| | | | | |  | | By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver | Presented by |  | | Editor's Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | Scoop: Goldman to stop political giving — Goldman Sachs is expected to join other Wall Street banks, including JPMorganChase and Citigroup, in taking a pause on corporate political giving to either party following the mob attack on the Capitol last week. Goldman will be bipartisan in its refusal to give corporate cash. But the bank's anger, per a person familiar with the matter, is clearly aimed at President Donald Trump and fellow Republicans who supported his unhinged challenge to clearly legitimate election results. But it's hardly tenable for any of the giant banks, or any big public company, to give to just one political party. So the bans, while temporary, are sweeping. Don't fear, big dollar fundraisers . All the banks and other big companies will get back in the influence peddling business before too long, likely by late spring once President-elect Joe Biden is in office and (God willing) the national political temperature is significantly lower. Per JPM's Peter Scher: "The focus of business leaders, political leaders, civic leaders right now should be on governing and getting help to those who desperately need it most right now. There will be plenty of time for campaigning later." And Citi's Candi Wolff, a Senate and George W. Bush administration veteran, on Friday: "We want you to be assured that we will not support candidates who do not respect the rule of law. We intend to pause our contributions during the quarter as the country goes through the Presidential transition and hopefully emerges from these events stronger and more united." The jobs market is crashing — Per my story on the dismal jobs report showing a decline of 140K in December: "Trump's record will now include a recovered stock market but an enormous net loss of jobs. .. "The December tumble … will give Biden and the Democrats wider leeway to force through trillions of dollars more in stimulus spending — by whatever legislative means available — including significant help for state and local governments. Former CEA Director Jason Furman told me: "The economy went into reverse in December and we are still 11.5 million jobs short of where we were and the biggest problem was the virus and the expiration of stimulus … Much more action is needed to control the virus and support the economy. And I think that will be enough to generate large improvements over the course of 2021." Speaking of stimulus: It's popular — Per our Adam Cancryn: "Americans just want the pandemic to be over — and … Biden will take office with overwhelming support for government action to make that happen. "The vast majority of Americans are eager for sweeping legislation aimed at ending the nation's health crisis and boosting the flagging economy, according to a new POLITICO-Harvard poll gauging the public's priorities as Biden's inauguration approaches." GOOD MONDAY MORNING — Welcome back to the madness and impeachment week. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver. | | A message from Independent Community Bankers of America: Community bankers welcome the 117th Congress: The new Congress is closely divided at a time of historic challenge and opportunity, but it need not be gridlocked. Accounting for more than 3.5 million Paycheck Protection Program loans, community banks have been financial first responders amid the coronavirus pandemic. ICBA offers a bipartisan legislative agenda with common-sense reforms to continue moving our nation forward. Learn more | | | | | | PELOSI PREPS IMPEACHMENT VOTE — Our Sarah Ferris, Heather Caygle, and Kyle Cheney: "Speaker Nancy Pelosi issued Vice President Mike Pence an ultimatum on Sunday night — invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Trump in the coming days or Democrats will proceed this week with impeaching the president for an unprecedented second time. "Pelosi made clear in a letter to her members that if Pence refuses to act, Democrats will immediately move to force Trump from office for his role in inciting violent riots at the Capitol on Wednesday linked to at least five deaths, including a police officer. Pence so far has shown no willingness to meet Democrats' demands, making an impeachment vote almost certain this week." REAL TALK — Democrats face a political (and arguably moral) imperative to impeach Trump and could do so by mid-week. But there are just nine days left in his term. So the chances of actual conviction and removal in a pre-inaugural Senate trial are essentially nil. There will also be no 25th amendment removal. All barring potential further Trump actions of course. MANCHIN WANTS TARGETED STIMULUS — In the "meet the new swing vote Senator" file… our Kelsey Tamborrino: "West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin walked a fine line Sunday on whether he'd support a round of stimulus checks increasing direct aid to Americans to $2,000 per person, saying he preferred more targeted relief. "'That's not a yes or no question,' Manchin said on CNN's 'State of the Union,' when asked by host Jake Tapper whether he was on board with sending $2,000 stimulus checks to Americans who earn $75,000 or less. 'I am on board by helping people that need help, people that really can't make it, people who don't have a job, they can't put food on their table. I am in total support of helping them,' Manchin said." | | | | A NEW YEAR, A NEW CONGRESS, A NEW HUDDLE: It was an ugly and heartbreaking week inside the Capitol, particularly for all of those who work on the Hill. How are lawmakers planning to move forward? How will security change? How will a new Senate majority impact the legislative agenda? With so much at stake, our new Huddle author Olivia Beavers brings you the most important news and critical insight from Capitol Hill with help from POLITICO's deeply sourced Congress team. Subscribe to Huddle, the essential guide to understanding Congress. It has never been more important. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | WHY YELLEN GETS A PASS ON WALL STREET CASH — Our Victoria Guida: "Treasury Secretary-nominee Janet Yellen's revelation that she received more than $5 million in speaking fees from financial firms raised concern among some progressives that she's too cozy with Wall Street. But a review of her public remarks suggests the opposite: She wants to crack down on key areas of finance instead. "Yellen … voiced worry about insufficient oversight of large firms that serve as hubs of lending or investment. She says regulators should particularly consider reining in hedge funds and other firms that have escaped heightened scrutiny … [T]hose comments, as well as her record as a bank regulator, help explain why many Democrats are confident she won't be beholden to financial interests." BOND MARKETS ISSUE WARNING — Mohamed A. El-Erian on Bloomberg Opinion: "U.S. government bond yields have registered some notable moves in the first few days of 2021. Should they continue on their current pace, they risk causing headaches for both policy makers and stock investors because of their underlying drivers." BIG STIMULUS NOT A TOTAL LOCK — PIMCO's Libby Cantrill, Tiffany Wilding, Allison Boxer: "[I]nvestors should prepare for the invariably bumpy and slow process of passing comprehensive legislation, especially with a 50–50 Senate." SOME NOT READY FOR PPP RE-START — Our Zachary Warmbrodt: "Small lenders that cater to underserved communities are warning the Trump administration that they won't be ready for Monday's restart of the Paycheck Protection Program and called on officials rushing to roll out the small business rescue to take more time." Also via Zach: "The Trump administration … will begin offering more than $284 billion in small business rescue loans to struggling employers, a major component of the economic relief law that Congress passed last month." | | | |   | | | | | | MARKETS RALLY HIGHLIGHTS BETS ON RECOVERY — WSJ's Michael Wursthorn: "Investors are showing signs of increasing exuberance, reflecting optimism about a vaccine-fueled global recovery and the changed economics of the post-coronavirus world. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6 percent for the first week of 2021, marking its fourth-straight weekly gain despite a mob storming the U.S. Capitol Wednesday and a decline in nonfarm payrolls reported Friday." BANK STOCKS ARE BACK IN VOGUE — Bloomberg's Felice Maranz: "Big U.S. banks have gone from losers to leaders in the stock market, rebounding from a pandemic-induced pummeling as investors anticipate a surge in federal spending in 2021 and look ahead to this week's earnings-season kickoff." INVESTORS LOOK TO UPCOMING EARNINGS FOR A VIEW INTO 2021 — Reuters' Carolina Valetkevitch: "Investors will be anxious to see whether upcoming quarterly reports and outlooks from U.S. companies validate expectations for a strong 2021 rebound in earnings and the economy, which were ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic last year." TRUMP'S BAN ON CHINESE STOCKS ROILS INVESTORS — WSJ's Alexander Osipovich and Chong Koh Ping: "U.S. investors have borne the brunt of an executive order signed by President Trump that was meant to hit the Chinese military by curtailing access to American dollars. "The order, which takes effect Monday, bans Americans from trading the securities of dozens of Chinese companies. People who invested in those stocks are upset after a confusing series of events over the past two weeks. During that time, U.S. officials, the New York Stock Exchange and brokerage firms sent mixed signals over which stocks would be prohibited and how quickly the investors were required to sell them." GOLDMAN, MORGAN STANLEY TO DELIST SOME HONG KONG PRODUCTS — Reuters: "Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan units will delist a total of 500 Hong Kong-listed structured products, Hong Kong stock exchange filings on Sunday showed. "The delistings are because of statements last week by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control clarifying a November order from President Donald Trump which banned Americans from investing in Chinese companies that the U.S. deems to have links with China's military, the filings said."
| | A message from the Independent Community Bankers of America: Community bankers and ICBA offer a bipartisan agenda: Community bankers welcome the 117th Congress at a time of historic challenge and opportunity. While the new Congress is closely divided, it need not be gridlocked. Employing more than 700,000 Americans across nearly 50,000 locations with a presence in every congressional district, community banks have a track record of working with both parties to craft pragmatic solutions grounded in consensus. ICBA's bipartisan legislative agenda for the 117th Congress offers common-sense policy reforms that will continue our economic recovery in urban, suburban, and rural communities nationwide. Learn more | | | | | | BUSINESSES RETHINK POLITICAL DONATIONS AFTER CAPITOL SIEGE — AP's Barbara Orutay: "Businesses are rethinking political contributions in the wake of the deadly Capitol siege by … Trump's supporters on Wednesday. Citigroup confirmed Sunday that it is pausing all federal political donations for the first three months of the year. In a memo to employees Friday, Citi's head of global government affairs Candi Wolff said 'we want you to be assured that we will not support candidates who do not respect the rule of law.'" THIS COULD BE THE BEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR JOB GROWTH — WSJ's Eric Morath: "The U.S. economy is poised to add more jobs this year than any other on records dating back to 1939—though the expected gain is unlikely to fully replace losses last spring, when the coronavirus pandemic first took hold. "U.S. nonfarm payrolls will increase by 6.7 million by December 2021, from last month, according to data firm IHS Markit. Economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics predicts 5.8 million jobs. Economists at the University of Michigan forecast 5.3 million. All would put 2021 well ahead of the 4.3 million jobs created in 1946, at the start of the post-World War II expansion, for the best year on record. It would be much less in percentage terms, though, 5 percent versus 11 percent in 1946." | | | | KEEP UP WITH THE FIRST 100 DAYS OF THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION WITH TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: It was a dark week in American history, and a new administration will have to pick up the pieces. Transition Playbook brings you inside the last days of this crucial transfer of power, tracking the latest from President-elect Biden and his growing administration. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news and analyzes the appointments, people, and the emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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