| | | | | | | Presented By United to Safeguard America from Illegal Trade (USA-IT) | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By the Axios Politics team ·Nov 29, 2021 | | Welcome back to Sneak. We hope you had a restful holiday recess. ⚡ Situational awareness: Tonight marks the first anniversary of week-nightly Sneak. Thanks for being such a great audience! - If you have any ideas or feedback, write us at Sneak@Axios.com.
Smart Brevity™ count: 1,181 words ... 4.5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Biden fears Iran point of no return |  | | | Officials gather in Vienna today for the first day of renewed nuclear talks with Iran. Photo: EU Vienna Delegation/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images | | | | U.S. officials have extremely low expectations as world powers resume negotiations with Iran to curb its nuclear program, believing the Iranians aren't yet ready to negotiate seriously, Axios' Jonathan Swan is told. Driving the news: Senior officials in the U.S. intelligence community have assessed the new Iranian president, Ebrahim Raisi, thinks of his predecessor, Hassan Rouhani, as a weak accommodationist who negotiated a bad deal with the U.S. and other world powers in 2015. - To the extent there's optimism within the Biden administration, it's rooted in the hope Raisi may ultimately be willing to negotiate a new agreement not so different from the last but branded a "Raisi" deal rather than a Rouhani one.
- Former President Trump made his own effort to scrap everything that had Barack Obama's name attached to it.
The big picture: Top Biden officials are deeply worried Iran will go too far in its current nuclear development, making it too late to return to the 2015 agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), according to sources familiar with internal administration discussions. - The concern is rooted in the fact scientists can't unlearn the knowledge they gain once they develop advanced centrifuges.
What they're saying: In response to Axios' reporting, a State Department spokesperson said: "We have made clear that Iran's continued nuclear escalations are unconstructive and inconsistent with its stated goal of returning to mutual compliance with the JCPOA." - The spokesperson insisted Iran's nuclear escalations "will not provide Iran any negotiating leverage as we return to talks."
Go deeper: "Scoop: Iran preparing to enrich weapons-grade uranium, Israel warns U.S." Keep reading. |     | | | | | | 2. First look: Right targets Biden pick |  | | | A screenshot from an ad targeting Dale Ho. Courtesy: Judicial Crisis Network | | | | A conservative group is targeting Dale Ho, President Biden's judicial nominee to serve on the Southern District Court of New York, with a six-figure ad buy — launching the first TV campaign against a Biden court pick, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. Why it matters: The Supreme Court is set to hear a Mississippi abortion law case on Wednesday, and conservatives and progressives are bracing for the political fallout from additional legal showdowns, as well as a battle over the president's effort to fill some 70 vacancies throughout the federal judiciary. - The more than $300,000 cable and digital buy against Ho, director of the American Civil Liberties Union voting rights project, accuses him of being "a career puppet for left-wing, dark-money groups." He was nominated in September and is awaiting a Senate committee hearing, potentially as early as this week.
- The ad is from the Judicial Crisis Network, which also relies on so-called "dark money."
- The group spent $10 million to get now-Justice Amy Coney Barrett confirmed to the Supreme Court, and its spending now is an indication conservatives are willing to spend big to try to stop — or, at least, slow — Biden's court picks.
The big picture: During Biden's first 10 months in office, the Senate has confirmed 28 of his district and appellate court judges, with another 36 awaiting a final vote, according to a scorecard from Demand Justice, a progressive group focused on the judiciary. - Conservatives spent most of their energy during 2021 focusing on Biden's Department of Justice picks, launching unsuccessful campaigns against Vanita Gupta for associate attorney general and Kristen Clarke to lead the civil rights division.
- Now, they're starting to focus on judges, calling attention to Ho's history of advocating for progressive causes.
- They have an eye on a potential Supreme Court vacancy in 2022.
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | 3. McCarthy already dancing for gavel |  | | | House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy stands with his Republican colleagues outside the House on Nov. 17. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images | | | | Right-wing elements in the Republican Party are complicating House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's attempts to become the next speaker of the House should the GOP take back the majority in 2022, Axios' Alayna Treene and Andrew Solender report. Why it matters: While McCarthy has worked carefully to build trust among conservatives, who tanked his chances at clinching the speakership in 2015, they're still circling ahead of the next Speaker vote in January 2023. - These members have made clear they're willing to test the extent of their power by dangling their speakership vote as leverage against McCarthy.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who's become a vocal conservative despite being a congressional freshman, suggested over the Thanksgiving recess McCarthy lacks the votes to obtain the gavel. - Members are also beginning to quietly inquire about other leadership positions, and some of the positioning is already beginning to take shape behind the scenes.
- If McCarthy becomes speaker, it's expected — but not guaranteed — that House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) will remain his No. 2 and become House majority leader.
- However, it's still unclear who'd replace Scalise as whip, or who'd become conference chair and serve as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Who to watch: Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the current NRCC chair, will likely want to be rewarded with a significant position if the party fares well in the midterms, Axios is told. - Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), current chairwoman of the House GOP conference, may want a newer leadership role, such as majority whip or chair of the House Education and Labor Committee.
- Reps. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), chief deputy whip, and Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), the top Republican on the House Financial Services Committee and former deputy whip, also will likely want leadership gigs.
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | A message from United to Safeguard America from Illegal Trade (USA-IT) | | Fighting illegal trade in America | | |  | | | | Illegal trade is a $464-billion-a-year business, and it's growing. What you need to know: Criminals get rich from illegal trade by robbing revenues used to provide essential services to Americans. Working together, we can fight back. See how. | | | | | | 4. Charted: Hill sprint |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | Congressional leaders have been pushing off vital action for months — and a lot of it will catch up with them in December, which begins Wednesday, Alayna also writes. Driving the news: Funding for the federal government is set to expire at midnight on Friday. There are also consequential deadlines related to the debt limit, Biden's agenda and annual actions like voting on the National Defense Authorization Act. Key dates: 1. Midnight on Dec. 3: Government funding runs out. - As of now, members don't anticipate a government shutdown that could affect everything from access to national parks to delivery of Social Security checks.
2. Dec. 15: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's deadline to raise the debt limit. - The intense rhetoric we saw leading up to the initial Oct. 18 default date has died down considerably this time — in part due to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell previously blinking on the issue — but there's still no clear path forward on raising the ceiling.
3. Dec. 31: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's deadline to pass Biden's Build Back Better plan. - Schumer said today that meetings with the Senate parliamentarian over shepherding the package through the budget reconciliation process are ongoing. Once that work is completed, he'll bring Build Back Better legislation to the Senate floor, he said.
4. Dec. 31: Congress deadline to pass the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). - The Senate failed to reach an agreement on this must-pass, $768 billion bill before its Thanksgiving recess, and they faced another speed bump tonight as Republicans blocked efforts to shut down debate on the bill, arguing they need to spend more time negotiating.
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | 5. Pic du jour: Holiday classroom |  | | | Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images | | | | First lady Jill Biden read her book, "Don't Forget, God Bless Our Troops," to a second-grade class from Malcolm Elementary School in Waldorf, Maryland. - The reading came after she unveiled the 2021 White House holiday décor with the theme, "Gifts From the Heart."
| | | | | | | | A message from United to Safeguard America from Illegal Trade (USA-IT) | | Fighting illegal trade in America | | |  | | | | Illegal trade is a $464-billion-a-year business, and it's growing. What you need to know: Criminals get rich from illegal trade by robbing revenues used to provide essential services to Americans. Working together, we can fight back. See how. | | | | 📬 A reminder your family, friends and colleagues can subscribe to Sneak or any of Axios' other free local and national newsletters through this link. |  | | It'll help you deliver employee communications more effectively. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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