| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
President Joe Biden delivers remarks for the White House's virtual Summit For Democracy on December 10, 2021 in Washington, DC. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint PROGRAMMING NOTE: National Security Daily won't publish from Mon., Dec. 20 to Fri., Dec. 31. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Mon., Jan. 3. Happy holidays! As this is NatSec Daily's last edition of 2021, we wanted to reflect on the key theme we heard over and over this year: America is clearly wrestling with the true limits of its power. Folks we talked to repeatedly mentioned the following: There were coups in Sudan and Myanmar the U.S. could do little about, a war in Ethiopia it has struggled to curb, an Iran deal it failed to reenter, threats from Russia and China it strained to deter, a pandemic it couldn't tame at home or abroad, the large-scale global climate reforms it only partly catalyzed, and a chaotic Afghan collapse its departure precipitated. Oh, and before JOE BIDEN got to put "President" ahead of his name, there was that whole Jan. 6 insurrection that tarnished America's image as the world's democratic example. It's not like the U.S. ever had the luxury of achieving all of its goals whenever it wanted. And America has gone through very tough times before, arguably far more so than today. Think back to the reactions to the Vietnam and Iraq Wars, or that sense of national helplessness during the Iranian hostage crisis. Plus, challenges today aren't like those of yesteryear –– they're transnational, they're interconnected and they move quickly. Despite all that, many we spoke with — members of both parties, U.S. and foreign officials, and analysts — couldn't shake the feeling that 2021 was a humbling year for America. Not since the halcyon days of the immediate post-Cold War era has such a powerful nation moiled to get its way, many claimed. It's a startling sentiment, one that prompted us to play the D.C. natsec community's therapist to see why so many feel this way. How we got here depends on who you ask. Administration officials say it'll take more than a year to claw back from the Trump-era depths, and that the first year was both about positioning the country for future successes and racking up wins. Some insist that America's problems stem from systemic dysfunctions and geopolitical shifts that are too big for any one administration to solve. "It's a very difficult time in history and foreign policy, but the United States has exacerbated it. It made a hard situation far more difficult by what it's done and what it hasn't done," Council on Foreign Relations President RICHARD HAASS told NatSec Daily. Getting Russia and China to heel requires an immense national effort, for example, but the U.S. is so focused on domestic problems and internal divisions that it's hard to muster a collective effort for those challenges. "There's no switch you flip" to fix all that, he added. Others said the world's problems are simply too complex for administrations distracted by crises to fix. "I think what's going on is more like frustration. Iran, Russia, China ... all of these problems are just sort of stuck — they're not really solvable," said the CATO Institute's JUSTIN LOGAN. But many insisted the Biden administration deserves some blame for the struggles of 2021. A European official, who wasn't authorized to speak publicly with the press, noted the current team's love of process slowed down America's responses to key challenges. "Everything was always 'under review' … We wanted to talk about China, it was under review. The future of NATO? Under review. How to deal with Russia? Under review," the official said about early deliberations with U.S. officials, granting that the administration eventually acted decisively once it chose a policy. NatSec Daily heard repeatedly over the past year that allies are troubled about the direction of U.S. policy, and wary of cozying to the administration. "In U.S. politics, for the first time in a while, it's clear that 'America First' is a longstanding trend. We don't blame them for that, but that means we have to change our thinking," the European official told us. Of course, nothing Biden did would ever satisfy his critics. "Nearly a year into office, President Biden has failed at handling every crisis that's fallen on his plate," NIKKI HALEY, the former U.N. ambassador in the Trump administration, told us. "America is still the greatest country in the world, but with Biden's horrible track record, both our friends and foes have taken notice." But to be fair, in foreign and defense policy at least, the Biden administration has at least three more years to accomplish its goals. It's perhaps too early to claim 2021 a success or failure, seeing as much of what's happened will take years to satisfyingly judge through the lens of history. But it's clear that the next years' landscape poses some extreme challenges, whether that's a renewed invasion of Ukraine, a forceful takeover attempt of Taiwan, Iran's steamroll toward enrichment or something else. "Our theory of American influence in the world is largely predicated on two things — our domestic strength, which President Biden has invested in restoring, and on our alliances and partnerships, which are a force multiplier for our country and a uniquely American asset. Both of these are significantly stronger in December 2021 than they were in January 2021," said ADRIENNE WATSON, a National Security Council spokesperson. "Our theory of American influence and power is much more powerful than the one that preceded it." | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | RUSSIA MAKES DEMANDS FOR NEW NATO DEAL: Russia is requesting a written guarantee that NATO will not expand farther east toward Moscow as part of President VLADIMIR PUTIN 's series of demands for a new security agreement with the military alliance, report The New York Times' ANDREW E. KRAMER and STEVEN ERLANGER. As part of the proposed pact — which the Kremlin claims is meant to deescalate tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border — Moscow also wants assurances from NATO that it "will end all military activity in Ukraine and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus," as well as "remove all military infrastructure installed in Eastern Europe after 1997," Kramer writes. Meanwhile, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG confirmed the alliance had received the terms of Russia's proposal Friday, per The Associated Press. He made clear "that any dialogue with Russia would also need to address NATO's concerns about Russia's actions, be based on core principles and documents of European security, and take place in consultation with NATO's European partners, such as Ukraine." White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters that U.S. officials "have seen the Russian proposals," and that "we're discussing them with our European allies and partners." But she emphasized that "there will be no talks on European security" without the Europeans at the negotiating table. "We will not compromise the key principles on which European security is built, including that all countries have the right to decide their own future and foreign policy free from outside interference," she said. The U.S. has long said that Georgia and Ukraine could make their own decisions about joining NATO or not, and the Biden administration doesn't want to go back on that commitment — or at least not have Russia force such a shift. A senior administration official told reporters today that it's not in Russia's interest to delve deeper into the Ukraine conflict. "Let's remember that Russia has one of the highest Covid levels in the world. The Russian people don't need a war with Ukraine. They don't need their sons coming home in body bags. They don't need another foreign adventure. What they need is better health care, building better roads, schools, economic opportunity, and that's what the polling is showing in Russia. so we hope that President Putin will take this opportunity for diplomacy and will also listen to the needs of his own people," the official said. Meanwhile, the White House is debating sending military equipment — like helicopters once bound for Afghan troops — to Ukraine to bolster that country's defenses, The Wall Street Journal's VIVIAN SALAMA, MICHAEL GORDON and GORDON LUBOLD reported Friday. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CHINA EXPANDING KEY PLA FACILITY: The Chinese People's Liberation Army has expanded installations to boost its ability to track and counter foriegn forces both on Earth and in space, per satellite imagery analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C. The new facilities near Mumian on Hainan Island support the PLA's electronic warfare (or EW), communications and intelligence gathering capabilities, report MATTHEW FUNAIOLE, JOSEPH BERMUDEZ and BRIAN HART in a blog post seen first by NatSec Daily. Imagery from November 21, though, "reveals the recent construction of several key new assets." | 
Satellite imagery of an expanded EW/SIGINT facility on Hainan, per a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. | CSIS/High Resolution/Maxar 2021 | "A new SATCOM/COMINT complex on the southern side of the area consists of a large building, an array of four dish antennas (three 14 meters wide and one 4 meters wide) for SATCOM and tracking, and at least four tall tower antennas suitable for communications or EW. An older northern facility in the area has an array of three tower antennas, likely for use in EW," they wrote. "Several large new buildings have also been constructed. One likely serves as the overall headquarters for the entire site, while another serves as headquarters and administration for the new SATCOM/COMINT complex. A third building, likely for maintenance and housing personnel, is positioned nearby. Distributed throughout the enlarged facility are at least 90 vehicles and trailers of various types, including a sizeable number featuring mounted antennas (configured as either a single large antenna or two smaller antennas)." It took a little more than a year to finish all this construction, the three reported. They assess that the new assets will help the PLA's Southern Theater Command project more power in the South China Sea while simultaneously preparing the force for future challenges. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AMERICANS WARY OF GOING TO WAR OVER UKRAINE: A new YouGov poll commissioned by the pro-restraint Charles Koch Institute found that there are more Americans skeptical of going to war with Russia than those who are gung-ho. In response to the question "If Ukraine is invaded again by Russia, do you favor or oppose the US going to war with Russia to protect Ukraine's territorial integrity?" 28 percent of respondents said they "strongly oppose" the idea while another 20 percent said they "somewhat oppose" it. By contrast, only 9 percent said they "strongly favor" going to war with Russia and 18 percent said they "somewhat favor" the notion. Meanwhile, 24 percent of the 1,000 internet-using Americans surveyed said they "don't know." That's not an outright repudiation of the idea of going to war to defend Ukraine from Moscow's forces, but this one poll indicates a majority of people are at least skeptical. Importantly, Biden to date has ruled out sending U.S. troops to Ukraine to fight the Russians, were they to invade. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin's LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn More | | | DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington's national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring Rep. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.), the House Armed Services Committee member, retired Marine and onetime presidential candidate. When he's not talking to NatSec Daily about Ukraine or to others about national service , you can find the lawmaker at Beuchert's Saloon sipping a "Southeast Side," which is made of Old Grand-Dad bourbon, grapefruit, ginger, lemon and mint. Alex is a big ginger and bourbon fan — and he's from Massachusetts — so this one resonates. Cheers, Congressman! IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | 62K AFGHAN ALLIES STILL STRANDED: Roughly 62,000 Afghan interpreters and others who applied for visas to the United States remain in the Taliban-controlled country, reports The Wall Street Journal's JESSICA DONATI , and about 33,000 Afghans who cleared the burdensome vetting requirements could be eligible for immediate evacuation. The United States is co-organizing a couple of flights a week, per Donati. And although the number of U.S. evacuation flights — which are facilitated by Qatar and locals in Afghanistan — have increased in recent weeks, the seats on those planes are prioritized for Americans and U.S. residents. Depending on conditions at Kabul's airport and the weather, it may take "until well into 2022 to complete the evacuation of those [33,000 Afghans] who already qualify for flights," Donati writes. As for the 29,000 visa applicants who have not completed the vetting process, add tens of thousands more to that number for the unvetted applicants' family members.
| | | CHINESE SPIES USED HUAWEI IN HACK: In 2012, Australian officials said an update to Huawei software led to an intrusion on Australia's telecommunications systems. That finding over a decade ago has served as the foundation for U.S.-led concerns that Beijing uses Huawei to spy on governments, Bloomberg News' JORDAN ROBERTSON and JAMIE TARABAY report in an explosive investigation. "The update appeared legitimate, but it contained malicious code that worked much like a digital wiretap, reprogramming the infected equipment to record all the communications passing through it before sending the data to China," they wrote, citing information relayed to them by seven officials. "After a few days, that code deleted itself, the result of a clever self-destruct mechanism embedded in the update, they said. Ultimately, Australia's intelligence agencies determined that China's spy services were behind the breach, having infiltrated the ranks of Huawei technicians who helped maintain the equipment and pushed the update to the telecom's systems." They continued: "Guided by Australia's tip, American intelligence agencies that year confirmed a similar attack from China using Huawei equipment located in the U.S., six of the former officials said, declining to provide further detail." This report provides the clearest public case that Huawei can be used by authorities in Beijing to surveil others. The company has long denied those charges, and Bloomberg "didn't find evidence that Huawei's senior leadership was involved with or aware of the attack." | | | |   | | | | | | SENATE GREEN-LIGHTS GRADY: Navy Adm. CHRISTOPHER GRADY was confirmed as vice chair of the Joint Chiefs by voice vote Thursday night as senators pushed to wrap up the chamber's business before leaving for the holidays, reports our own CONNOR O'BRIEN. The role of the U.S. military's second-ranking officer had been unfilled for nearly a month since the retirement of Air Force Gen. JOHN HYTEN . Biden nominated Grady in early November, making a temporary vacancy in the vice chair post almost inevitable. Senate Republicans, for their part, criticized Biden's holdup in naming a nominee, arguing it was an unforced error by the White House at a time of rising global threats. Grady most recently led the Navy's Fleet Forces Command, which is tasked with ensuring that the fleet is manned, trained and equipped before deploying. Grady handed over leadership of Fleet Forces Command to Adm. DARYL CAUDLE in a change-of-command ceremony earlier this month. Grady is Biden's first nominee to the Joint Chiefs. | | | OSSOFF WANTS ROK AMBASSADOR PICK: Sen. JON OSSOFF (D-Ga.) wants Biden to name an ambassador to South Korea stat. "The U.S.-ROK alliance is strong, and it is vital to international peace and security. In my view, it is urgent that we have in place a Senate-confirmed ambassador to represent the United States, implement U.S. foreign policy from our embassy in Seoul, and strengthen our relationship with the ROK," he wrote in a Wednesday letter to Biden released today. The Senator was in South Korea last month where he met with key government and economic leaders. NatSec Daily keeps hearing from perplexed officials about why there's still no nominee for Seoul, considering that he already named RAHM EMMANUEL to be the ambassador to Japan. That frustration is clearly alive in at least one Democratic Senate office. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn More | | | DEMS APPLAUD 'NSO BLACKLIST' LEGISLATION PASSAGE: Four House Democrats are ecstatic a measure blacklisting companies known to sell hacking or spyware to governments that abuse human rights passed in this year's National Defense Authorization Act. The new law "compels the State Department to send Congress an annual report listing companies that have 'facilitated a cyber attack or conducted surveillance' directed by human rights-abusing governments against 'activists, journalists, opposition politicians,' and other vulnerable individuals," Reps. TOM MALINOWSKI (D-N.J.), KATIE PORTER (D-Calif.), JOAQUIN CASTRO (D-Texas) and ANNA ESHOO (D-Calif.) said in a joint statement. "We urge the State Department to fully and faithfully implement this new law in coordination with Congress. Doing so will demonstrate that the Biden administration meant what it said when it committed to protecting freedom and democracy from modern digital surveillance." The law comes after continued reports that spyware created Israel's NSO Group was found on the phones of journalists, human rights activists and more. As a result, the U.S. last month put the company on the "entity list."
| | | EXPERTS TELL BIDEN TO RESTORE 'FEAR' IN TEHRAN: Seven national security heavyweights signed a statement Friday offering a particularly harsh assessment of the United States' nuclear negotiations with Iran — arguing that diplomacy between the two nations "appears to be moving backward" while Tehran "is actively moving toward" atomic weapons capability. The statement — authored by HOWARD BERMAN, MICHÈLE FLOURNOY, JANE HARMAN, LEON PANETTA, DAVID PETRAEUS, DENNIS ROSS, and ROBERT SATLOFF — goes on to warn that "political isolation, condemnatory resolutions in international fora and additional economic sanctions" imposed by the United States against Iran "are not sufficient at this stage" to convince leaders in Tehran to change course. "Therefore," the signers write, "for the sake of our diplomatic effort to resolve this crisis, we believe it is vital to restore Iran's fear that its current nuclear path will trigger the use of force against it by the United States." Among the suggested U.S. actions outlined in the statement are "high-profile military exercises by the U.S. Central Command, potentially in concert with allies and partners, that simulate what would be involved in such a significant operation, including rehearsing air-to-ground attacks on hardened targets and the suppression of Iranian missile batteries."
| | | — FRED FLEITZ has resigned as president and CEO of the Center for Security Policy to join the America First Policy Institute, the think tank run by former Trump administration officials and allies of the former president. He previously served as deputy assistant to the president and chief of staff of the National Security Council in the Trump White House. DON WOODSMALL is taking over as CSP's interim president and CEO. — VICTORIA COATES — a senior fellow at CSP who served as deputy national security adviser under Trump — has resigned effective Jan. 1 to pursue other private-sector opportunities, while JOHN ROSSOMANDO has been laid off from his role as senior analyst for defense policy at CSP for budgetary reasons, he announced.
| | | — SELCAN HACAOGLU, Bloomberg: "Turkey's Erdogan Is Losing Support Where He Can Least Afford It" — EMMA ASHFORD and MATTHEW KROENIG, Foreign Policy: "Will 2022 Bring More War and Chaos?" — HANNAH ALLAM and ANJUMAN ALI, The Washington Post: "He was a Muslim group leader. For 13 years, he allegedly spied for an anti-Muslim organization."
| | | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: "The Future of Security in Venezuela — with RYAN C. BERG, WILLIAM BROWNFIELD and IVAN SIMONOVIS" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 5 p.m.: "A Conversation with Paul Spiegel on the Afghan Healthcare System — with J. STEPHEN MORRISON and LEONARD RUBENSTEIN" — The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: "Europe is Essential and NATO is the Key — with MICHAEL RYAN" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who we say had a very successful 2021. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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