| | | | | |  | | By Quint Forgey and Alexander Ward | Presented by Lockheed Martin | With help from Paul McLeary. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Monday goes to show that great power competition between the United States and its two greatest geopolitical rivals — China and Russia — is alive and well. The day began with a senior administration official telling reporters that the U.S. and its allies would impose "significant and severe economic harm on the Russian economy" should the Kremlin authorize an invasion of Ukraine. Hours later, the White House announced President JOE BIDEN's decision to implement a "diplomatic boycott" of the 2022 Winter Olympics, meaning an official U.S. delegation won't travel to Beijing for the games. America's warning to Russia: On the news call organized by the National Security Council, the senior administration official told Quint and others that U.S. officials "have had intensive discussions with our European partners about what we would do collectively in the event of a major Russian military escalation in Ukraine, and we believe that we have a path forward that would involve substantial economic countermeasures by both the Europeans and the United States." But the official downplayed the possibility of direct U.S. military involvement in the standoff on Ukraine's eastern border, where Russia has amassed around 100,000 troops in a buildup that has ignited international concern. "I don't want to use a public press call to talk about the particular sensitive challenges that President Biden will lay out for President [VLADIMIR] PUTIN ," the official said. "But I would say that the United States is not seeking to end up in a circumstance in which the focus of our countermeasures is the direct use of American military force." The comments come the day before the Biden-Putin call, which some analysts see as the best way to relay U.S. concerns and potentially stave off a major conflict. But some analysts wish Biden had prepared more of a deterrent threat ahead of the chat. "Sanctions are a useful tool in some cases but Moscow has proven that sanctions alone will not deter its military intentions," said ALINA POLYAKOVA, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis, adding that the economic penalties should "be paired with increased security investments and defense posture." "Since 2014, when the U.S. first imposed sanctions on Russia for the annexation of Crimea, Russia has had time to prepare to hedge against future economic coercion, even the so-called nuclear option of disconnecting Russia from SWIFT," she continued. "Europe has much more economic leverage over Russia than the U.S., especially in the energy sector, so if the U.S. can't get Europeans on board, the effect will be significantly diminished," he continued. Biden officials snub Beijing games: Officially, White House press secretary JEN PSAKI attributed the diplomatic boycott decision to China's persecution of ethnic Uyghur Muslims in the Xinjiang region, as well as other human rights abuses. But that's just one entry on Washington's running list of criticisms toward Beijing, among them: recent aggression toward Taiwan, anti-democratic crackdown in Hong Kong, pursuit of hypersonic weapons technology, secrecy surrounding the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, adventurous maritime claims in the South China Sea, refusal to embrace more meaningful climate change reforms and its treatment of once-missing Chinese tennis player PENG SHUAI. Still, the White House announcement is technically a half measure, as American athletes will still be able to compete in the games. And it's not like high-level U.S. officials wanted to travel all that way to watch the biathlon, anyway. Pressed on why the administration didn't impose a full-scale boycott of the Winter Olympics — by prohibiting even athletes to attend — Psaki said U.S. officials didn't feel that "it was the right step to penalize athletes who have been training, preparing for this moment, and we felt we could send a clear message by not sending an official U.S. delegation." That hasn't satisfied the administration's critics. "There should be a full boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics," Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wisc.), a retired Marine and House Armed Services Committee member, said in a statement. "For the millions of the [Chinese Communist Party's] victims — and for the health and safety of U.S. athletes — a diplomatic boycott is not enough." | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | POLITICO AT REAGAN: Our crack defense team spent the weekend at the Reagan National Defense Forum, chatting on the sidelines with the national security elite from the U.S. and around the world. PAUL MCLEARY sent us a couple highlights from his conversations: U.K. ambassador wants united Europe on Ukraine: Britain's Ambassador to the U.S. KAREN PIERCE underscored how important keeping Europe on message, and on point, will be in the coming days and weeks of the latest Ukraine crisis. "Keeping NATO united is a very important factor," she told McLeary. "Providing Ukraine with the means to reform and the money to reform economically is actually one of the keys to reducing the areas where Putin can pick off different bits of Ukraine. We as Brits are very interested in the question of what more equipment could be given to Ukraine to enhance their defensive capabilities. I don't think that's a NATO position yet, but it is something we have been talking about. And messaging to Russia, in private as well, is always part of this." Pierce also said if economic sanctions are necessary in the wake of a Russian invasion, they would have to be big. "The [Biden] administration, as you know, said Russia would face the most sweeping sanctions yet. There's a certain amount of sanctions Russia can tolerate [but] being cut off from access to the financial markets of the world, that would be a whole new ballgame for them." No Finnish decision on new warplane: Reports emerged Sunday night that Finland had selected the F-35 to replace its F-18 Hornets, but a Finnish government official told McLeary Monday that no final decision had been made as of yet. (NatSec Daily's sources said the same thing.) The F-35 is up against F/A-18s, France's Dassault Rafale, the U.K.'s Eurofighter Typhoon and the Swedish Saab Gripen E/F. At the Reagan Forum in California this weekend, Finland's ambassador to the U.S., MIKKO HAUTALA, told McLeary the ongoing competition "shows that Finland is putting a lot of resources and are investing in our defense, to make sure that we can defend ourselves and also bring stability in the region." That led to the question of Finland's potential to apply to join the NATO alliance at some point, as the country participates in more NATO military exercises and eyes its long eastern border with Russia warily. Buying a fighter plane like the F-35 would bring the country in line with neighbors like Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands, who all fly the plane. "We cooperate with NATO in many respects," Hautala said. "We also have a lot of bilateral cooperation with the U.S., Sweden, also increasingly with Norway, so we have a lot of security partnerships going on." How about Russian pressure to keep Finland out of the alliance? Hautala said membership is "an issue that belongs to a country which might or might not apply. And of course, the decision who becomes a member belongs to NATO so we don't think anyone else — Russia or any outsider — should have a say on that." Politico Pros can read our team's full readout from the Reagan Forum. ANTI-CORRUPTION STRATEGY: The administration released America's first-ever anti-corruption strategy Monday, which will entice other nations to be more transparent about their financial dealings and require more restrictions on U.S. real estate purchases to curb money laundering. The strategy comprises of "five mutually-reinforcing pillars," per a White House fact sheet: — Modernizing, coordinating and resourcing U.S. government efforts to fight corruption, with a focus on "Increasing law enforcement resources and bolstering information sharing between the intelligence community and law enforcement." — Curbing illicit finance, namely "Enacting first-of-their-kind regulations that target those closest to real estate transactions to reveal when real estate is used to hide ill-gotten cash or to launder criminal proceeds." — Holding corrupt actors accountable, including "Establishing a kleptocracy asset recovery rewards program that will enhance the U.S. Government's ability to identify and recover stolen assets linked to foreign government corruption that are held at U.S. financial institutions." — Preserving and strengthening the multilateral anti-corruption architecture, like "Working with the G7 and G20 to implement strong transparency and anti-corruption measures across ministerial tracks" — Improving diplomatic engagement and leveraging foreign assistance resources to achieve anti-corruption policy goals, such as "Expanding anti-corruption focused U.S. assistance, and monitoring the efficacy of this assistance" The 38-page plan comes just three days before the U.S.-hosted virtual Summit for Democracy, where anti-corruption initiatives are expected to feature in much of the two-day discussion. JOSH RUDOLPH, a fellow for malign finance at the German Marshall Fund, tweeted that the strategy is "the most sweeping anti-corruption policy initiative in American history." BEN FRIEDMAN, policy director of Defense Priorities, still says that distinction belongs to the Pendleton Civil Service Reform Act of 1883, "and it's not close." The U.S. also tends to announce a bunch of Magnitsky sanctions in early December, so there's a chance those will come out around the summit, too. NEW CHINA BASE ON AFRICA'S ATLANTIC COAST: Intelligence shows China aims to build a military base in Equatorial Guinea — which would give Beijing's forces their first permanent foothold on the Atlantic Ocean. "[T]he [intelligence] reports raise the prospect that Chinese warships would be able to rearm and refit opposite the East Coast of the U.S. — a threat that is setting off alarm bells at the White House and Pentagon," The Wall Street Journal's MICHAEL PHILLIPS reported. "In Equatorial Guinea, the Chinese likely have an eye on Bata, according to a U.S. official. Bata already has a Chinese-built deep-water commercial port on the Gulf of Guinea, and excellent highways link the city to Gabon and the interior of Central Africa." "Principal deputy U.S. national security adviser JON FINER visited Equatorial Guinea in October on a mission to persuade President TEODORO OBIANG NGUEMA MBASOGO and his son and heir apparent, Vice President TEODORO 'TEODORIN' NGUEMA OBIANG MANGUE, to reject China's overtures," Phillips continued. The U.S. apparently learned of the planned installation during the Trump administration. "U.S. intelligence agencies began picking up indications of China's military intentions in Equatorial Guinea in 2019. During the closing days of the Trump administration, a senior Pentagon official visited the country, but the approach apparently left the Obiangs uncertain about how seriously the U.S. took China's military aspirations," Phillips reported. Reached by NatSec Daily, a senior congressional aide reacted to the news: "In some cases we're going to have to make countries choose, or they're not going to rebuff China on key national security issues such as this." Equatorial Guinea is a famously corrupt place and Obiang is the world's longest-serving leader — so a perfect location for a Chinese base. IT'S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @AndrewDesiderio. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today, so you can protect what matters most.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate in a different technological era and are behind the digital connectivity found in everyday life. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating the adoption of leading-edge networking and related technologies into our national defense enterprise, while enhancing the performance of our major platforms to provide unmatched situational awareness, command and control across land, sea, air, space and cyber. Learn More | | | | | | AUNG SAN SUU KYI IMPRISONED: Myanmar's deposed leader AUNG SAN SUU KYI will spend at least the next two years (after having a four-year sentence cut in half) in prison after a widely criticized tribunal found her guilty of incitement and breaking Covid-19 rules. This is the first verdict of about a dozen charges that could see Suu Kyi, 76, behind bars for the rest of her life. "They include several charges of corruption — which each carry a maximum prison sentence of 15 years — violating Covid-19 pandemic restrictions during the 2020 election campaign, incitement, illegally importing and possessing walkie talkies, and breaking the colonial-era Official Secrets Act — which carries a maximum sentence of 14 years in prison," CNN's HELEN REGAN reported. Suu Kyi and Myanmar's civilian leadership were overthrown in a February military coup that ended the Southeast Asian country's decadelong flirtation with democracy. The Biden administration's efforts to make the junta change course haven't worked.
| | | NEW OMB CYBER RULES: Our own SAM SABIN, writing in Weekly Cybersecurity, reports on the Office of Management and Budget's cybersecurity rules following a Biden's executive order to federal agencies to improve their digital hygiene. Here are the new rules (not set by Dua Lipa): — Focus on the risk: When agencies' chief information officers report their quarterly security metrics to the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and OMB, their focus will no longer be on limited assessments of their capabilities, but rather on how well their tools mitigate cyber risks. OMB is also moving up the annual reporting deadline for more detailed inspector general cybersecurity reports from October to July, starting in 2022. — Automate, automate, automate: CISA must develop a plan by April, in coordination with OMB and Commerce's National Institute of Standards and Technology, to establish a strategy for improving data collection about various security standards so OMB can automate scoring of agencies' security posture by the end of next year. — Tell me more: CISA will share information about major cyber incidents at federal agencies with OMB in two monthly reports. The first will provide precise details about each incident, while the second will indicate which ones were of top priority and for what reasons. — Running drills: OMB also expressed interest in setting up more security drills and tests of agencies' security systems, similar to the penetration testing that well-intentioned hackers use to assess private companies' safeguards.
| | | 'ABSOLUTE AND UNMITIGATED LIARS': The former top attorney to the D.C. National Guard chief called two generals "absolute and unmitigated liars" following their testimony to the Pentagon's inspector general about the Jan. 6 insurrection, per a memo exclusively obtained by our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN and MERIDITH MCGRAW. The DoD IG report released last month says the Defense Department reacted appropriately in response to the riots. But Maj. Gen. WILLIAM WALKER , then commander of the D.C. National Guard, disputes that narrative, saying it took hours for the Pentagon to seek his help to defend the Capitol. The memo by Col. EARL MATTHEWS echoes Walker's story. "Every leader in the D.C. Guard wanted to respond and knew they could respond to the riot at the seat of government" before they were given clearance to do so on Jan. 6, Matthews wrote. But instead they sat "stunned watching in the Armory" during the first hours of the attack on Congress. Matthews' biggest accusation is that Gen. CHARLES FLYNN, who served as deputy chief of staff for operations on Jan. 6, and Lt. Gen. WALTER PIATT, the director of Army staff, lied in their interviews and Congressional testimony with the independent IG. "Matthews' memo levels major accusations: that Flynn and Piatt lied to Congress about their response to pleas for the D.C. Guard to quickly be deployed on Jan. 6; that the Pentagon inspector general's November report on Army leadership's response to the attack was 'replete with factual inaccuracies'; and that the Army has created its own closely held revisionist document about the Capitol riot that's 'worthy of the best Stalinist or North Korea propagandist,'" Woodruff Swan and McGraw recount. SECAF: 2 SECRET COMBAT DRONES IN WORKS: Secretary of the Air Force FRANK KENDALL told our BRYAN BENDER and LEE HUDSON his service is seeking funding to develop two secret combat drones next year that can operate alongside fighter planes and bombers. "I've got two that I'm going to have in the '23 budget in some form," Kendall told Bender and Hudson at the Reagan National Defense Forum on Saturday. "They're both unmanned air combat vehicles, unmanned platforms that are designed to work in conjunction with fighter aircraft like [the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter] or F-22 or the F-35. On the other hand they work in conjunction with bombers like the B-21." He said the existence of the programs will be disclosed formally in the budget request, which will go to Congress early next year, but the details will be secret. "These will be acknowledged classified programs," Kendall explained, "but I am going to try to get them started in '23." "The disclosure is the strongest indication yet that the service is banking on autonomous weapon systems to give it an edge in the increasingly fierce military competition with China," the two reported. | | | |   | | | | | | WITHER THE TWO-STATE SOLUTION?: Our own ANDREW DESIDERIO makes an interesting observation about this Congress: "Six months after a shooting war in Gaza, Congress is more involved in controversies over Islamophobia and anti-Semitism than it is in resuscitating a two-state solution in the Middle East." "Support for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel has notably declined on Capitol Hill as poisonous rhetoric replaces policy debates about long-term security in a region where conflict has flared for more than a generation. For many lawmakers — and more prominently in the GOP as of late — the weaponization of Islamophobia and anti-Semitism has become the rule, not the exception," he reported. Two Republican lawmakers –– Reps. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) –– called Rep. ILHAN OMAR (D-Minn.) a terrorist and jihadist, seemingly just because she's a Muslim. And Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.) took flack from a left-wing group for meeting with Israeli leaders (but no Palestinians), even though Bowman has been very critical of the right-wing government in Jerusalem. "What we're seeing is a willingness to weaponize and politicize that takes us away from substantive, core policy issues. The kinds of substantive national-security tactics that Congress loves to engage in and debate about are suddenly a sideshow," JOEL RUBIN, the executive director of the American Jewish Congress, told Desiderio. U.S. officials and analysts have long told NatSec Daily that the administration just isn't interested in spending time and effort on a two-state solution, especially because it seems so far out of reach. But there are still some lawmakers who want to pursue that policy vigorously still, namely Rep. ANDY LEVIN (D-Mich.). NatSec Daily loyalists might recall how he in September proposed the most far-reaching legislation ever to make a two-state solution official U.S. policy.
| | | SECDEF BLASTS CONGRESS OVER CR: Secretary of Defense LLOYD AUSTIN warned lawmakers in a lengthy statement that a long-term continuing resolution could cause "enormous, if not irreparable, damage for a wide range of bipartisan priorities." Austin argues that a CR would amount to a budget cut for the Pentagon, hurting recruitment, delaying construction projects and impacting the development and purchasing of defense programs. "At a time when our adversaries are advancing their concepts and capabilities to erode our strategic advantages … and as we begin to knit together a truly groundbreaking vision of integrated deterrence … our hands will be tied. We will be forced to spend money on things we don't need and stop spending money on investments we desperately do need," Austin said in the statement.
| | | — DAVID LAWRENCE, a political adviser to the Trade Justice Movement in the U.K., will join the Chatham House think tank in January to work on a new project about Britain's place in the world.
| | | — Sen. CHRIS COONS, Foreign Affairs: "Peace Is Still Possible in Ethiopia." — ELIZABETH DICKINSON, Foreign Policy: " Lockdowns Produced a New Generation of Child Soldiers" — DEXTER FILKINS, New Yorker: "The Accidental Revolutionary Leading Belarus's Uprising" | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today, so you can protect what matters most.
For generations, customers have counted on Lockheed Martin to help them overcome their most complex challenges. To align with the priorities of our customers in the decades ahead, Lockheed Martin has developed a concept for accelerating American and allied military modernization and preserving global deterrence called 21st Century Warfare.
Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate in a different technological era and are behind the digital connectivity found in everyday life. Through our 21st Century Warfare vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating the adoption of leading-edge networking and related technologies into our national defense enterprise, while enhancing the performance of our major platforms.
With a portfolio that spans every branch of the military, Lockheed Martin's unique insights into enabling joint all-domain operations helps us build the technologies that enable unmatched situational awareness, command and control across all domains. Learn More | | | | | | — The Biden-Putin call: "The leaders will discuss a range of topics in the U.S.-Russia relationship, including strategic stability, cyber, and regional issues. President Biden will underscore U.S. concerns with Russian military activities on the border with Ukraine and reaffirm the United States' support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine," per the White House. — The Association of the United States Army, 8 a.m.: "Holistic Health and the Soldier: An Army Medical Hot Topic — with GARY M. BRITO, ALEX BRODY, ROBERT B. BROWN, R. SCOTT DINGLE, DIAMOND D. HOUGH and more" — The Asia Foundation, 9 a.m.: " Making Democracy Deliver in the Indo-Pacific — with CARMELA FONBUENA, BIVITRI SUSANTI and CONSTANTINO XAVIER" — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9 a.m.: "The Future of the China-Russia Partnership — with ALEXANDER GABUEV, GUAN GUIHAI, PAUL HAENLE and JENNIFER BRICK MURTAZASHVILI" — The George Washington University's Institute for Korean Studies, 9 a.m.: "Korea Policy Forum: South Korea's Presidential Election and U.S.-ROK Relations — with CELESTE ARRINGTON, ALEXIS DUDDEN, JOON HYUNG KIM, YONHO KIM, BEOMCHUL SHIN and MARK TOKOLA" — The American Enterprise Institute, 9:30 a.m.: "Artificial Intelligence: Can We Go From Chaos to Cooperation? — with ELISABETH BRAW, XIAOLAN FU, JONATHAN KEWLEY and DAVID VAN WEEL" — House Oversight and Reform Committee, 9:30 a.m.: "Subcommittee Hearing: Examining the Worldwide Threat of al Qaeda, ISIS, and Other Foreign Terrorist Organizations — with MILANCY HARRIS and CHRISTOPHER LANDBERG" — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: "Carnegie Connects: Democracy in Peril — with FRANCES Z. BROWN, RACHEL KLEINFELD and AARON DAVID MILLER" — Defense One, 10 a.m.: "Outlook 2022 — with LLOYD AUSTIN, TIMOTHY BROOK, IVO H. DAALDER, DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO, JOEL VOWELL and more" — The Heritage Foundation, 10 a.m.: "U.S. Nuclear Declaratory Policy and the Future of Extended Deterrence — with PATTY-JANE GELLER, KONO TARO, JIM RISCH and GEORGE ROBERTSON" — Senate Judiciary Committee, 10 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Closing Guantanamo: Ending 20 Years of Injustice" — Senate Rules and Administration Committee, 10 a.m.: "Oversight of the U.S. Capitol Police Following the January 6th Attack on the Capitol, Part II — with MICHAEL BOLTON" — The Center for a New American Security, 10:30 a.m.: "Containing Crisis: Strategic Concepts for Coercive Economic Statecraft on China — with AMI BERA, EMILY JIN, EMILY KILCREASE and RACHEL ZIEMBA" — The Johns Hopkins University's Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 11 a.m.: "The Age of AI and Our Human Future — with FRANCIS J. GAVIN, HENRY KISSINGER, ERIC SCHMIDT and JAMES STEINBERG" — The Wilson Center, 11 a.m.: "Pathways to Justice: Gender-Based Violence and the Rule of Law — with ARIELA BLÄTTER, NATALIE GONNELLA-PLATTS, MOUSHIRA KHATTAB, MARIANNA MURAVYEVA, BEATRIZ GARCÍA NICE and HARI SESHASAYEE" — The Stimson Center, 12 p.m.: " Progressing Cyber Accountability: The Private Sector, NGOs and the U.N. — with DEBRA DECKER, JÜRG LAUBER, ALLISON PYTLAK and MICHAEL TEODORI" — The Wilson Center, 12 p.m.: " Ukraine's Security Council and Its Impact on Politics and Media — with VADYM DENYSENKO, OLENA LENNON, BRIAN MILAKOVSKY and WILLIAM E. POMERANZ" — Senate Intelligence Committee, 2 p.m.: "Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Update on U.S.-Russia Policy — with VICTORIA NULAND" — Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, 4 p.m.: " Trends, Challenges, and Solutions for Government National Security Apparatus — with SUE GORDON, DEAN JUDITH KELLEY and TIM NICHOLS" — The Stimson Center, 7 p.m.: "Kim Jong Un at 10 Years: Evaluating the Regime and Future Prospects — with ROBERT CARLIN, RACHEL MINYOUNG LEE, SANG-HYUN LEE, JENNY TOWN and YANG UN-CHUL" — The U.S. Global Leadership Coalition, 8 p.m.: "2021 Tribute Celebration — with MADELEINE ALBRIGHT, ANTÓNIO GUTERRES, CONDOLEEZZA RICE, JEANNE SHAHEEN, TODD YOUNG and more." | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who would completely boycott us if he could. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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