| | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | Welcome to Corridors. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. This week, the contrarian view from an overheated bubble of election speculation. Plus, prominent Conservatives line up behind embattled Green leader Annamie Paul. And Mark Carney is out — for now. | | | RISKY BUSINESS — Ask a seasoned pol about the chances of an election this fall, and the word inevitable is on the tip of their tongue (as Corridors explored earlier this summer). But campaign vets slap a majority-sized asterisk on any talk of a vote. Every election call, says anyone who's run the gauntlet, risks everything. Only one in four Canadians told pollster Nik Nanos they want a fall election. Thirty-seven percent were downright upset about the prospect. Food for thought if you're a prime minister who wants a second majority government. Let's run through some of the risks, which may even convince you an election isn't in the offing: Change is the rule: The horse-race polls haven't shifted considerably in several months. But Mike Moffatt, an economist who spent part of the Trudeau era as Canada's chief innovation fellow, reminds his followers that most recent elections weren't boring. A campaign with no meaningful movement in the polls — say, 2008 — is the exception. Stephen Harper came back to beat Paul Martin in 2006. Jack Layton defied the odds in 2011. And the Liberals vaulted from bronze medal to the top of the podium in 2015. The polls are a bit shaky: Sure, the Liberals have topped every snapshot since February 2020, when a pre-pandemic Angus Reid poll had the Tories up by eight points. But that shop's most recent poll has Trudeau up by just two points nationally and four in Ontario, and the last two Leger polls show tightening races. A majority is not guaranteed: Even small variations in national polling shifts matter. Philippe J. Fournier, the brains behind 338Canada, maintains a voting simulator based on different results. The latest Angus Reid numbers give the Liberals a slim minority: 144 seats to 130 for the Tories, 40 for the NDP, 23 for the Bloc and a single seat for the Greens. (Try out the simulator yourself .) Where in Canada are you watching most closely? Flip an email to Nick. Fear of a fourth wave: Canadians might be feeling more optimistic as vaccinations surge, their favorite restaurants reopen, and they can gather with friends and family. But a senior NDP source stated the obvious about a prospective spike in Covid cases along the lines of the U.K. experience this summer. The quote: "If you are the sitting government that calls an election, and you don't need to, and you wind up with a fourth wave ... that's a bad scenario," said the source. "Especially with an election that's going to look very opportunistic." Most insiders still wager the country is headed for the polls. But none say it's a slam dunk. RETIREMENT SAVINGS: Last month, Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Carolyn Bennett slagged Jody Wilson-Raybould with an offensive text message that Wilson-Raybould called "racist" and "misogynist." Bennett's missive appeared to imply that JWR, who was elected five years and nine months ago, was concerned that a summer election would mean she'd miss out on a parliamentary pension that kicks in after six years of service. No one gets into politics for the pension, but Bennett's unseemly text did confirm they're talked about behind the scenes — especially by MPs who are edging closer to qualifying for payments as early as their 55th birthday. The Class of 2015 is eligible at the strike of midnight on Oct. 21. The generous pension plan has for years preoccupied journalists (see: 2010, 2012, 2019, 2021). Its roots are arguably unimpeachable: MPs left stable livelihoods for the frenetic world of elected politics, and they should be rewarded for their service. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation crunched the numbers after the 2019 election. Orange Wave New Democrats who'd served 8.5 years netted annual pensions worth more than C$40,000. — All of which to say: 92 Liberal MPs who were first elected in 2015 have more to lose than a seat — not to mention 50 MPs from other parties. NOMINATION CENSUS: POLITICO's Zi-Ann Lum is keeping count as Canada's major parties secure their candidates. Here are the standings, with any change since last week in parentheses. Conservative: 247 (+5)
Liberal: 203 (+12)
NDP: 103 (+6)
Bloc Québécois: 40 (+3)
Greens: 55 (+10) Tweeting about election speculation? Nick's DMs are open. | | | Who's up: Marco Mendicino The immigration minister was the luckiest Liberal in the land last week when he broke the news on a Toronto Blue Jays broadcast that Canada's only major league baseball team scored a national interest exemption to return home on July 30 after playing a season and a half in Buffalo and Dunedin, Florida. Critics will dismiss Mendicino as an opportunist who timed his decision to a potential election. But do Jays fans want to know the terrifying truth? Or do they just want to watch their guys sock some dingers? Who's down: Alan Lagimodiere Manitoba's minister of Indigenous reconciliation and northern relations, a Métis man, was less than an hour into his new job before he told reporters that residential school operators "thought they were doing the right thing." NDP leader Wab Kinew, the son of a survivor, crashed the presser and dressed down Lagimodiere. The portfolio needed a new minister when Eileen Clarke resigned after Premier Brian Pallister made his own controversial remarks about reconciliation. Lagimodiere apologized, but couldn't control the fallout. | | | | 
A social share from Green Leader Annamie Paul on Tuesday earned some noteworthy likes and endorsements. | Twitter | SCREENSHOT OF THE WEEK — Green leader Annamie Paul is still mired in the aftermath of party infighting. Elizabeth May finally pledged support for her successor after a prolonged silence, but it's unclear how united the party is after weeks of strife. Paul tweeted Tuesday that the feds were excluding her from a summit on antisemitism to be held today. She found support from an influential Conservative and a certain former Liberal who has a bone to pick with the prime minister. Rona Ambrose is also on Team Annamie. BIDEN BILAT — Trudeau formally announced the date that vaccinated non-Canadians can travel to Canada. Americans are free to cross on Aug. 9, and the rest of the world can join a month later. The opening won't yet go both ways. As POLITICO's Andy Blatchford reports, U.S. President Joe Biden's press secretary, Jen Psaki, said she "wouldn't look at it through a reciprocal intention." But even if it's a one-way thing, surely Biden could fly north for his first official trip as soon as Aug. 9. Maybe in the leadup to, say, an election call? OTTAWA CENTRE OF ATTENTION — So much for the breathless 24/7 focus on Mark Carney's electoral prospects. The central banker was widely rumored to be prepping for an Ottawa-area run, and his name was tossed about in Catherine McKenna's riding, Karen McCrimmon's seat in Kanata-Carleton and even David McGuinty's perch in the south end. (Almost anywhere but Ottawa-Vanier, where he actually lives.) But Carney won't run this time, he says, because he's focusing on the U.N. climate conference that runs Oct. 31 until Nov. 12. — Save the date: Carney did reassert his support for Trudeau's Liberals "and will do everything [he] can to help" them win. He also didn't rule out a future run . So if Canada hasn't voted by Nov. 13, when Carney's schedule might be a bit clearer, speculators can restart the clock on the central banker's political debut. | 
Former MPP Yasir Naqvi is ready to roll in Ottawa-Centre, the riding that will be vacated soonish by Catherine McKenna. | Yasir Naqvi on LinkedIn | — Last man standing: Back in the riding of Ottawa Centre, where one hardened politico quipped to Corridors that politics is local, provincial, national and international, it'll be hard for anybody to beat Yasir Naqvi. The former MPP and attorney general, who represented the same riding at Queen's Park for 11 years, signaled his intent to enter the race for the federal Ottawa Centre nomination a few days after McKenna's presser. He hasn't filed his nomination papers (the party hasn't made them available), and he's game for an open contest. But any non-Liberals who hoped for a battle between a member of the global elite and a popular local rep will have to wait. (The NDP was surely savoring a showdown between Carney and their local candidate, CUPE economist Angella MacEwen.) — Related reading from iPolitics: Liberal party appoints regional election-campaign directors MILLSTONE TO MILESTONE — Liberal Twitter recently unearthed a November 2020 tweet from Don Davies, the NDP's health critic. Davies was asking reasonable questions of the Liberals, who had yet to release vaccine distribution plans or contracts. The theme of the dunk-a-thon: "This didn't age well." After all, the government did recover from a sluggish start to deliver on its vaccine promises. Canada did this week pass the U.S. in global rankings, where hesitancy is a bigger problem. And 72 percent of the country is happy with the Liberal rollout. — Big question marks: One of the turning points in Canada's mass vaccination campaign was a decision to mix vaccines. Many Canadians received a combination of doses — Pfizer then Moderna, for example. But some cruise lines have said they won't accept passengers who mixed doses. Millions of Canadians received the AstraZeneca shot, which for a time barred them from a Bruce Springsteen show on Broadway (if they could get across the border). A frenetic six-month campaign to inoculate an entire nation might have been a world-leading achievement, but Canadians are now confronting a helter skelter mishmash of rules and regulations at home and around the world. Policymakers will have to respond with clarity. | | | This week, Corridors asks: As more Canadians are vaccinated, and we slowly reacquaint ourselves with real-life interaction, how are MPs engaging with their constituents? | 
Calgary MP Jag Sahota joins Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole at the Calgary Stampede. | Jag Sahota/Handout | Jag Sahota, Conservative MP for Calgary Skyview, Alta. Initially, it was a lot of phone calls, then Zoom. But now the restrictions are being lifted to a great extent, I'm able to meet constituents in-person. People are really eager to be out and about. I had a Stampede Breakfast last week, and I had about 700 people show up. So engagement with constituents evolved and changed with the times. Door knocking happens in the evenings. You gauge your audience. I ask people if they're comfortable shaking hands. Sometimes, people will invite me into their house. I put my mask on and remain in their entryway. I also carry hand sanitizer. We're looking at our constituents and what they're comfortable with. Taylor Bachrach, NDP MP in Skeena-Bulkley Valley, B.C. This riding is gigantic. It's the size of Poland, and comprises the top left corner of British Columbia. In the past, the majority of outreach was done in-person. Often, you'd travel an entire day to spend half a day in a community. And that's on top of commuting back and forth to Ottawa. One of the silver linings of Covid has been it expanded our use of these remote communications tools. We had some great success engaging people from all across the region, all at once, which we hadn't really been able to do before. We held town halls on topics like food security and Covid safety and other topics. People have grown fatigued by being online so much, especially as the weather gets better. But those tools, and the fact we all know how to use them now, is something I'm hoping we can retain moving forward. Eric Duncan, Conservative MP for Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry, Ont. I'm noticing a lot of service clubs doing drive-through events. Talking to fairs or festivals who are opening up, they mention two challenges. One is the logistics of putting together an event in a month or two, when normally they'd be planning for the better part of a year. The second thing is their sponsorship levels. They rely on a lot of businesses to help with donations, and some had been impacted by the pandemic. My predecessor, Guy Lauzon, had a perfect spot geographically for a big community picnic. He and his wife hosted it in their backyard every summer. I live in a condo, so I don't think my condo board would appreciate 400 people showing up. But we're doing a series of neighborhood barbecues. That allows us to keep numbers lower and safer. Matthew Green, NDP MP in Hamilton Centre, Ont. We are aware that there's still a population that's not vaccinated. There's still young children who are not vaccinated. There's a Delta variant, and probably some unknown variants out there. When we moved into this new office, we didn't have a chance to have an office opening. We're now looking to late August or early September to do a community barbecue at a local park, to get a chance to meet some of the neighbors. People are coming out of deep isolation, and there's going to have to be a reestablishment of what community looks like outside of social media and Zoom meetings. I still can't see myself canvassing door to door. I don't know that that would be seen as acceptable in southern Ontario. There's even a weirdness around shaking hands, and being too close to people without a mask. | | | Corridors is a new weekly newsletter for MPs, lobbyists, executives, activists and any readers who are interested in what's going on around Parliament Hill. Every Wednesday we will look at the people pulling the levers of power in Ottawa and the questions that are influencing decisions on Parliament Hill and in the provinces. Join the conversation! You can email us at sallan@politico.com, ablatchford@politico.com, zlum@politico.com, ntaylor-vaisey@politico.com. | | | In an interview with Global News, Trudeau said he wasn't bothered that Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan never brought up unnamed allegations of inappropriate behaviour against then-chief of the defense staff Jonathan Vance. The "Future of Work" is already here. But as POLITICO's Ben White and Eleanor Mueller report, it's a deeply confused picture. The world's stateless peoples are more vulnerable than ever, writes Terry Glavin in Maclean's. Monday's edition of the Globe's Decibel podcast features parliamentary reporter Janice Dickson on the fate of Afghan nationals who once worked for the Canadian government. | | | — Trudeau to ease border rules Aug. 9 for fully vaccinated Americans. Now it's Biden's move
— Canada invites input on care of energy workers while en route to net-zero
— White House announces ransomware task force — and hacking back is one option
— Biden wanted a climate alliance with Europe. He's getting a fight.
— 'China senses weakness': Pence attacks Biden's tack toward Beijing in major speech
— Democrats launch carbon border fee bill to penalize foreign polluters | | | Spotted: Conservative MP Tim Uppal stumping for Nadeem Akbar in Milton — a key riding in the exurban 905. … Ben Harper, son of Stephen, celebrating the "best summer ever" at an Alberta gun range. … Erin O'Toole admitting he "was kind of a smart-ass kid" during an interview in which he said people consistently underestimate him. … Mark Carney chatting with Boris Johnson at 10 Downing. Want to connect on LinkedIn? Find Nick here. Birthdays: Happy 65th to the happily retired Larry Miller, formerly the Tory MP for Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound. Legendary filmmaker Norman Jewison is 95 today. HBDs to independent senators Marilou McPhedran, who's 70 tomorrow. Former P.E.I. premier Catherine Callbeck, a senator herself for 17 years, turns 82 on Sunday. A parliamentary quartet celebrates another spin around the sun on the 27th: Conservative MP Peter Kent, who isn't running again, is 78. Colin Fraser, a one-term Liberal who lost West Nova to Chris d'Entremont in 2019, is 43. Liberal Sen. Claudette Tardif is 74, which means she's got a year left in the Red Chamber. And Carolyn Stewart Olsen, a Tory senator since 2009 who served a long stint as Stephen Harper's spokeswoman, officially hits the retirement age. Anniversaries: Nancy Jamieson and Bruce Anderson celebrated their 30th anniversary on Tuesday. "When I first saw this brainy beauty on the other side of the aisle, way back when, she was the smartest, funniest, most passionate, & coolest woman in politics. She's still all of those things and more," he shared on Twitter. "Feeling awfully blessed," she tweeted in reply. Media moves: Alyssa Reid, Erika Morris and Jada Wallace are the recipients of this year's Media Girlfriends scholarships … The magazine previously known as the Ryerson Review of Journalism will now be known as the Review of Journalism. Movers and shakers: Devin McCarthy is now senior VP and federal practice group lead at Sussex Strategy Group. … Trevin Stratton is joining Deloitte to lead its economic advisory practice. "To work together with businesses and government, when it comes to economic modelling, policy making; that is right in my wheelhouse," he told the Ottawa Business Journal. Farewells: New Brunswick Sen. Judith Keating is being remembered as a tireless defender of language equity. The constitutional expert, 64 when she died, was the first woman to serve as deputy minister of justice and attorney general of New Brunswick. Readers in Edmonton and journalists across the country are celebrating the life of Chris Zdeb. "Rare to get that mix of sharpness and kindness and talent," Maclean's Jason Markusoff shared about his former colleague. David Blair, who spent decades with CBC Radio, died on July 12. He was 56. | | | Last week first: The judge who'd come to be known by Inuit as Ekoktoegee — "the one who listens to things" — was also the only Liberal MP ever to represent Peace River in Alberta. His name was John Howard Sissons. Kudos to George Schoenhofer and Arthur Drache. This week's question: The Senate chamber is famously awash in red, while the House of Commons chamber favours green. What is the definitive origin story of the Commons' color? Send your answer to Corridors@politico.com With thanks to Editor Sue Allan and POLITICO's Zi-Ann Lum. | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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