| Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 04, 2021 2021-01-04  Overview : The EUR/USD pair closing a raucous year above the level of 1.2200 in 2020. Also, it should be noted that : the past year has seen a range of over 1,672 pips (1.2310 high - 1.0638 low) in EUR/USD, as well as how markets respond and lessons to take forward. The EUR/USD pair set above strong support at the level of 1.2209, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for four times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 1.2209 because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 1.2209 and 1.2178. The EUR/USD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 1.2209 towards the first resistance level at 1.2244 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.2209 and further to the level of 1.2244. The EUR/USDpair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2209; to form a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.2209 and 1.2310. Notice that the major resistance is seen at 1.2281, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2260. Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 1.2244 to take place soon. The level of 1.2310 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 1.2310. At the same time, if a breakout happens at the support levels of 1.2178 and 1.2154, then this scenario may be invalidated. But in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario. Trading recommandations : If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2228, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2228. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 1.2310. Buy orders are recommended above the area of 1.2228 with the first target at the level of 1.2244; and continue towards the abjoctives of 1.2260, 1.2281 and 1.2310. On the other hand, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 1.2310; the market will decline further to the level of 1.2178. AUD/USD. Australian dollar is heading towards the 0.7800 mark 2021-01-04 As expected, the AUD/USD pair reached the level of 0.77 and is currently trying to consolidate in this price area. It was almost guaranteed to reach it after the impulse breakdown of the level of 0.7605 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart). However, there is also a downside to this event: the higher the AUD/USD buyers rise, the higher the risk of a massive corrective pullback becomes. At the moment, the bulls of the pair hardly win every point, following the principle of "one step forward, two back". In this case, the situation will only get worse as soon as traders reach the 0.7800 mark. 
It should be noted that the AUD/USD pair is currently at multi-month highs: the last time the Australian dollar was at such levels was in March 2018. Prior to it, the Australian dollar reached three-year highs at the beginning of 2018 (January-February), settling in the price area of 0.81. However, buyers failed to stay at these price heights. The AUD began to gradually, but steadily decline after reaching the level of 0.8137 and so, almost every candlestick on the monthly chart was bearish over a year. As a result, the Australian dropped to the area of the strong support level of 0.7000, and traded in the range of 0.68-0.71 for a year and a half until the coronavirus crisis. Over the past 7 years, the pair has hardly stayed above the 0.80 mark for more than a few weeks, although it was much higher (in the range of 0.95-1.10) between 2009-2014, which is after the end of the global economic crisis and before the era of the dollar's recovery when the US Fed began to actively raise interest rates. This background suggests that we are approaching an extreme, from where a large-scale correction is possible. There are less than three hundred points left to the key level (80th figure), after the pair has risen more than 700 points over the past two months (from the beginning of November). In addition, as soon as the pair reaches the price level of 0.78-0.80, it will surely attract the attention of members of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Considering the past time periods, it can be noted that the RBA members regularly criticized the overvalued rate of the national currency. Therefore, it is likely that Philip Lowe will focus on this aspect during the next meeting of the regulator, which will take place next month. Besides the risk of verbal intervention, there are other factors for the AUD/USD dynamics. First of all, we are talking about China, which still have tension with Australia. Canberra continues to insist on a global investigation into the origin of the coronavirus and on measures taken at an early stage (that is, when it was still within the borders of Wuhan) to combat it. In addition, Australia remains one of the most vocal critics of the Chinese authorities' policy towards the Uyghurs. Here, it should be noted that the relations between the countries began to get cold in 2018, when Canberra banned the use of Chinese Huawei products for the construction of 5G networks in the country. China did not remain in debt. At the end of last year, it imposed restrictions on imports of Australian coal (the official reason is that Australian coal does not meet Chinese environmental standards). Before that, Beijing significantly increased customs duties on Australian wines, and also restricted the supply of two leading Australian suppliers of lamb. At the same time, Chinese customs authorities have suspended part of the Australian supply of beef and barley, saying that they do not meet the sanitary standards of the People's Republic of China. So far, the Australian dollar has been relatively calm about the Australian-Chinese conflict. During periods of escalation, the indicated currency shows a corrective price decline, while the upward trend remains. In my opinion, the situation can seriously change any moment if China focus its attention to iron ore. This is mostly the only strategically important commodity for Australia that has not been affected by interstate issue. 
China is the largest importer of ore – almost 70% of the world's ore imports, totaling almost $ 100 billion, went to China during 2018. In turn, Australia is the largest supplier of ore to China – more than 65% of all ore imported into the country came from ports on the Green Continent. Given the above figures, it can be assumed that as soon as Beijing starts talking about any restrictions on this commodity, the Australian dollar will collapse to several figures. At the moment, iron ore is not yet involved, while the China-Australia conflict still persists and is gradually gaining momentum. Therefore, Beijing is very likely to use this leverage, at least in the context of verbal pressure. Simply put, it will scare Australia's restrictive measures on its iron ore. In this case, the AUD/USD pair retains its upside potential to 0.7800 in the medium-term. However, it is suggested to close long positions in this price area, as AUD/USD buyers may face certain difficulties in reaching the level of 0.7800. These difficulties will be both due to the Chinese factor and the RBA's position, whose members will begin to exert verbal pressure on the Australian dollar. The technical side of the issue is consistent with the fundamental one. On D1, W1 and M1, the AUD/USD pair is on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator. On the daily and weekly charts, the Ichimoku indicator has formed a bullish "Parade Line" signal. On the monthly chart, the nearest resistance level is located at 0.7800 - upper limit of the Kumo cloud. Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 04, 2021 2021-01-04  Overview : Pound Sterling - US Dollar : In the first week of 2021, the bullish dynamics of the GBP/USD currency pair is expected with an optimal trading above the area of 1.3550 - 1.3590. An uptrend is expected on the GBP/USD currency pair. The average price for the period is 1.3557 ( 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels, major support). Minimum prices are predicted at the level of: 1.3557. The maximum value of quotes: 1.3760. According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3557 and 1.3760; for that we expect a range of 203 pips (1.3760 - 1.3557). On the one-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.3557 and 1.3587. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. As the price is still above the moving average (100), immediate support is seen at 1.3587, which coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci). Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3587. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.3587/1.3557. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the golden ratio (1.3587) with the first target at the level of 1.3685. Furthermore, if the trend is able to breakout through the first resistance level of 1.3685. We should see the pair climbing towards the next targets of 1.3720 and 1.3760. It would also be wise to consider where to place a stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3526. Forecast : Uptrend scenario : An uptrend will start as soon, as the market rises above resistance level 1.3587, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.3760 (R3). However, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.3526. Gold to shine in 2021 2021-01-04  2020 has been an unprecedented year for the precious metals market. In August, gold prices hit a record high above $ 2,000 an ounce. But while the precious metals sector is gaining investor attention, the mining sector continues to lag behind. In particular, its value was much lower than what it was during the last bull market in gold and silver. However, some market analysts believe this will change this year, since investors will not be able to ignore the expected rally in gold, especially amid new mining companies. At the moment, gold is trading at 3,000 pips.  In that regard, mining expert Joe Mazumdar listed three of the best mining companies: Trilogy Metals (TMQ.T, TMQ.NYSE), who has a joint venture with South32 (S32.ASX) on the Arctic deposit of polymetallic volcanogenic massive sulfides with a predominance of copper and a deposit of bornite carbonate replacement in Alaska. The company announced its plan and budget in 2021 (US $ 21 million), which include exploration drilling in Ambler to increase resources. Liberty Gold (LGD.T, LGDTF.OTC), who is promoting the Black Pine gold project, which has the potential to be an important target for an open pit heap leach in mining-friendly Idaho. The company continues to drill and discover new zones of ubiquitous gold oxide mineralization, expanding its footprint (+ 4.6 sq. Km) and expanding its drilling program for 2021 to more than 50,000 meters. Upcoming catalysts include a first resource (Q1 / 21), a preliminary study or PEA (Q2-Q3 / 21), and a preliminary feasibility study (PFS) of the Goldstrike gold project in southwest Utah, which is currently undervalued. Bluestone Resources (BSR.V), who is managing the feasibility study for the Cerro Blanco high grade underground gold project in Guatemala. The company resumed its drilling program after being quarantined in October 2020 and has achieved significant results. Current measured and estimated resources contain 1.4 million ounces at 10.3 grams per tonne of gold. The current price is well over $ 1,800. At $ 1,500 and $ 1,700 per ounce, the company would trade at a discount of 0.7-0.8x and 0.5-0.6x, respectively. Precious metal producers will continue to generate free cash flow on these gold and silver prices, which will offset any minor production shortfalls caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS.T, PAAS.NASDAQ) generated operating cash flow of $ 292 million, up by 54% over the same period last year. Of course, it is easier for mid-range producers to output more than other producers such as Barrick Gold (ABX.T, GOLD.NYSE) and Newmont Corp. (NEM.NYSE, NGT.T). But Biden's presidency will change the outlook for these companies operating in the United States, especially since permits will take longer to obtain, and those emitting significant greenhouse gases will be negatively impacted. The government is trying its best to find a way out of the current economic downturn, while at the same time protecting the local industry. Technical analysis and forecast of GBP/USD on January 4, 2021 2021-01-04 Hello, dear traders! At the start of 2021, the pound/dollar pair is trading in an uptrend. The bullish movement also occurred at the end of the previous year. It seems that all the optimism and pessimism regarding the UK-EU trade agreement has already been taken into account by market participants. Currently, GBP/USD is steadily moving upward. Daily 
Notably, trading on GBP/USD opened with a small price gap, which is not surprising. Nevertheless, this gap was so insignificant that it almost immediately ended. Currently, the GBP/USD pair is steadily rising and trading around 1.3675. As expected earlier, if the upward trend continues, the pound sterling may advance to 1.3700. The currency pair is likely to encounter strong resistance at this level and rebound. Otherwise, a correction may start. This is exactly what is happening now. Today, the currency pair has already tested the 1.3700 mark. It is a strong resistance level. Therefore, it is not surprising that the pair's first attempt to break through it failed. If the price closes above 1.3700 and consolidates, the next bearish targets will be seen at 1.3740, 1.3780, and 1.3810. Most likely, it will happen with time as bears can also influence the course of trading and try to make it as difficult as possible for their opponents. If there is a reversal candlestick below 1.3700, it will give a sell signal on GBP/USD. However, so far, it will be only with an eye to a possible correction. Still, it is too early to talk about a reversal and a change in the uptrend. H1 
On the hourly chart, GBP/USD is moving in an ascending channel, where 1.3430-1.3472 is the support line and 1.3685 is the resistance line. Given the trading strategy and the fact that the pair is trading in the upper part of the channel, one should consider buying the pair after the price has approached the middle dotted line of the channel. Apart from that, one can open long positions after the price has reached the lower border of the channel. From my point of view, the second option is more preferable. Firstly, the buy price is lower. Secondly, the support line of 1.3600 and 89 exponential moving average, located near the lower border of the channel, are able to provide a stronger support and bring back the pair to the upward trend. At the moment, it is too risky to open short positions. Nevertheless, they are also relevant but with smaller targets. Today, the United Kingdom will deliver its manufacturing PMI report. We will see how investors will react to the macroeconomic indicators this year. In 2020, especially in the second half of the year, the fundamental factors were often ignored. Have a nice trading day! Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on January 4, 2021 2021-01-04 The year 2021 has arrived, with which the whole world is hoping to overcome the COVID-19 pandemic through universal vaccination. However, this should take a sufficient amount of time and a new challenge to the world is the so-called new British strain of coronavirus infection, as well as waiting for the third and subsequent waves of this dangerous epidemic. It is characteristic that in China, where it all began when even one infected person is detected, exceptionally strict measures are taken in the form of universal testing of citizens of the territory where the infected person is detected, as well as wormwood closure from the outside world of cities with millions of inhabitants. Agree that to do this, you need to have very strong levers of power, and people's consciousness and discipline should be at the highest level. At a level that Europeans and Americans can only dream of. Meanwhile, in the United States of America, Donald Trump is preparing to transfer power and leave the Oval Office. Despite numerous promises not to leave his post, Trump lost almost all the courts on fraud in the presidential election and is a decorative figure on which nothing depends. Both ordinary Americans and representatives of parties in the US Congress and Senate understand this. This was confirmed by ignoring Trump's "veto" on the defense budget. However, we will not go into details now, after all, the article is devoted to the main currency pair of the Forex market, so we will proceed to consider the technical picture of this instrument. Daily 
As expected in the last article of 2020, the auction of the coming year opened with a price gap. Most often, this is exactly what happens, so it was recommended to close all open positions and calmly go to celebrate the New Year. And indeed, after a long New Year's weekend, today's trading opened with a price gap up, that is, with a bullish gap. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading with a slight increase in the area of 1.2263. It is characteristic that it was the previously designated price zone of 1.2300-1.2320 that stopped the pair's further progress in the north direction. The daily chart clearly shows that the attempts of the bulls on the euro on December 30 and 31 to raise the rate above 1.2300 came across strong resistance from sellers in the area of 1.2309. If the bulls manage to pass this barrier, their next targets will be 1.2320, 1.2350, and 1.2380. We will talk about higher upward benchmarks in the case of consolidation above the level of 1.2300. H4 
At the moment, according to trading recommendations, it is better to look at purchases after a decline to the black support line of the ascending channel, near which the 50 simple and 89 exponential moving averages are located. If you focus on prices, then this is the area of 1.2230-1.2200. More aggressively and riskily, you can try buying a pair from current prices. To open short positions, you need to wait for the appearance of bearish candles on the daily, four-hour, and hourly timeframes in the price resistance zone of 1.2270-1.2310. And in conclusion, it is necessary to note the main fundamental event of the starting week, which will undoubtedly be the reports on the US labor market, which will be published this Friday, January 8. Technical analysis for EUR/USD pair for January 2021 2021-01-04 Trend analysis In January, the continuation of the upward movement is possible to the first target, namely the upper fractal of 1.2553 (blue dotted line) – monthly candlestick from 01/02/2018. If this level is broken upwards, the next upper target will be 1.2803 – the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (monthly chart) - Indicator analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up
- Fibonacci levels - up
- Volumes - up;
- Candlestick analysis - up
- Trend analysis - up
- Bollinger lines - up
A possible upward movement can be concluded based on complex analysis. The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the monthly chart: the price will most likely have an upward trend, with the first lower shadow (first week of the month – bottom) in the monthly white candlestick and without the second upper shadow (last week – white). General scenario: the price from the level of 1.2216 (closing of the December monthly candlestick) can continue to rise to the first target of 1.2554 (blue dotted line) – upper fractal (monthly candle from 01/02/2018). In case that this level is broken upwards, the next upper target will be 1.2803 – the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). An unlikely scenario: a downward movement from the level of 1.2281 (closing of the December monthly candlestick) to the target of 1.2067 – a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line) is unlikely. Technical analysis for GBP/USD pair for January 2021 2021-01-04 The price in December staged an upward rally (the news background played an important role), breaking through the level of 1.3621 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 76.4% and testing the resistance of 1.3685 (red bold line). In January, a downward pullback from the upward trend is possible. Trend analysis In January, the price from the level of 1.3658 (closing of the December monthly candlestick) is expected to decline to the first target of 1.3351 – the pullback level of 14.6% (blue dotted line). In case of testing this level, the upward movement can continue to the upper target located at 1.3708 – the resistance line (red bold line). The final monthly target may be the level of 1.3940 – the pullback level of 85.4% (red dotted line). 
Figure 1 (monthly chart) Indicator analysis: - Indicator analysis - down
- Fibonacci levels - down
- Volumes - down
- Candlestick analysis - down
- Trend analysis - down
- Bollinger lines - down
A possible downward trend can be concluded based on complex analysis. The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the monthly chart: the price will most likely have a downward trend without the first upper shadow (first week of the month – black) in the monthly black candlestick and with the second lower shadow (last week – white). The most likely scenario: the price from the level of 1.3658 (closing of the December monthly candlestick) is likely to move downwards to the first target of 1.3351 – a pullback level of 14.6% (blue dotted line). After testing this level, the upward movement will continue to the next upper target at 1.3708 – the resistance line (red bold line). The final monthly target may be the level of 1.3940 – the pullback level of 85.4% (red dotted line). An alternative scenario: the price from the level of 1.3658 (closing of the December monthly candlestick) may possibly move upwards to the first target of 1.3742 – the historic resistance level (blue dotted line). In case of testing this level, the upward movement will continue to the upper target of 1.3940 – the pullback level of 85.4% (red dotted line). EUR/USD analysis for January 04 2021 - Upside continuation with potential test of 1.2350 2021-01-04 ECB's de Cos: We can use full PEPP envelope or increase it if required Would not need full PEPP envelope if financial conditions persist - Yield curve control is an option worth exploring
One of the less talked about issues as we start the new year is the divide among ECB policymakers at their last meeting in December. The remarks by de Cos above reflect one side of that divide and will certainly run into some opposition from the other side as things continue to progress later on in the year. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that the buyers are in control and that EUR got strong rejection of the rising trendline, which is good for uspide continuation. Watch for buying opportunities on the pullbacks with the targets at the price of 1,2350 and 1,2410. Stochastic is still bullish and not in the overbought zone on the 4H time-frame. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Silver and Lean Hogs today and on the bottom Ethanol and Lumber. EUR is positive for today.... Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2310 and 1,2350. Support levels: 1,2225 Analysis of Gold for January 04,.2021 - Targets reached and potential for bigger rise towards $1.960 2021-01-04 UK November mortgage approvals 105.0k vs 83.5k expected Prior 97.5k - Net consumer credit -£1.5 billion vs -£1.3 billion expected
- Prior -£0.6 billion
Slight delay in the release by the source. There's no signs of slowing down in the UK housing market as mortgage approvals jump further in November, with house purchases being the highest since August 2007. However, consumer credit continue to reflect more subdued conditions with the annual change in consumer credit growth falling further to -6.7% from -5.5% (revised) last month. 
Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that Gold reached both upside targets from last week at $1,895 and $1,910. Anyway, dude to strong upside trend, our advice is still to watch for buying opportunities with potential for the test of the major swing high at $1,960. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Silver and Lean Hogs today and on the bottom Ethanol and Lumber. Gold is one of the strongest symbols today... Key Levels: Resistance: $1,959 Support levels: $1,950
Author's today's articles: Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
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