| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
Rep. Seth Moulton is pictured during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on July 9, 2020 in Washington, D.C. | Greg Nash-Pool/Getty Images | With help from Bryan Bender, Connor O'Brien and Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint PROGRAMMING NOTE: National Security Daily won't publish from Monday, Dec. 20 to Friday, Dec. 31. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Monday, Jan. 3. Happy holidays! Rep. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.) is worried the United States isn't doing enough to deter Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN from launching a renewed invasion of Ukraine. After a whirlwind Saturday-to-Monday trip to Ukraine, in which he met with local and U.S. officials alongside four other lawmakers, the retired Marine and current House Armed Services Committee member told NatSec Daily what he heard was "concerning." "In many ways, we're taking the right approach, but we need to move more quickly," he said. "We're focused more on responding to a Russian invasion rather than preventing it." He has a four-step proposal for President JOE BIDEN , but he only told us of three — asserting the fourth step isn't appropriate to say in public. First, Moulton said the U.S. and its allies should finalize the sanctions package now — not keep drafting one — before Russia potentially sends 100,000 troops into Ukraine. "I want Putin to know that he's gonna have a tough time buying a snack from a vending machine 10 minutes after he invades rather than worry about the NATO allies convening a conference and developing a sanctions plan over a course of a few weeks," he said. Second, the former presidential candidate said the U.S. should speed up the transfer of lethal weapons to Ukraine like anti-tank missile systems. The final public recommendation, somewhat related to the second, is to reach the Russian public with messages about the larger costs for Russia. "We shouldn't be hesitant to tell the Russian people the truth, the truth about how bloody this conflict could be, how costly it could be, both economically and in terms of dead Russian troops," he said. Moulton came to this conclusion after finding that Ukrainian and U.S. officials focus more on preventing a limited Russian action than a "blitzkrieg," as he termed it. Relatedly, he said the U.S. military advisers currently in Ukraine are doing "incredibly valuable and important training, but we need to make sure it's focused on the short-term threat, not just the long-term development of their military." Lt. Col. ANTON SEMELROTH , a Pentagon spokesperson, told NatSec Daily that the Florida National Guard's 53rd Infantry Brigade is now in charge of the Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine mission, assisting Kyiv's forces with "internal defense capabilities and training capacity while providing realistic training under a NATO interoperable framework." He also said U.S. special forces help their Ukrainian counterparts via "regular validation training exercises." That's good, says Moulton, but arguably not enough: "We have to be prepared for the worst-case scenario and, most importantly, we have to do everything we can to prevent the worst-case scenario." | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | 'TIME IS RUNNING OUT' ON IRAN DEAL TALKS: European negotiators working to get the U.S. back into the Iran nuclear deal warn "time is running out" to strike a bargain in Vienna. "As of this moment, we still have not been able to get down to real negotiations," officials from the U.K., France and Germany said Monday. "We are losing precious time dealing with new Iranian positions inconsistent with [the Iran deal] or that go beyond it." "[T]ime is running out," they said. "Without swift progress, in light of Iran's fast forwarding of its nuclear program, the [nuclear deal] will very soon become an empty shell." Meanwhile, the head of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog said Tuesday that his agency's visibility into Iran's nuclear work is now only a " very blurred image." "The reality is that we are dealing with a very different Iran," said RAFAEL MARIANO GROSSI of the International Atomic Energy Agency while in Abu Dhabi. "2022 is so different from 2015 that there will have to be adjustments that take into consideration these new realities so our inspectors can inspect whatever the countries agree at the political table." U.S. UNVEILS INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN unveiled the administration's strategy for a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" Tuesday during his swing in Indonesia. It contains five pillars: — Advancing a free and open Indo-Pacific in the hopes that "on an individual level, that people will be free in their daily lives and live in open societies." — Forging connections within and beyond the region, such as deepening treaty alliances and knitting together other partners from ASEAN, AUKUS or elsewhere — Promoting broad-based prosperity via "fair and resilient trade," shaping rules for new technologies and continuing to invest in the region — Building a "more resilient" region, such as hardening countries and peoples against pandemics and climate change — Bolstering regional security, like curbing violent extremism as well as deterring conflict with China and North Korea The top lines aren't far off from those in the Trump administration's Indo-Pacific strategy released in Nov. 2019: to engage partners and regional institutions, enhance economic prosperity, champion good governance, ensure peace and security, and invest in human capital. VAN JACKSON, a former Obama administration Pentagon official now at the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, bashed the Biden plan. "There's no strategy in it. It's well-intentioned pablum that basically runs distraction for the Pentagon — 'Don't look over there, look over here, at my diplomatic buzz words!'" he told NatSec Daily. "This administration, like many before it, treats strategy as the act of rationalizing what the government is already doing, no matter how nonsensical, risky or internally contradictory it is." WANG WENBIN, a spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry, responded to Blinken's comments: "If the US really wants to play a constructive role in promoting peace and development in the Asia-Pacific region as it claims, it should earnestly respect the ASEAN-centered regional cooperation architecture, instead of drawing ideological lines, creating small cliques and inciting bloc confrontation." RUSSIA BLOCKS U.N. CLIMATE RES: Russia blocked a draft U.N. resolution Monday night which would've for the first time labeled climate change a security threat, The New York Times' RICK GLADSTONE reports. The draft, put together by Ireland and Niger, would've led the U.N. Security Council to "include climate change as a factor regarding 'any root causes of conflict or risk multipliers.' It also would have asked the secretary general to make regular reports on how to address the risks from climate change in preventing conflicts," he wrote. Twelve countries voted in favor of the resolution, with India and veto-wielding Russia voting against and China abstaining. Russia's U.N. ambassador, VASSILY NEBENZIA , said the measure would've allowed Western nations to interfere in the affairs of others. "Positioning climate change as a threat to international security diverts the attention of the council from genuine, deep-rooted reasons of conflict in the countries on the council's agenda," he said. IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @AndrewDesiderio. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: AGM-158 and F-35: 21st Century Platforms for 21st Century Warfighting.
Combined with unmatched capabilities of the F-35, JASSM and LRASM significantly increase the ability to deter near peer adversaries, providing warfighters flexible, responsive options to increasingly complex, heavily defended target sets. Learn More | | | | | | 'PROFOUND HUMANITARIAN CRISIS' IN AFGHANISTAN: U.N. Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights NADA AL-NASHIF today reported on the grim situation facing millions in Afghanistan since the Taliban's takeover. "The people of Afghanistan today face a profound humanitarian crisis that threatens the most basic of human rights," she said, noting the country's economic collapse and rough winter conditions. "I am also alarmed by continuing reports of extra-judicial killings across the country, despite the general amnesty announced by the Taliban after 15 August. Between August and November, we received credible allegations of more than 100 killings of former Afghan national security forces and others associated with the former Government, with at least 72 of these killings attributed to the Taliban. In several cases, the bodies were publicly displayed." Nashif also noted the threat to children, stating the local ISIS franchise recruits kids to their cause and that children "comprise nearly all of the civilians killed and injured by unexploded ordnance." RUSSIA MIGHT DEPLOY INTERMEDIATE-RANGE NUKES IN EUROPE: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister SERGEI RYABKOV said Monday that his nation might put intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe as arms control with the U.S. falters. "Ryabkov said Russia would be forced to act if the West declined to join it in a moratorium on intermediate-range nuclear forces in Europe — part of a package of security guarantees it is seeking as the price for defusing the crisis over Ukraine," per Reuters' ALEXANDER MARROW and MARK TREVELYAN. First Look: 'bite sized' arms control: The obstacles to reaching any new arms control pacts with Russia, let alone China, may be higher than ever. But a new blueprint co-written by a State Department official lays out a step-by-step recipe for jumpstarting negotiations with Moscow and Beijing on a host of doomsday weapons, on Earth and in space. The report from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, co-authored by JAMES ACTON, THOMAS MACDONALD and PRANAY VADDI — who is now a senior adviser at State — lays out a series of proposals in what Acton refers to as a "bite sized" approach to increase transparency and limit weapons and material, including packaging measures together to help bring the divergent sides together. For example, it proposes linking an agreement on ballistic missile defenses, a perennial concern of Moscow's, with provisions on non-strategic, or tactical, nuclear weapons, a major worry of Washington, "thus catering to both Russian and U.S. concerns." The report, which is set for release Thursday, also outlines a host of possible confidence-building measures with Russia that could lead to arms control treaties, including an exchange of data on nuclear-capable cruise missiles and reciprocal inspections of storage facilities and missile defense installations. It also raises the prospect of an agreement with China to limit fissile material that can be used for atomic bombs. And the report calls for an agreement between all three nuclear powers to notify each other of missile tests and space launches and "to establish keep-out zones around high-altitude satellites." "While there is no simple fix," the authors write, "it would be wrong to assume that political barriers are immutable." | | | |   | | | | | | DOCS SHOW CHINA'S LINK TO HUAWEI TECH: The Washington Post's EVA DOU reviewed more than 100 Huawei PowerPoint slides showing that the Chinese telecom giant "has had a broader role in tracking China's populace than it has acknowledged." "These marketing presentations, posted to a public-facing Huawei website before the company removed them late last year, show Huawei pitching how its technologies can help government authorities identify individuals by voice, monitor political individuals of interest, manage ideological reeducation and labor schedules for prisoners, and help retailers track shoppers using facial recognition," she reported. The whole piece is worth a read, but five slides Dou posts show how Huawei works with other companies to market their tech for voice recording analysis, prison and detention center monitoring, location tracking, surveillance in Xinjiang and corporate monitoring. It's unclear to whom, exactly, Huawei pitched these services. Earlier this week, SecState Blinken told The Wall Street Journal that "when it comes to Chinese investment, there is no distinction between a so-called private enterprise and the state. If a private Chinese enterprise makes the investment, the state has access to whatever that enterprise has access to. We have to be on guard about that."
| | | UAE COULD BACK OUT OF $23B DEAL: The United Arab Emirates might withdraw from a $23 billion deal for F-35 warplanes and drones over America's restrictions to safeguard the technologies from China, The Wall Street Journal's GORDON LUBOLD and WARREN STROBEL report. "It was unclear whether the $23 billion arms deal, inked in the final days of the Trump administration, is dead, or whether the Emirati threat is a bargaining move on the eve of a planned visit Wednesday by a high-level U.A.E. military delegation to the Pentagon for two days of talks," they wrote. "The letter was written by a relatively junior official in the government, suggesting it was a negotiating tactic heading into the meeting, U.S. officials said. Other officials said that while the U.S. has legitimate security concerns, there was a scramble to salvage the sale of weapons to a Gulf ally." "The U.A.E. has informed the U.S. that it will suspend discussions to acquire the F-35," a U.A.E. official said in a statement to WSJ. "Technical requirements, sovereign operational restrictions, and the cost/benefit analysis led to the reassessment." The U.S. "remains the U.A.E.'s preferred provider for advanced defense requirements and discussions for the F-35 may be reopened in the future," the Emirati official continued. NatSec Daily's sources say U.S. officials notified key congressional players in the last 24 hours about the UAE's waffling. AIR FORCE DISCHARGES 27 OVER COVID VACCINE REFUSAL: The Air Force discharged 27 out of 5,000 airmen and guardians who refused to take the Covid-19 vaccine, Air Force spokesperson ANN STEFANEK told NatSec Daily. "The majority were in their first enlistment with less than 6 years of service," which means they were likely younger and junior in rank. None of the 27 applied for a religious accommodation, she continued, and noted the draft National Defense Authorization Act compels service to discharge under only two designations: "honorable" or "general under honorable conditions." More than 97 percent of active-duty airmen and guardians are vaccinated, Stefanek added. Still, these are the first known discharges as a result of a service member refusing to take a potentially life-saving vaccine. The Army and Navy will announce their discharge plans by the end of the week, per our own PAUL MCLEARY. Republican lawmakers are already pushing back against the Air Force's decision. "These servicemen and women do not deserve a dishonorable discharge for choosing against the vaccine – a dishonorable discharge treats our heroes as felons and our American heroes deserve better," said Sen. ROGER MARSHALL (R-Kan.). "Forcing brave men and women out of uniform — in many cases completely unnecessarily because they still refuse to take natural immunity into account — is both un-American and anti-science," said Rep. MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.). | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: LAWMAKERS WANT MORE AMPHIBS: Sens. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) and TIM KAINE (D-Va.) are upping the pressure on Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN to commit to purchasing more amphibious warships, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN reports. In a letter obtained by POLITICO following an August meeting with the Pentagon, the pair pressed for an update on Navy force structure plans. They also urged the Pentagon to set aside money for more amphibious ships in the administration's upcoming budget request, arguing backing off will hurt the Navy's bottom line and the shipbuilding industry, and leave the U.S. short on needed ships at sea. "We would be shocked if any objective force structure assessment fails to revalidate the number and type of amphibious ships required," Wicker and Kaine wrote. "A further reduction would only complicate an already challenging strategic environment." NDAA ENDGAME: Compromise defense legislation cleared its last procedural hurdle in the Senate on Tuesday, and could soon be on its way to the White House for Biden's signature, O'Brien also reports. The Senate voted in an 86-13 blowout to cut off debate on the National Defense Authorization Act. Sixty votes were needed to advance the bill. The big vote signals the bill, which calls for a $25 billion increase to Biden's Pentagon budget, should have no trouble passing when a final vote occurs this week. DEAL ON UYGHUR BILL: House and Senate negotiators have clinched an agreement on legislation to crack down on China's human-rights violations in Xinjiang, with both chambers expected to vote soon on a bill that punishes Beijing over its treatment of Uyghur Muslims, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO reports. People familiar also told NatSec Daily that Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) and Rep. JIM MCGOVERN (D-Mass.) worked directly together on the deal, cutting out House Republicans who wanted a say. The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act is a bipartisan effort to stand up for the Muslim minority group in China that the U.S. believes has been the target of a genocide by the Chinese government. The legislation is a rebuke of the Chinese Communist Party, stipulating that all goods produced in Xinjiang were done so via forced labor. The Senate passed Rubio's bill unanimously earlier this year, and Rubio pumped the brakes on the annual defense policy bill this month as he pushed for inclusion of his Uyghur forced labor legislation. Though he delayed the legislation, Rubio was not successful in having the Uyghur measure attached to the final version. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Extending the warfighter's reach with long-range precision fires.
In partnership with the U.S. Army, PrSM successfully set a distance record during a recent flight test, continuing our commitment to accelerate future missions with speed, agility, and efficiency. Learn More | | | | | | GOP LAWMAKERS SLAM BIDEN ON UKRAINE: Two Republicans — Sen. MARSHA BLACKBURN (R-Tenn) and Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) — penned an op-ed for Fox News chiding Biden over his "inaction" on Ukraine. "Vladimir Putin smells weakness in the White House and is taking measurements for a new Iron Curtain," they wrote. "Make no mistake: Putin has made this latest, belligerent calculation based on the poor judgment coming from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue." "Putin is on the brink of launching the largest land invasion in Europe since World War II because he knows he can get away with it," they continued. They recommend that Biden send more lethal aid to Ukraine beyond the anti-tank missiles; bolster America's information operation in Russia; share more intelligence with Ukraine; and provide clean energy supplies to Washington's friends in Europe. It's unclear how that really differs from what the Biden administration is already doing, sending even more weaponry to Ukraine. But it goes to show how Putin's aggression has turned not only into an international problem for the president, but also a domestic political one.
| | | — ILAN GOLDENBERG is now principal deputy assistant secretary of Defense for international security affairs. He most recently was a senior fellow and director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. — RYAN HOM is joining Powell Tate, the Washington-based unit of the global Weber Shandwick network, where he will be part of the agency's social impact team. He most recently was director of executive operations at the United Nations Foundation. — The president has announced his intent to nominate ERIK RAVEN, the majority clerk of the Senate defense appropriations subcommittee, for undersecretary of the Navy; and KRISTYN JONES , a managing director in KPMG's federal advisory practice, for assistant secretary of the Air Force for financial management and comptroller.
| | | — KATHY GANNON, The Associated Press: "Afghan victims saddened US drone strike to go unpunished" — SHERIDAN PRASSO, Bloomberg: " China Initiative Set Out to Catch Spies. It Didn't Find Many" — SUE GORDON and ERIC ROSENBACH, Foreign Affairs: "America's Cyber-Reckoning" | | | — The Potomac Officers Club, 8 a.m.: "Air Force Information Technology Modernization and Digital Transformation Forum — with WINSTON BEAUCHAMP, JAY BONCI, JUSTIN COLLINS, KENNETH GAINES, CHRIS OWEN and more" — The National Committee on North Korea, 9 a.m.: "Can We Convince North Korea to Denuclearize when East Asia is in an Arms Race? — with KELSEY DAVENPORT, YONGSOO HWANG, BEE YUN JO, ADAM MOUNT and JIM WALSH" — The Cyber Threat Alliance, 10 a.m.: "The Sophos 2022 Threat Report: Interrelated Threats Target an Interdependent World — with ANDREW BRANDT and NEIL JENKINS" — Open Society Foundations, 12 p.m.: " After the Summit for Democracy: Shoring Up the Fundamentals of Democracy — with MICHAEL J. ABRAMOWITZ, ANNE APPLEBAUM, JOE ASUNKA, MARK MALLOCH-BROWN and ASHLEY QUARCOO" — The Washington Space Business Roundtable, 12 p.m.: " Second Year Anniversary of the Space Force: Progress to Date, Outstanding Challenges, and Role of Space Industry — with NINA M. ARMAGNO and KRISTIN FISHER" — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 1 p.m.: " The Future of Counterterrorism: Start By Defining the Threat — with JACQUELINE HAZELTON, JYTTE KLAUSEN, PAUL R. PILLAR and STEVEN SIMON" — Science Applications International Corporation, 1 p.m.: " Power Tomorrow's Transformative Missions — with RUSS FELLERS, GEORGE JACKSON, ADELAIDE O'BRIEN and BOB D. RITCHIE" — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 2 p.m.: " The National Nuclear Security Administration: Deterring Nuclear Aggression and Preventing Nuclear Proliferation — A Personal Perspective on NNSA's Past, Present & Future — with FRANK G. KLOTZ" — Senate Intelligence Committee, 2 p.m.: "Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, who often unleashes a blitzkrieg on our prose. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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