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The best broker in Asia www.instaforex.com Daily analysts mail subscription Technical analysis for EUR/USD pair for the week of January 11-16, 2021 2021-01-11 The EUR/USD pair moved in a sideways channel last week. During the start of the first week, the price moved up and tested the upper fractal of 1.2309 (red dotted line), but it declined afterwards, closing the weekly candle at 1.2217. Therefore, the price may continue to move down this week. Trend analysis The price from the level of 1.2217 (closing of the last weekly candle) may continue to decline this week to the level of 1.2098 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 14.6%. Upon reaching this level, the upward movement can possibly continue to the target of 1.2349 (red dotted line) – the upper fractal. Figure 1 (weekly chart) Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - down Fibonacci levels - down Volumes - down Candlestick analysis - down Trend analysis - up Bollinger lines - up Monthly chart - down A downward movement can be concluded based on comprehensive analysis. The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the weekly chart: the price is likely to have a downward trend this week, without an upper shadow in the weekly black candlestick (Monday - down) and no lower shadow (Friday - down). The first lower target is 1.2095 – a pullback level of 14.6%. Upon reaching this level, the upward movement can possibly continue to the target of 1.2349 (red dotted line) – the upper fractal. An alternative scenario: the price can decline from the level of 1.2217 (closing of the last weekly candle) to the target of 1.2095 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 14.6%. After reaching this level, it is possible to continue the downward movement to the target of 1.1943 (red dotted line) – a pullback level of 23.6%. Forex forecast 01/011/2021 on USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Gold and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga 2021-01-11 Let's take a look at the technical picture of USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, Gold and Bitcoin at the daily time frame chart. Technical analysis for GBP/USD pair for the week of January 11-16, 2021 2021-01-11 Trend analysis This week, the price from the level of 1.3565 (closing of the last weekly candle) is expected to decline to the target of 1.3351 – a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). If this line is tested, the downward movement can continue to the target of 1.3294 – the support line (white bold line), from which growth is possible. Figure 1 (weekly chart) Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - down Fibonacci levels - down Volumes - down Candlestick analysis - down Trend analysis - down Bollinger lines - up Monthly chart - down A downward movement can be concluded based on comprehensive analysis. The overall result of the candlestick calculation based on the weekly chart: the price will most likely have a downward trend, without the first upper shadow in the weekly black candlestick (Monday - down) and without the second lower shadow (Friday - down). The first lower target is 1.3351 – a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). If this line is tested, it is possible to continue the downward movement to the target of 1.3294 – the support line (white bold line), from which growth is possible. An alternative scenario: the price from the level of 1.3565 (closing of the last weekly candle) can decline to the target of 1.3351 – a pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). After testing this line, the downward movement can continue to the target of 1.3147 – a pullback level of 23.6% (red dotted line). From this level, it is possible to move upwards. GBP/USD falls below 1.3500 mark 2021-01-11 The return of investor interest in the US dollar amid unrest in the Capitol, the talks of Donald Trump's impeachment, and weak statistics on the US labor market in December, as well as a clash with the hard reality regarding Brexit, brought GBP/USD quotes below the base of the 35th figure. Yes, London and Brussels managed to strike a deal on a falling flag deal, but leaving the European Union will cost Britain's economy dearly. Moreover, due to the rampant COVID-19, Britain is forced to leave for the third lockdown. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said a trade deal with the EU would cost the UK around £80 billion. The official referred to the calculations of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), according to which, British GDP will lose about 4% in the long term. Such comments by the head of the regulator forced money markets to increase the likelihood of the BoE's imminent introduction of negative interest rates. Investors believe that this will happen in March. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Central Bank will cut the repo rate from 0.1% to 0% in February, MUFG expects a deeper cut, to -0.15% at the end of winter. Money Market Repo Rate Expectations With trade wars and Brexit gone from the limelight, and the pandemic likely to do so in 2021, markets will return to their normal state. And in such conditions, monetary policy is a key factor in the exchange rate formation on Forex. In this regard, the intention of the Fed to hold rates and the Bank of England to reduce them should play into the hands of the "bears" on GBP/USD. Moreover, sterling's troubles do not end with the third lockdown, according to Bloomberg estimates, Britain's GDP may fall by 4.5% in the first quarter after a 1% decline in the fourth, there are also rumors about a reduction in the repo rate. A trade deal with the EU regulates access to the Single Market only for British goods, while services, which make up about 80% of the economy, will face serious problems due to the severing ties. In addition, Scotland, dissatisfied with London's policy on COVID-19, threatens to secede from the United Kingdom. The independence referendum will increase political risks and put pressure on the pound. The reanimation of the US dollar was not at all included in the plans of the "bulls" for GBP/USD. The first decline in employment for the entire agricultural sector since the outbreak of the pandemic that swept the US in the spring was an unpleasant surprise for fans of risky assets. The increase in demand for safe-haven assets, primarily for the US dollar, was another reason for the fall in the quotes of the analyzed pair. Now investors are concerned about what is more important: the problems of Britain or the recovery of the downward trend in the USD index? In my opinion, the pound may go into consolidation in the range of $1.33-1.375. At the same time, its fall to the lower border area should be used for purchases. Technically, the target of 161.8% for the pattern of harmonious trading AB=CD (it corresponds to the area of 1.397-1.4) by "bulls" on GBP/USD has not yet been fulfilled, and in such conditions, pullbacks can serve as a reason for the formation of long positions. GBP/USD daily chart Technical recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on January 11 2021-01-11 EUR/USD There was a formation of new prerequisites for a full-fledged downward correction in the weekly time frame, despite updating the high. During the other day, the bulls lost the support of the short-term trend in the process of decline. The all-time level of 1.2170 and the final levels of the daily cross are currently being tested. A reliable consolidation below eliminates the daily golden cross of Ichimoku, which can result in the opening of a next downward pivot point – the weekly Tenkan (1.2075). Among these pivots, a downward target for the breakdown of the H4 cloud (1.2116 - 1.2091) can also be noted. The strength of the encountered support (1.2170) can now contribute to a long slowdown and some recovery of positions. At this time, the main level will be the result of interaction with the overcame levels of the daily cross, which exert an attraction on the zone of 1.2204 - 1.2238 - 1.2258. All analyzed technical instruments in the smaller time frames provide support on the bears' side, giving them advantage. Currently, the strength of the first support level (1.2179) is being tested. Further supports of the classic pivot levels are located at 1.2140 and 1.2087. In turn, the key resistance levels which are responsible for the distribution of forces in the same time frames are at 1.2232 (central pivot level) and 1.2272 (weekly long-term trend) today. GBP/USD Last Friday, the bearish traders won. This led to the continuation of the downward correction as the new week began. The attraction is now in the range of 1.3538-74 (historical level + daily Tenkan). At the moment, the current support level of 1.3481 (historical level + daily Fibo Kijun) is being tested. The pivot points for further decline is 1.3416 (weekly Tenkan + daily Kijun) and 1.3350 (monthly Senkou Span A + daily Fibo Kijun). The bears are now enjoying their advantage in the smaller time frame. With the support of all analyzed technical indicators, they implement a decline. As a result, the second support level of 1.3481 (S2) is being tested, while the next support level of 1.3424 (S3) can serve as an intraday pivot point. The key support levels are joining forces in the area of 1.3579-86 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend) today. If a consolidation occurs above, it will change the current balance of power in the smaller time frame, returning bullish prospects. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classical), Moving Average (120) AUD/USD pair continues its upward trend 2021-01-11 The AUD/USD pair is following the general trends, reflecting the US dollar's strengthening. The Australian dollar is testing the support level of 0.7700 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily chart), yielding to the bears' dominance. Considering the continuing growth of the US dollar index, we can assume that sellers will most likely enter the area of the 76th mark, designating the medium-term target in the form of 0.7630 (middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily time frame). However, further prospects for the AUD/USD bears look quite unclear, since the US dollar is currently rising more on emotions in view of the political crisis in the United States. The problem is that political fundamental factors are actually unreliable and temporary. Therefore, it is not worth trading on the downward trend of AUD/USD pair, especially considering the growth of Australia's macro indicators and the corresponding decline of American indicators. The latest Nonfarm, which was published last Friday, reminded us once again that the US economy is still under pressure from COVID-19. For the first time since the spring of last year, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector declined to 140 thousand, despite forecasting minimal growth. Other components of the release was disappointing as well. For example, the number of employees in the private sector also declined by 98 thousand. So, as soon as politics disappears and key macroeconomic reports return in front, the US dollar will be under pressure. In this context, the release of data on the growth of US inflation scheduled on Wednesday (January 13), will be important. If this macroeconomic report disappoints the market, the US dollar's vulnerability will increase in many ways, especially when paired with the Australian dollar. According to forecasts, the general consumer price index should slightly rise – both on an annual and monthly basis (+ 0.4% m / m + 1.3% y / y). But on the contrary, the core index, excluding food prices and energy carriers, should show negative dynamics, dropping to 0.1% on a monthly basis and to 1.5% on an annual basis. If both components of the release are in the sell zone, the dollar may fall under a wave of sales, but only if the political tension in the US calms down. Otherwise, the market will use this data (as well as Nonfarm) a little later. It is most likely after the inauguration of Joe Biden, which will take place on January 20. In other words, the latest US macroeconomic reports are considered as a "time bomb" that should be remembered when monitoring the current behavior of the US dollar. It should also be recalled that the Fed still takes a "dovish" position, intending to expand the volume of incentive programs. The minutes of the last (December) Fed meeting, which was released last week, reminded investors again that the regulator's members are disappointed with the current condition. The Fed said that the overall pace of the US economic recovery has slowed down, and the level of GDP is still much lower than before the outbreak of the pandemic. According to general forecasts, economic growth will further slowdown in the coming months as the epidemic situation worsens across the country. In turn, Australian macroeconomic reports have recently been released in the buy zone, and RBA's rhetoric was restrained and optimistic. The unemployment rate in the country continues to gradually decline, while the number of employees is growing, which is due to the growth of the full employment component. The commodity market is also growing. Iron ore, which is a strategically important commodity in Australia, continues to update price records. An increased demand from China has pushed spot prices of raw materials for steel production above $ 160 per tonne. Therefore, experts from Goldman Sachs believe that the upward price dynamics will continue in the medium term. The rising political conflict between China and Australia only triggers interest in iron ore, although Beijing bypasses this raw product in the confrontation with Canberra. At the same time, China's macroeconomic data also provide indirect support to the Australian dollar. For example, it became known today that its December's consumer price index rose to 0.2% after declining to -0.5% in November. The producer price index also came out in the "green zone", showing its recovery. In other words, the US dollar will lose its attractiveness as soon as the market changes its focus from political to macroeconomic factors. In my opinion, political news from the US will be scheduled for another 7-10 days. During this period, Congress will vote for the application of the 25th amendment to the US Constitution (a deliberately failed scenario of removing Trump from power) and for the impeachment procedure (a more likely scenario, but at the same time longer – the process itself will end after Biden takes office). After these two votes, traders' attention will gradually shift from the political background to the economic one. In this case, there is no reason yet to discuss the completion of the upward trend of the AUD/USD pair. In my opinion, we are talking about a large-scale correction in the wake of rising anti-risk sentiment. If the downward impulse fades, which is most likely in the middle of the 76th figure, that is, in the area of 0.7630-0.7650, it will be possible in the medium term to consider buying to the level of 0.7800 – upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily time frame. Make money Deposit funds Author's today's articles: Sergey Belyaev Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Igor Kovalyov Igor Kovalyov was born on September 24, 1985. Igor graduated from Krasnoyarsk State University with a degree in Philology and Journalism. He has a wide experience as a newspaper and information agency correspondent. He got interested in financial markets in 2001. He also graduated from Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics, and Informatics (MESI) with a degree in Global Economics and then served as an analyst in an investment company. He has been working at InstaForex since 2014. Zhizhko Nadezhda Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn Irina Manzenko Irina Manzenko Subscription's options management Theme's: Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets Author's : A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda Edit data of subscription settings Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely, Analysts Service If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the InstaForex Toll free numbers right now: 1 866 8000 719 0 8000 51 88 99 0 800 898 548 1 800 882 528 001 803 017 910 0 800 500 329 822 140 799 8 800 080 5553 Other countries +7 (499) 7042343, +7 (812) 4580351 E-mail: support@instaforex.com InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. 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