| Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair 03/01/21 2021-03-01 Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market is moving upwards from the level of 1.2073 (the closing of the Friday daily candle), and can test the resistance level of 1.2172 (the blue bold line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move up with a target of 1.2234 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis – up - Fibonacci Levels – up - Volumes – up - Candlestick Analysis – up - Trend Analysis-up - Bollinger Bands – up - Weekly Schedule - up General Conclusion:: Today, the price is moving upwards from the level of 1.2073 (the closing of the Friday daily candle), and can test the resistance level of 1.2172 (the blue bold line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to move up with a target of 1.2234 – the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.2176 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may continue to move down to the pullback level of 50.0% - 1.1975 (the red dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it will continue to move up with a target of 1.2102 – a pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). EUR/USD. March 1. COT report. Traders' attention has shifted to geopolitics. The major players are not ready for the sales of the euro currency. 2021-03-01 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On February 26, the EUR/USD pair continued the fall of quotes. The closing of the pair's exchange rate under the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2104) allows us to count on a further drop in quotes in the direction of the next Fibo level of 23.6% (1.2046). The fall of the European currency and the growth of the dollar have been going on for two days. The reasons for such strange behavior of traders will be discussed below. First, I would like to point out that the markets have been behaving very strangely lately. Perhaps these are the consequences of the crisis and pandemic, perhaps traders have not yet come to their senses after an extra difficult year, perhaps these are the consequences of trillions of dollars that were supposed to stimulate the economy, as conceived by the Fed and the US Congress. However, the movements in the currency and stock markets in recent months are quite strange, not to mention the cryptocurrency market, in which there are outright frenzies. Secondly, the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has recently started to rise. And this is a factor that can support the demand for the US dollar since, to buy bonds, you need to have dollars on hand, not euros or other money. Third, another escalation of the conflict in the Middle East increases the demand for the dollar. However, all these factors are short-term, although extremely important and undoubtedly affect the mood of traders. That is, so far, the dollar has grown strongly over the past two trading days, however, it is unlikely that the same strong movement will continue for at least a few more days. The fall in the pair's quotes was almost impossible to predict, as was the attack of the US Air Force on Syrian targets. As the growth of Treasury yields. Thus, traders should understand that the exchange rate of any currency pair can be influenced by many factors. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of returning to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and some growth in the direction of the level of 1.2223. Closing the pair's rate under the 161.8% Fibo level will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed the third breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor. If this time the breakdown is not false, then the fall in quotes will continue in the direction of the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On February 26, there were no interesting events in the European Union, and the statistics from the United States were overshadowed by other more important events. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (09:00 GMT). US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector(14:45 GMT). US - ISM manufacturing index (15:00 GMT). EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (16:10 GMT). On March 1, the European Union will host a speech by Christine Lagarde. Also on this day, the indices of business activity in the areas of production in the US and the EU will be released. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the third week in a row, it turns out to be very calm. There are no major changes in the mood of traders. The most important category of Non-commercial traders opened 6.5 thousand long and 6.6 thousand short contracts. The "Commercial" category of traders opened 15 thousand long and 17 thousand short contracts. That is, in general, during the reporting week, the major players made purchases and sales in equal proportions. In the long term, the euro continues to show growth, and the number of long contracts focused on the hands of speculators exceeds the number of short contracts by three times. Therefore, to break the upward trend, it is necessary that speculators massively open sales, which is not yet observed. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: Sales of the pair are recommended when closing quotes under the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.2046) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1952. You can even try to open sales right now with a protective order above the level of 38.2% (1.2104). New purchases of the pair are recommended when closing quotes above the level of 1.2104 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 1. COT reports. Euro bulls expect to return resistance at 1.2093 2021-03-01 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: The euro continued to decline last Friday, although the sell signal, which was formed in the first half of the day, turned out to be unprofitable. The profit was brought by purchases. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down the trades. You can see how after surpassing support at 1.2140, the level is tested in reverse. This scenario creates a good signal to open short positions, which was not realized, as the bulls are quickly bringing the pair back to the 1.2140 level. Also, in my forecast, I recommended buying the euro on a rebound from the low of 1.2093. This signal worked out 100%, because as soon as this level was reached, the pair turned around and quickly went back to the 1.2140 level - which is about 50 points of profit. 
This morning buyers will focus on regaining control of resistance at 1.2093, as this alone can set aside the bearish trend that we have seen since the middle of last week. Good data on manufacturing activity in the eurozone countries and inflation in Germany should help the bulls to cope with this task. The test of this level from top to bottom creates a good buy signal in hopes to return to resistance of 1.2140, where I recommend taking profit. A more distant level will be the area of 1.2190. In case the euro falls, divergence may form on the MACD indicator, so I recommend opening long positions immediately to a rebound from the low of 1.2037 (similar to the long positions from last Friday), which should lead to an upward correction of the pair by 25-30 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: The bears are trying to get the market under their control and until the moment when trade is carried out below the resistance of 1.2093, the pressure on the euro will remain. In case of a false breakout scenario and an unsuccessful attempt by the bulls to regain this level, it is possible to open new short positions during the bear market in anticipation of reaching the low of 1.2037, where I recommend taking profits. At this point, a divergence may be formed on the MACD indicator, indicating the end of the bearish trend. Under the scenario of good fundamental data for the eurozone countries, of which a large amount is expected this morning, the pair may move above the resistance of 1.2093. In this case, it is best to open short positions immediately on a rebound from the resistance of 1.2140, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. Moving averages, playing on the side of the euro sellers, also pass there. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 16 revealed that there were no significant changes in the positions of large players, which once again indicates the temporary equilibrium of the pair before a new wave of growth this spring. The major decline from the previous week was won back, and this confirms the theory that the demand for the US dollar continues to decrease among investors. Therefore, a more correct approach to the market is to buy the euro for the medium term. A good factor for the euro would be the moment when European countries begin to actively roll back quarantine and isolation measures, and the services sector will start working in full force again, which will lead to an improved economic outlook and also strengthen the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 220,943 to 222,895, while short non-commercial positions rose from 80,721 to 82,899. As a result, the total non-commercial net position slightly narrowed after rising to 140,006 from 140,222. The weekly closing price was 1.2132 against 1.2052 a week earlier, which indicates the presence of buyers in the market. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the bears remain in control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.2095 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.2055. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD. March 1. COT report. How will traders react to the Congressional approval of the "bailout plan"? 2021-03-01 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3895), a rebound from it, and an increase to the level of 1.3988. Thus, the rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the level of 1.3895. Closing the pair's rate above the level of 1.3988 will work in favor of continuing the growth of the British dollar in the direction of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.4063). The calendar of UK economic events on Friday was empty. In America, there were only a few minor reports, however, there were a lot of other events in the last few days. I have already written about the fact that the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds is growing, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are also growing. Thus, these factors increase the demand for the US dollar. It should also be noted that on Saturday, the lower house of the US Congress voted in favor of Joe Biden's bill to provide the US economy with assistance for another $ 1.9 trillion. Now the Senate must vote for this bill, in which the vote split between Republicans and Democrats is 50/50. However, the decisive vote belongs to Kamala Harris, who belongs to the democratic wing of the government. Thus, there is no doubt that almost $ 2 trillion more will be allocated to US businesses and households. This factor, from my point of view, can lower the dollar exchange rate. And in general, we have a fairly large number of factors that can somehow influence the dollar. In the near future, trading may be very turbulent. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a certain fall, but the resulting bullish divergence in the CCI indicator allows traders to count on a reversal in favor of the British dollar and a resumption of growth in the direction of the level of 1.4126. This divergence is against the main movement, so the growth may be extremely small. The upward trend line still characterizes the current mood of traders as "bullish". GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes closed under the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084), which now allows us to count on a slight drop in quotes, but more important now are the data from the hourly and 4-hour charts. GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Friday, the UK calendar was completely blank, and statistics from the US were not the most important. Other more important factors affected the pair and the mood of traders much more strongly. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: UK - manufacturing PMI (09:30 GMT). US - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (14:45 GMT). US - ISM manufacturing index (15:00 GMT). On March 1, the UK and the US will release indices of business activity in the areas of production, but it seems that more attention will be focused on geopolitical issues, data on the yield of treasuries, and the bill of Joe Biden. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from February 23 on the British pound was extremely eloquent. During the last reporting week, speculators opened 7243 new long contracts and closed almost 2 thousand short contracts. Thus, their mood has become sharply more "bullish", which fully coincides with what is happening in the market for the pound/dollar pair. Only in the following days (which were not included in the report) did the fall of the British pound begin, so the next COT report will be of interest. So far, the overall picture remains in favor of the British, as the category of "Non-commercial" traders continues to increase long contracts. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It is recommended to buy the British dollar on Monday in case of closing above the level of 1.3988 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.4063. It was recommended to sell the pound sterling when the quotes were fixed under the upward trend corridor on the hourly chart with the targets of 1.3895 and 1.3820. The first goal is achieved. New sales – when rebounding from the level of 1.3988 with targets of 1.3895 and 1.3820. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 1. COT reports. Bulls start buying the pound around the 39th figure 2021-03-01 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: It was quite difficult to trade the pound last Friday. Let's take a look at the 5 minute chart and talk about what happened. At the very first test of support at 1.3908, a false breakout was formed, which led to a sharp rise in the pound. However, it was a rather dubious pleasure to open long positions after that, as the pair bounced off this level quite significantly. The next test has already led to a breakdown of this range, from which it was not possible to wait for new intelligible signals. It was possible to sell in the afternoon after resistance was updated at 1.3983, but even there the situation was exactly the same as with long positions from the 1.3908 low. The very rapid fall of the pound after the 1.3983 test gave a bad enough price to open short positions. Therefore, I missed all the signals. 
A report on the manufacturing sector in the UK will be released this morning, which should be in good order, which may support the upward correction of the pound, which was outlined in the Asian session. An important task for buyers will be to break out and settle above the resistance level of 1.3994, where the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the pound sellers. A downward test of this level creates a signal to buy GBP/USD in hopes to return to resistance at 1.4062, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be resistance at 1.4115. In case the pound falls in the first half of the day, and this can happen at any time, since the bears are still in full control of the market, it is best to wait for a false breakout to form in the support area of 1.3921 and open long positions from there. If buyers are not active in the 1.3921 area, I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the 1.3840 low, from which you can buy the pound immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The next buy level is seen in the area of 1.3775. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The initial task of the bears is to regain control of support at 1.3921, which was not done last Friday. Consolidating below this level and testing it on the reverse side generates a signal to open short positions in hopes to pull down the pair to the area of 1.3840, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be the area of 1.3775. Forming a false breakout in the area of 1.3994, after the release of a number of fundamental data on the British economy, creates a fairly good signal to sell the pound. If bears are not active there, I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound from a high of 1.4062 counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. 
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 16 revealed a reduction in both long and short commercial positions. Despite this, the bulls break through to new highs each time, taking advantage of the good news on vaccinations in the UK and good fundamentals, indicating economic growth even during the lockdown. The news that the UK will resort to easing quarantine measures in March will further fuel investors' interest in the pound. Long non-commercial positions fell from 60,513 to 60,269. At the same time, short non-commercial positions fell from 39,395 to 38,102, which kept the market bullish. As a result, the non-commercial net position rose to 22,167 from 21,118 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3914 against 1.3745. Any downward corrections with an immediate buy-back of the pound once again proves the presence of large players in the market. Constant updates of local highs and consolidation on them will contribute to the bullish trend that we have been observing since the beginning of February this year. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a succeeding decline for the pound in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.3994 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the area of 1.3900. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 1. Euro declines ahead of US data. 2021-03-01 
Incidents have already dropped quite significantly in the United States. Unfortunately, the same can not be said in Europe, as new cases have gone back to around 19,000, especially in France. Meanwhile, everything is generally fine in Britain, but in Italy and the Czech Republic, there is a dangerously high rate of new cases. In any case, vaccinations are ongoing. In fact, the pandemic is now expected to stop in US and UK. But in other countries, not much progress is expected, especially amid a rather slow rate of vaccination. 
EUR/USD Euro is trading downwards. Open short positions from 1.2108 to 1.2153. Open long positions at 1.2245. Indicator analysis. Daily review of the GBP/USD currency pair for March 1, 2021 2021-03-01 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market from the level of 1.3887 (closing of last Friday's daily candle) may start moving up with the target of 1.4217 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). When testing this line, the upward movement may continue with the target of 1.4377 - upper fractal (yellow dotted line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- Volumes - up;
- Candlestick analysis - up;
- Trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - up;
- Weekly chart - up.
General conclusion: Today, from the level of 1.3887 (closing of last Friday's daily candle), the price may start moving up with the target of 1.4217 – the historical resistance level (the blue dotted line). When testing this line, the upward movement may continue with the target of 1.4377 - upper fractal (yellow dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.3887 (closing of last Friday's daily candle), the price may start moving up with the target of 1.3999 – 5 EMA (red thin line). When testing this line, a downward movement is possible, with the target of 1.3815 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 1, 2021 2021-03-01 Last Friday, the US dollar strengthened against its competitors, which positively affected the volume of short positions. In terms of economic calendar, Europe, Britain and the United States did not publish any particular important data. So, market participants focused on technical analysis, which is quite justified in the context of dollar's growing positions. Taking into account the dollar index (DXY), it shows that the index has been actively declining since the month of February started, which hinted that the US dollar is under pressure from sellers. On February 25, the index reached its lowest level since the beginning of January, where there was a change in trading interest. The EUR/USD pair continues to decline since last Thursday, after market participants reached the resistance level of 1.2230/1.2250. The scale of the euro's weakening is about 170 points, returning the quote to the area of 1.2050/1.2080. After the prolonged movement at the high of the mid-term trend, the GBP/USD pair still managed to find variable resistance in the area of 1.4180/1.4220, where there was a stop, followed by a price rebound of more than 300 points. 
Trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 1, 2021 Today, UK's lending market data will be published, which is not expected to be good. Here, the volume of mortgage lending in January is expected to remain at 5.59 billion pounds, while the number of approved mortgage loans should fall by 96 thousand against 103.38 thousand a period earlier. At the same time, the Bank of England's consumer lending in January is expected to decline by $ 1,900 billion. 9:30 Universal time - UK lending market This is not the best data, so we expect the pound to further decline. On the other hand, Europe is not expected to release its statistical data. The US, in turn, will publish its ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index (PMI), with a forecasted growth from 58.7 to 58.8. 15:00 Universal time - US Manufacturing PMI Looking at the current trading chart of EUR/USD, the quote is seen to have slowed down the decline in the 1.2050/1.2080 area, which repeats the natural basis of the support from December 9, January 18 and 27. If the price holds below the level of 1.2050, a downward move may occur towards the main level of 1.2000-1.1950. Otherwise, we should expect a rebound, as it has happened repeatedly in history. 
As for the trading chart of GBP/USD, we saw that the quote maintains its position in the area of the psychological level of 1.3950/1.4000/1.4050, which may result in an amplitude fluctuation within the specified limits. There will be a trading decision based on price fixing points: further decline will be considered if the quote is kept below last Friday's local low (1.3887), in the direction of 1.3750. Alternatively, an upward development will be considered if the price is kept above the level of 1.4050, with the prospect of moving to the 1.4100-1.4150 range. 
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 1, 2021 2021-03-01 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of 1.2062 and is trying to bounce higher above the intraday technical resistance located at the level of 1.2091. Despite the oversold market conditions, to bulls are not so much active yet, so the up move is clearly corrective in nature. Moreover, the momentum is still weak and negative, which suggest the down cycle has now been completed yet. The next target for bears is the level of 1.2023 - 1.2018. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the lows from 4th of February located at the level of 1.1953. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2341 WR2 - 1.2290 WR1 - 1.2158 Weekly Pivot - 1.2111 WS1 - 1.1978 WS2 - 1.1931 WS3 - 1.1796 Trading Recommendations: Any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1953 is broken, because since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2175 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 1, 2021 2021-03-01 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has fallen out of the main ascending channel and made a new local low at the level of 1.3889. Since then the bulls tried to bounce, but so far no avail, only the level of 1.3982 had been hit. Moreover, there is the price overbalance at the level of 1.3988, so the bearish pressure should be more intense soon. The level of 1.3965 will now act as a intraday technical support. Only a sustained bounce above the level of 1.4080 would confirm the correction is terminated and the up trend is resumed. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4421 WR2 - 1.4316 WR1 - 1.4091 Weekly Pivot - 1.3990 WS1 - 1.3751 WS2 - 1.3640 WS3 - 1.3428 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Did the correction already start? (EUR/USD and GBP/USD review on March 1) 2021-03-01 The euro and the pound's correctional movement, which began last Thursday, continued throughout Friday. Oddly enough, such movement during the previous week was quite logical. It is clear that Europe's macroeconomic data were not pleasing. 
Despite the fact that statistics were not expected to be released in the Eurozone, several data were still published in France and Spain, which are the second and fourth economies of the EU. In particular, Spain released its preliminary inflation data, which declined to 0.0% instead of expected growth from 0.5% to 0.6%. The situation is similar in France, where inflation was supposed to rise from 0.5% to 0.6%, but slowed down to 0.4%. It should be noted that the whole Eurozone's inflation data will be published on Tuesday, which is expected to rise. However, there are fears that inflation growth in Europe is unstable due to the data released in France and Spain. This means that there are still risks of returning to deflation. In addition, the final data on French GDP for the fourth quarter confirmed the acceleration of the economic downturn from -3.7% to -4.9%. Overall, the situation is not that far from ideal. It's only getting worse. GDP growth rates (France): 
There was hardly a difference in the nature of the UK's statistics, where the rate of decline in car production surged from -2.3% to -27.3%. This corresponds to the general decline in industrial production in the United Kingdom. Car Manufacturing (UK): 
Today will be the publication of the final data on the PMI in the manufacturing sector, which is expected to coincide with preliminary estimates. So, they will not greatly affect investors' mood. Here, the index in the Euro area is expected to rise from 54.8 to 57.7. And judging by the largest countries there, then Germany's index is forecasted to grow from 57.1 to 60.6, France from 51.6 to 55.0, Italy from 55.1 to 56.2, and Spain from 49.3 to 51.5. However, the market has already incorporated this growth of indices into the Euro's value. Thus, the preliminary inflation data in Germany and Italy are much more interesting. Germany's inflation data may remain at the current level of 1.0%, while Italy has growth potential from 0.4% to 0.5%. However, it should be recalled that similar data for France and Spain were worse than forecasted, so we can assume that this scenario may repeat. It will be enough that inflation will slow down only in Germany, which is the largest economy in the euro area. In this case, we believe that Europe's inflation data tomorrow will be worse than forecasted. And so, there is no need to be optimistic about the Euro currency. Inflation (Germany): 
Similarly in the EU, the United Kingdom is also expected to publish its final PMI data in the manufacturing sector, which is expected to rise from 54.1 to 54.9, coinciding with the preliminary estimate. But still, investors will look at other data. In particular, the lending market data, which somehow does not cause optimism. We expect 97.5 thousand mortgage loans to be approved, against the 103.0 thousand during the previous month. The volume of mortgage lending is also forecasted to decline from 5.6 billion pounds to 5.1 billion pounds. The total volume of consumer lending should be reduced by another 1.7 billion pounds. It should be noted that we are talking about one of the indicators of the state of the real estate market, which is one of the main criteria for the investment attractiveness of the UK. In general, we have disappointing forecasts, which confirms that the pound's entire long-term growth was purely speculative. Consumer lending (UK): 
However, given the fact that the US business activity index in the manufacturing sector is expected to decline from 59.2 to 58.5, we can say that the pound and euro's decline will be limited. The market already considered this during the publication of the preliminary estimate, which means their reaction will be moderate. Manufacturing PMI (United States): 
Euro's decline has been quite massive during the past few days, so do not expect any serious weakening. Moreover, only a number of countries will publish its data, as the decline in inflation in France and Spain has already been taken into account. In this case, the euro is likely to decline to the level of 1.2050. In turn, the pound's situation is slightly different, since it is still greatly overbought, and the UK's published data are quite significant. In this regard, the British currency is expected to decline to the level of 1.3900. Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for March 1, 2021 2021-03-01 
GBP/JPY has corrected to a low of 147.37 in the upper range of our target-area between 146.41 - 147.72. The following test of resistance at 149.17 has been weak, which could indicate a second dip into this correction-area before the next real rally higher. Only a clear break above resistance at 149.30 will shift the focus towards renewed strength towards 150.44 and 155.36 as the next major upside target. R3: 149.88 R2: 149.30 R1: 148.90 Pivot: 148.70 S1: 148.49 S2: 148.20 S3: 147.75 Trading recommendation: We bought GBP again at 149.25 and we have placed our stop at 148.15 Forex forecast 03/01/2021 on EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USDX from Sebastian Seliga 2021-03-01 Let's take a look at the technical picture of EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USDX at the beginning of the trading week. Technical analysis for EUR/USD pair for the week of March 1-5, 2021 2021-03-01 The euro/dollar pair rose last week, but failed to reach the level 1.2274 (blue dotted line) – a pullback level of 85.4%, since the news background prevented it. Thus, the price declined and tested the support line of 1.2075 (blue bold line). This week, the price may start rising. Trend analysis The price from the level of 1.2073 (closing of the last weekly candle) may start increasing to the level of 1.2274 (blue dotted line) – a pullback level of 85.4% this week. After reaching this level, it may further move up towards the target of 1.2349 (red dotted line) – the upper fractal. 
Figure 1 (weekly chart) Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up
- Fibonacci levels - up
- Volumes - up
- Candlestick analysis - up
- Trend analysis - up
- Bollinger lines - up
- Monthly chart - up
An upward movement can be concluded based on comprehensive analysis. The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the weekly chart: the price will most likely move in an upward trend, without a lower shadow (Monday - up) and with an upper shadow (Friday - down) in the weekly white candlestick. The first upward target is set at the level of 1.2274 (blue dotted line) – a pullback level of 85.4%. Upon reaching it, the upward movement may extend to the target of 1.2349 (red dotted line) – the upper fractal. Alternatively, the price from the level of 1.2073 (closing of the last weekly candle) may decline to the target of 1.1943 – a pullback level of 23.6% (red dotted line), and then followed by an upturn to the target of 1.2076 (blue bold line) – resistance line. Technical analysis for GBP/USD pair for the week of March 1-5, 2021 2021-03-01 Last week, the pound/dollar pair rose, tested the historical resistance level of 1.4237 (blue dotted line), and declined a lot, slightly not reaching the 5 average EMA of 1.3853 (red thin line). The market closed the weekly candle at 1.3926. This week, the price may continue its growth. Trend analysis This week, the price from the level of 1.3926 (closing of the last weekly candle) is expected to rise to the target of 1.4237 (blue dotted line) – historical resistance level. After testing this level, the upward trend may further extend to a target of 1.4325 (weekly candle from 04/15/2018) – the upper fractal. 
Figure 1 (weekly chart) Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - up
- Fibonacci levels - up
- Volumes - up
- Candlestick analysis - down
- Trend analysis - up
- Bollinger lines - up
- Monthly chart - up
An upward movement can be concluded based on comprehensive analysis. The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the weekly chart: the price will most likely move in the upward trend this week, both without the first lower shadow (Monday - up) and second upper shadow (Friday - up) in the weekly white candlestick. The first upper target is set at the historical resistance level of 1.4237 (blue dotted line). Once this level is tested, the price may further rise to the target of 1.4325 (weekly candle from 04/15/2018) – the upper fractal. As an alternative, the price from the level of 1.3926 (closing of the last weekly candle) may decline to the target of 1.3814 (red dotted line) – 14.6% pullback level. After testing it, the price may resume its upward move to the target of 1.3945 (blue dotted line) – 85.4% pullback level.
Author's today's articles: Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Mihail Makarov  - Vladislav Tukhmenev  Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up." Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Alexandr Davidov  No data Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets.
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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