) national security adviser. When he's not working with his boss to reimpose sanctions on Nord Stream 2, you can find Ceren on the patio at Morton's Steakhouse drinking a vodka soda. In a pinch, or simply to hydrate, Ceren will take a Diet Coke, but that's clearly not his preferred option. Cheers, Omri! IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey . While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio.
| | | AT LEAST 70 DEAD IN YEMEN AIRSTRIKE: At least 70 people were killed and more than 130 injured after airstrikes pounded Yemen today, per Doctors Without Borders. Save the Children, a humanitarian aid group, said "[t]he true number is feared to be higher." "Rescue workers were still pulling bodies out of the rubble around midday following the dawn strike on the temporary detention centre in Saada in north Yemen," Reuters reported about the scenes following the bombings. The Saudi-led coalition's assault on Houthi positions has intensified following the Iran-backed movement's strike this week on civilian sites in the United Arab Emirates, a leading coalition member. The Internet also went down nationwide after the Saudi-led coalition struck a vital telecommunications center. VOLCANO EXPLOSION GREATER THAN ANY NUKE DETONATION: Nuclear-test monitors that form part of an international network say the Tonga underwater volcano's explosion is greater than any detected by a nuclear weapon — ever. "Every single station picked it up," geophysicist RONAN LE BRAS, told NPR's GEOFF BRUMFIEL. "It's the biggest thing that we've ever seen." "In total, 53 detectors around planet Earth heard the low-frequency boom from the explosion as it traveled through the atmosphere. It was the loudest event the network had detected in more than 20 years of operation," Brumfiel wrote, citing Le Bras. "[A]tmospheric measurements in Austria, roughly 10,000 miles from the eruption site, detected a shock wave that was 2 hectopascals in strength. By comparison, the largest nuclear weapon ever tested, the Soviet Union's Tsar Bomba, generated a shock wave of just 0.5-0.7 hectopascals in New Zealand, which sits at a comparable distance from Russia's nuclear test site in Novaya Zemlya," Le Bras told Brumfiel. | | | U.K. CYBER AGENCY SLAMMED BY BRITISH MPs: A cross-party, China-focused human rights group criticized a British cyber agency for "failing to respond" after a cyberattack — suspected to have come from Beijing— took its website offline. Members of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China "complained the National Cyber Security Centre did not engage or show interest in investigating the episode, the second time in under a year the website of the campaign group of international parliamentarians had been knocked out," The Guardian's DAN SABBAGH reported. The website was taken down for three hours in a denial-of-service attack. Without the agency's help, though, the group can't determine exactly who was behind it TIM LOUGHTON, a conservative member of Parliament, said "it is unacceptable that the NCSC is failing to respond to reports of suspected cyber-attacks from Chinese state backed actors. The British government must be doing its utmost to protect parliamentarians and activists working on these issues from further attacks and intimidation." | | | |   | | | | | | DARPA WORKING ON ATOMIC CLOCKS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note that on Thursday, DARPA unveiled the Robust Optical Clock Network to create optical atomic clocks that have better accuracy and timing than GPS atomic clocks. The new project promises to develop optical clocks that would be 100 times more precise, TATJANA CURCIC, defense sciences office program manager at DARPA, said Thursday in a statement. DARPA is also trying to reduce size, weight and power. The four-year project will produce a clock that provides accurate time for 30 days in the absence of GPS. If you think this is all a waste of time (pun intended), it's not: As U.S. adversaries develop more sophisticated means to disrupt GPS signals, the military may need to rely on other technologies. AIR FORCE'S FIRST HYPERSONIC MISSILE IN PRODUCTION SOON? Per Breaking Defense's VALERIE INSINNA, "[t]he Air Force still has enough time to wrap up tests of its first hypersonic missile and begin production by the end of the fiscal year, the service's program executive for weapons believes." "We have a bunch of test windows aligned and scheduled on the range throughout the year — the next one is in a couple months," he said. "We are really focusing on getting the failure review board done, the corrective actions completed and trying to make sure we're ready for that next test window," Brig. Gen. HEATH COLLINS told Insinna. Once the service finds out what caused a failed booster test of the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon, or ARRW, "the Air Force will have to make quick, steady work on its final test points in order to begin production in FY22.," Insinna wrote. "The service must log a successful booster flight test — an achievement it has not been able to muster over three attempts — and successfully launch the first all-up round, where the missile will be tested in its final, assembled form."
| | | LAWMAKERS SUSPICIOUS OF CIA HAVANA SYNDROME ASSESSMENT: Senators from both parties are complaining about the timing and inconclusive nature of the new interim CIA assessment on the mysterious illness known as Havana Syndrome, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO reports. The lawmakers also are frustrated that the report was not coordinated with other intelligence agencies ahead of its release, while others noted that it appeared to contradict previous information shared with the congressional intelligence committees. Senate Intelligence Chair MARK WARNER (D-Va.) revealed that the intelligence community's expert panel on Havana Syndrome is expected to wrap up its work "in about 10 days," and he questioned why the CIA would get ahead of that group's work. "It might have been better to have this simultaneously released," he said. As Alex and Desiderio noted in their Wednesday story on the CIA's findings, the agency assessed that a U.S. adversary is not engaged in a sustained global campaign aimed at harming or collecting intelligence on hundreds of American diplomats serving abroad. But the CIA doesn't rule out the possibility that a foreign actor or a sophisticated weapon is behind a specific, smaller number of incidents that have stumped U.S. officials. HOUSE GOP MEMBER INTRO TAIWAN DEFENSE BILL: Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), a House Armed Services Committee member and former Marine, introduced the Arm Taiwan Act, which would allocate $3 billion a year (between FY23 and FY27) to bolster the democratic island's defenses. The goal, of course, is to help Taipei protect itself against any attempt at a forcible takeover of the island by Beijing. Gallagher's measure is the companion to Sen. JOSH HAWLEY' s (R-Mo.) bill in the upper chamber. "I am proud to join Senator Hawley in introducing the Arm Taiwan Act to provide Taiwan with the necessary resources and weapons to defeat an attempted invasion," Gallagher said in a statement. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is breaking barriers in hypersonic tech with the world's most advanced portfolio.
At Lockheed Martin, customer focus, innovation and purpose are built into everything we do. Every mission is an expedition of the greatest importance: both to you, and to us. Learn More | | | | | | DEMS TELL BIDEN TO CHANGE CT POLICIES: After a stream of stories by The New York Times exposed in horrid detail how civilians have long suffered from America's loose counterterrorism operations, 50 congressional Democrats urged Biden to quickly reform U.S. policies. "When there is little policy change or accountability for repeated mistakes this grave and this costly, it sends a message throughout the U.S. armed forces and the entire U.S. government that civilian deaths — including deaths where there was no military target — are the inevitable consequence of modern conflict, rather than avoidable and damaging failures of policy," reads the letter led by Sens. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) and Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif.). "We strongly urge your Administration to review and overhaul U.S. counterterrorism policy to center human rights and the protection of civilians, align with U.S. and international law, prioritize non-lethal tools to address conflict and fragility, and only use force when it is lawful and as a last resort," they continued. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN conceded in November that the U.S. military needed to do more to protect civilians. However, a review of an errant drone strike in August that killed 10 innocent people in Afghanistan — including three children — led to no disciplinary action for the troops involved.
| | | — FIRST FOR NATSEC DAILY: MATTHEW MILLER will join the NSC's communications team to coordinate across the government on Russia-Ukraine outreach. "I'm honored to serve and look forward to joining the excellent team at the NSC," he told NatSec Daily. — FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — MEGAN APPER has joined the State Department as a senior adviser in the Bureau of Global Public Affairs. She will work closely with the Bureau's leadership on strategic communications projects and Department priorities. Until recently she served as Director of Research at the White House — ERIC BREWER and NICKOLAS ROTH will join the Nuclear Threat Initiative effective Feb. 1. They will serve as senior directors of the groups' new Nuclear Material Security Program. — SARAH OH is joining Twitter as a human rights adviser. She previously led Facebook's crisis response efforts in the Asia-Pacific region. — The president has appointed LORI EHRLICH as FEMA Regional Administrator, Region 1; DAVID WARRINGTON as FEMA Regional Administrator, Region 2; and NANCY DRAGANI as FEMA Regional Administrator, Region 8. | | | — SAMUEL CHARAP and SCOTT BOSTON, Foreign Policy: "The West's Weapons Won't Make Any Difference to Ukraine" — EDWARD FISHMAN and CHRIS MILLER, POLITICO Magazine: "Opinion: The Russia Sanctions That Could Actually Stop Putin" — LARIS KARKLIS and RUBY MELLEN, The Washington Post: "Four Maps That Explain the Russia-Ukraine Conflict"
| | | — The Cyber Threat Alliance, 10 a.m.: "Sharing Over the Long Run: Celebrating 5 Years of Enduring Collaboration — with JOE CHEN, MICHAEL DANIEL, DORIT DOR and JOE LEVY" — The George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, 12:30 p.m.: "Responsible, Accountable, and Ethical Leadership: My Own Journey — with JOHN JUMPER" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who criticizes our deterrence policies out in the open, not in secret letters. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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