| Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 01/11/21 2021-01-11 The pair moved in a sideway channel last Friday. First, the market tested the upper fractal of 1.3632 (daily candle from 01/072021) and then the price went down, closing the daily candle at 1.3565. Today, the economic calendar is not expected and the price may continue to go down. Trend Analysis (Figure 1). Today, the market can continue to go down from the level of 1.3565 (Friday's daily candle close) with the target of 1.3481 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). When testing this line, it will continue to go down with the target of 1.3367 at the pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis - down
- Technical Analysis - down
General Conclusion: Today, the price can continue to move down with the target of 1.3481 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). When testing this line, it will go down with a target of 1.3367 at the pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.3565 (Friday's daily candle close), the historical resistance level (blue dotted line) may continue to go down with the target of 1.3481. When testing this line, it is possible to go up with a target of 1.3676 at the pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the EUR/USD currency pair 01/11/21 2021-01-11 Trend Analysis (Figure 1). Today, the market will go down from the level of 1.2217 (closing of Friday's daily candle) and can test the pullback level of 23.6% at 1.2172 (red dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to go down with a target of 1.2063 at the pullback level of 38.2% (red dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis - down
- Technical Analysis - down
General Conclusion: Today, the market will go down from the level of 1.2217 (closing of Friday's daily candle) and can test the pullback level of 23.6% at 1.2172 (red dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may continue to go down with a target of 1.2063 at the pullback level of 38.2% (red dotted line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.2217 (closing of Friday's daily candle), it will go down and can test the pullback level of 23.6% at 1.2172 (red dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may start going up with a target of 1.2234 at the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Trading plan for EUR/USD on January 11. COVID-19 has retreated a bit. Meanwhile, the euro is under a correction. 2021-01-11 
There is a decline in both global and US COVID-19 incidence. However, a decrease usually takes place on weekends, therefore, it is necessary to wait for today's data to see if the virus has really retreated. In any case, vaccination is active around the world, albeit at a slow pace. The effect is expected to be seen not earlier than February. At the moment, Israel is leading on the percentage of vaccinated citizens, where by the end of March, it would already amount to more than 50% of the population. Meanwhile, the situation in Europe is still bad. Tough quarantine measures are imposed in Britain and Germany. 
EUR/USD - the euro is under a correction. Therefore, traders can gain more profit on short positions. As for longs, trades may be set from 1.2180, 1.2285 or from a new local high. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 11. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Euro drops, but too early to panic. Bears aim to surpass 1.2174 2021-01-11 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Weak fundamental reports on the European economy from last Friday became the reason why short positions in the euro had increased, and everything that happens in the US, associated with the confirmation of Joe Biden as president, only raised the demand for the US dollar at the beginning of 2021. Most likely, the tendency for the euro to weaken will continue further, but is unlikely to be medium-term. But before talking about further prospects for the pair's movement, let's see what was happening in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions changed. Judging by the presented graph, the report has not changed much compared to last year. There was an increase in both long and short positions In the COT report for January 5. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend despite the euro's decline earlier this year, which will make it possible for new major players to enter the market. News on the ongoing vaccinations against the first strain of coronavirus in Europe will also support euro buyers. Pressure on the euro will come from isolation measures and quarantines in several European countries. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 222,443 to 224,832, while short non-commercial positions jumped from 78,541 to 81,841. Due to the larger increase in short positions, the total non-commercial net position decreased from 143,902 to 142,991 weeks earlier. The insignificant change in the delta at the beginning of the year is unlikely to indicate a change in the tactics of euro buyers, who count on bringing back the single currency's growth after the abolition of quarantine measures in the EU countries. Now for the pair's technical picture. Large buyers will focus on protecting support at 1.2174, which was updated during the Asian session. Forming a false breakout there will lead to creating a signal to open long positions in the euro. However, given the lack of important fundamental reports and low trading volume, one can not count on serious activity in the 1.2174 area. In the absence of any action at this level, I recommend postponing long positions until a larger low in the 1.2130 area has been updated, or buy EUR/USD immediately after rebounding from a low of 1.2083, counting on a correction of 20-25 points within the day. The 1.2083 level is a very important support, a breakout of which could seriously increase the pressure on the euro. We can say that buyers have managed to stop the downward correction only when the pair has settled above resistance at 1.2224. Testing this level from top to bottom creates an additional signal to open long positions in euros with the main goal of updating highs of 1.2281 and 1.2315, which is where I recommend taking profits. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: The initial task of the sellers is to protect resistance at 1.2224, slightly above which the moving averages pass, playing on the side of the bear market. Forming a false breakout there will lead to creating a new downward correction, and its goal is for the quote to surpass support at 1.2174, which is currently being traded. The lower border of the current downward price channel also passes in this area. Getting the pair to settle below this range and testing it from the bottom up will open a direct road to a low of 1.2130, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will still be 1.2083, which will become the defining one in the current downward momentum. Having no fundamental reports for the day will also affect the trading volume, so volatility can be quite unpredictable. If the bulls find the strength and manage to surpass resistance at 1.2224, I recommend not to rush to sell. The optimal scenario would be a test of the 1.2281 high, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on the pair's correction down by 20-25 points. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that sellers of the euro are in control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands If the euro grows, the average border of the indicator in the 1.2224 area will act as resistance. You can sell EUR/USD on a rebound from the upper border in the 1.2281 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 11. COT reports (analysis of yesterday's deals). Pound going for a correction. Bears aim to surpass support at 1.3493 2021-01-11 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: The British pound has been trading in a tight horizontal channel for the past week, showing no significant signs of growth since the conclusion of a trade agreement late last year. This position did not suit the speculative players, who gradually began to take profits, fearing a downward correction. Most likely, the pressure on the British pound will remain at the beginning of this week. Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market. Demand for the pound, although it remains, is gradually declining due to concerns about supply chain disruptions and weak economic growth earlier this year in the UK. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for January 5 recorded a slight decline in interest in the British pound, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37,550 to 35,526. At the same time, short non-commercial positions remained practically unchanged and only increased from 31,518 to 31,861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and reached 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the infection stabilizes. Additional stimulus from the Bank of England, which economists will soon talk about, may also somewhat smooth out the upward trend in the pound. As for the pair's technical picture, the pound is still under pressure in today's Asian session, which may result in a new sale at the beginning of the European session. Buyers must maintain control over the 1.3493 level in the first half of the day. Forming a false breakout there will be a signal to open long positions in hopes for the pound to recover in the short term and reach resistance at 1.3557. The main goal will be to break through and consolidate. Testing this level from top to bottom creates an additional entry point, which will open a direct road to highs of 1.3629 and 1.3701, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pound falls further and bulls are not active in the support area of 1.3493, it is best not to rush to buy, but wait for an update of the 1.3433 low, where you can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on a 30-40 point correction within the day. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The lack of important fundamental reports early in the week will continue to put some pressure on investors who are taking profits after the lack of large gains expected from the UK's EU-trade deal. Forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3557 will weigh on the pair and result in its succeeding decline. A more important goal is to be able to surpass and settle below support at 1.3493. Testing this level from the bottom up creates a good signal to open short positions in GBP/USD, in hopes of pulling down the pair so it can reach lows of 1.3433 and 1.3372, which is where I recommend taking profits. If the bulls manage to regain the 1.3557 level in the morning, then it is better not to rush with short positions. The optimal scenario for selling the pound will be updating the high at 1.3629. I also recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound in the resistance area of 1.3701, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the pound could fall in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands If the pound rises, the indicator's middle border at 1.3557 will act as a resistance. Selling the pound immediately on a rebound can be done from the upper border of the indicator in the 1.3629 area. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 11, 2021 2021-01-11  Overview : - British Pound / U.S. Dollar
- Chart : One-hour
- Pivot : 1.3565
The GBP/USD pair at first tried to rally a bit during the course of the week but gave back the gains rather quickly, it closed at the key level 1.3565. We will see a lot of news based around the British pound due to the lock down in that country, and of course the mutant variation of the Coronavirus (COVID-19). The GBP/USD pair continues to struggle to reclaim above the 1.3565 level and has reversed back under the big figure and towards 1.3703. Further close above the high end may cause a rally towards 1.3565 on the 4-Hour chart . Nonetheless, the weekly resistance level and zone should be considered. The GBP/USD pair continued to move downwards from the level of 1.3705 to the bottom around 1.3565. Also, it should be noted that the market opened above the weekly pivot point (1.3565). Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3643 followed by 1.3703, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3493. Last week, the GBP/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at 1.3493. Right now, the pair is trading above this level (1.3493). It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (1.3493) which is expected to act as major support today. This would suggest a bullish market because the moving average (100) is still in a positive area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3493 and 1.3703, so we expect a range of 210 pips in coming three ays. Therefore, the major support can be found at 1.3493 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 1.3643. If the trend breaks the minor support at 1.3643, the pair will move upwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 1.3703 in order to test the daily resistance 2. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay above the zone of 1.3643. - On the short term
- Chart : 30-minute
The GBP/USD pair continues moving in a bullish trend from the support levels of 1.3532 and1.3493. Currently, the price is in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 1.3638 and 1.3703. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.35 65 levels, which coincides with the weekly pivot. Moreover, the moving average (100) starts signaling an upnward trend. Therefore, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above 1.3532 and1.3493. Hence, it will be good to buy above the region of 1.3532 and/or 1.3493 with the first target of 1.3638. It will also call for an uptrend in order to continue towards 1.3703. The strong weekly resistance is seen at 1.3750. - Uptrend scenario (Bullish) :
An uptrend will start as soon, as the market rises above support levels of 1.3532 and1.3493, which will be followed by moving up to resistance level 1.3638.  Elliott wave analysis of USD/JPY for January 11, 2021 2021-01-11  The our January 5 post by clicking here) we said that USD/JPY was very close to completing a four year descending correction and start a new impulsive rally. A break above minor resistance at 103.90 would be the first good indication, that the correction had completed and the new impulsive rally is unfolding. In Far East trading the minor resistance at 103.90 was broken indicating the onset of a new impulsive rally higher towards 124.45 in the months to come. A break above key-resistance at 105.65 will confirm that a new impulsive rally is unfolding with the first target to look for seen at 111.72 and ultimately a rally to 124.45 should be expected.
Trading recommendation: We recommended to buy upon a break above 103.90 and the stop should be placed at 102.50 Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 11, 2021 2021-01-11 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has fallen out of the Rising Wedge pattern and hit the level of 1,2177, which is the technical support for the bulls. Another wave to the downside might break below the level of 1.2154, so then the road towards the level of 1.2088 is open. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2215 and 1.2250. Weak and negative momentum supports the short-term bearish outlook for this pair. Moreover, there is a Shooting Star candlestick pattern on the Weekly time frame chart, so the market might be starting the corrective cycle inside of the up trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2446 WR2 - 1.2395 WR1 - 1.2293 Weekly Pivot - 1.2204 WS1 - 1.2134 WS2 - 1.2082 WS3 - 1.1981 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. The market made the Falling Wedge trend reversal pattern around the levels of 1.2200 - 1.2300 and now the corrective cycle might have started. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for January 11, 2021 2021-01-11 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair is trading inside of the descending channel as the local technical support located at the level of 1.3513 had been broken (it will act as an intraday technical resistance level now on). The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.3428 and if the price will hit this level, then it will trade out of the channel. The momentum is weak and negative, so traders should expect more downside to come. The weekly time frame trend remains up. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.3811 WR2 - 1.3757 WR1 - 1.3642 Weekly Pivot - 1.3588 WS1 - 1.3474 WS2 - 1.3415 WS3 - 1.3307 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3702. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
EUR/USD. Nonfarm's disappointing values and Trump's gloomy situation 2021-01-11 The US dollar is back to work: It is gaining impulse and strengthening its positions over the market, amid the political crisis in the United States. The recent significant events, as well as the expectation of impeachment proceedings, supported the USD bulls. On the other hand, the growth in anti-risk sentiment allowed the EUR/USD bulls to develop a downward impulse, which was followed by a successful consolidation within the 1.21 mark. However, the key support level of 1.2100 is not yet overcome, so it is too early to talk about a reversal of the upward trend. To be able to do so, sellers need to be identified in the area of the price level of 1.20, which is under the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily time frame. Until that happens, every event can be perceived as a large-scale correction after reaching a two and a half year price high (1.2349). 
It is noteworthy that December's Nonfarm was overshadowed by the political war, which ended up tragically, resulting in a Capitol attack where five people died. Analyzing the moral and ethical aspects of the current situation, it can be concluded that the latest events in Washington saved the US currency, since the publication of Friday's labor market data left a very unclear impression. Many components of the release came out worse than expected, reflecting the slowdown in the labor market. In particular, the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector declined by 140 thousand, contrary to the forecasted growth of 70 thousand. This indicator went negative for the first time since April 2020, when the peak of the coronavirus crisis was recorded in the States. The growth rate of the number of employed in the private sector also showed similar dynamics: It declined by 95 thousand, although it was expected to rise by 100 thousand. Moreover, the average working week and the share of the economically active population have decreased, while the unemployment rate remained the same, that is, at around 6.7%. However, this fact hardly consoled the dollar bulls. The unemployment rate does not react so quickly to the current situation – this indicator refers to lagging economic indicators. Therefore, traders' certain optimism about low unemployment is early, since more operational indicators indicate rather alarming trends. Now, let's talk about salaries. The growth rate of average hourly wages came out at an unusual high level – at around 0.8% in monthly terms (although this indicator generally goes in the range of 0.1-0.4%), and around 5.1% in annual terms (with usual fluctuations within the range of 3-4.4%). However, there is still no reason to be optimistic, since these numbers increased due to the disproportionate loss of work by low-paid workers and their reduced wages, and not because of the general wage growth which would be very surprising in the current conditions. This situation was already observed in the United States last spring in the wake of the first coronavirus crisis. To put it simply, Nonfarm was disappointing. Most experts believe that Friday's numbers are unlikely to push the Fed to respond in the form of rate cuts. But the issue of expanding incentives can be considered resolved, even despite the rescue package of assistance to the US economy. 
The EUR/USD pair updated session highs in the first minutes after the release of US Nonfarm, but almost immediately declined. The failed report faded into the background amid significant events. This week, politics will also take the lead in the currency market. It should be recalled that that representatives of the Democratic Party will try to remove Donald Trump from the office – either by applying the 25th amendment to the Constitution, which means that the head of state is declared incapacitated, after which powers are transferred to the vice president or by impeachment. Congressmen will vote for the first option today or tomorrow, however, the relevant resolutions of the House of Representatives and the Senate will not have legal force: they are naturally an advisor, so the final say rests with the Vice President of the White House. According to sources in the American press, Mike Pence does not currently intend to apply the 25th amendment to the country's Basic Law. The second option remains – impeachment. The petition on the need to consider the issue of impeachment of Donald Trump has already been signed by 180 deputies of the Lower House of Congress. It is likely that Congressmen will start this process this week. However, this scenario is more populist than practical. It is worth noting that Joe Biden will take over as president literally in 9 days (January 20), whose victory has already been approved by Congress, whereas the impeachment process is quite prolonged. For example, Democrats initiated this procedure last 2019, but it dragged on for several months (from September 2019 to February 2020). Therefore, their current actions should be viewed from a different angle. As explained by the American media, the Democrats intend to launch Trump's impeachment procedure to include a ban on holding public office. This circumstance will not allow him to nominate his candidacy for the presidential election in 2024, that is, it is more about preventive measures. 
However, the market is not used to going into details, reacting to loud headlines and public outcry. Therefore, the dollar bulls will most likely control the situation in the near future, at least in the context of the EUR/USD pair. A safe dollar will be in demand, especially amid rising Treasury yields and declining stock markets. But considering the recent Nonfarm, it is too early to talk about the dollar's total recovery. It is only afloat due to political issues, while such fundamental factors are quite fleeting. In this case, short positions still look risky. Under such conditions, you can either consider opening short to the level of 1.2100 (lower line of Bollinger Bands on D1), or start by opening longs from the current positions to the level of 1.2260 (Tenkan-sen line) and 1.2330 (upper line of Bollinger Bands). GBP/USD. January 11. COT report. UK: pandemic continues 2021-01-11 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar on January 8 and resumed the process of falling. The rebound of the pair's rate from the downward trend line increased the probability of continuing the fall of quotes in the direction of the Fibo levels of 61.8% (1.3458) and 50.0% (1.3406). At the same time, the epidemiological situation in the UK continues to deteriorate. Even though both Britain and the United States have already approved several vaccines and started vaccination procedures, it will take at least 6-9 months when most of the population will be vaccinated. In the meantime, the coronavirus continues to spread and only the rate of its spread is increasing. In Britain, anti-records have been updated over the past week. If during the second wave (in November), the maximum number of diseases recorded per day was about 27 thousand, now, in January, this number has increased to 68 thousand. In America, no one is surprised by the figures of 250-300 thousand new cases per day. All attention is focused on politics and Donald Trump. We can now assume that traders have finally stopped buying the British because of the potential problems that Brexit and the third "lockdown" will bring. But for now, this is just a guess. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will work in favor of the British and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701). Closing quotes below the level of 100.0% will work in favor of continuing the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3291). GBP/USD - Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). Closing the pair below the level of 100.0% will work in favor of the beginning of the fall in quotes. GBP/USD - Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: There were no important economic reports in the UK on Friday. And reports from America were not taken into account by traders, as they were weak, and the US dollar showed growth. US and UK news calendar: On January 11, the UK and US calendars are completely blank, so there will be no background information today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from January 5 showed the same minimal activity of major players as in the case of the euro currency. During New Year's week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 1,028 long contracts and 1,111 short contracts. That is, almost an equal number. Thus, I cannot conclude that during the reporting week, the mood of speculators became more "bullish" or more "bearish". Judging by the total number of open contracts in this category, the mood remains more "bullish". However, on December 1, the situation was exactly the opposite, and the pound was growing even then. In general, there are no strong changes in the mood of major players. GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: It is recommended to buy the British dollar today when the pair rebounds from the level of 100.0% (1.3481) on the 4-hour chart with the goal of the trend line on the hourly chart. It was recommended to sell the pound sterling at the rebound from the trend line on the hourly chart with the target level of 76.4% (1.3522). Now this goal is taken, so we continue to remain in sales with targets of 1.3458 and 1.3406 until a possible rebound from the level of 100.0% on the 4-hour chart. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 11, 2021 2021-01-11  Overview : Last week, the EUR/USD pair closed the week with modest losses, about 179 pips (1.2349 - 1.2170). The EUR/USD pair has fallen for a second consecutive day, but on the four-hour chart shows that the price is flighting around a bullish 100 EMA, and far above the larger ones, by some means suggesting that the latest decline is corrective. The EUR/USD pair will continue rising from the region of 1.2130 - 1.2182 today. So, the support is found at the level of 1.2182, which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at the same time frame. Since the trend is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair is continuing with a bullish trend from the new support of 1.2182. The current price is set at the level of 1.2182 that acts as a daily bottom seen at 1.2182. Equally important, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to move between 1.2130 and 1.2265. As a consequence, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.2182 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 1.2265. If the trend breaks the support at 1.2265 (first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.2349 in order to test the daily resistance 2. The stop loss should always be taken into account for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.2130 (below the support 1). On the one-hour chart : Pivot : 1.2237. As technical indicators hold at recent lows near oversold readings, as the pair develops below its 100 EMA for the first time since early 5th January. The EUR/USD pair was trading around the area of 1.2165. Today, the level of 1.2165 represents a daily support in the H1 time frame. The pair has already formed the minor resistance at 1.2237 and the strong resistance is seen at the level of 1.2349 as it represents the weekly resistance 1. Thus, the major resistance is seen at 1.2349, while immediate support is found at 1.2167. If the pair closes above the weekly pivot point of 1.2167, the EUR/USD pair may resume its movement to 1.2349 to test the weekly resistance 1. From this point, we expect the EUR/USD pair to move between the levels of 1.2167 and 1.2349. Equally important, the RSI is still calling for a strong bullish market and the current price is above the moving average 100. As a result, buy above the level of 1.2167 with targets at 1.2237 and 1.2349 as so to form a double top. However, stop loss should always be taken into account; accordingly, it will be beneficial to set the stop loss below the last bearish wave at the level of 1.2100. 
Trading recommendations for starters on GBP/USD and EUR/USD for January 11, 2021 2021-01-11 
The previous trading week closed with the general strengthening of dollar positions all over the currency market, which is due to the US dollar's strong oversold level over a long period of time. The EUR/USD pair managed to correct by more than 150 points. It is noteworthy that the quote is still at the high of the medium-term upward trend, where the existing downward trend is only a warm-up for sellers. On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair is in the correction stage from the high (1.3702) of the medium-term upward trend since January 4, but the scale of the price change is only 200 points. To simply put it, the quote is still at the peak of an upward trend, which means that the pound sterling is strongly overbought. For the economic calendar, the US Department of Labor report was published last Friday, where the statistics were not very pleasing. The number of employed in the non-agricultural sector in December declined by 140 thousand, which is considered one of the strongest declines since last spring. The unemployment rate remained at 6.7%, although it was expected to rise to 6.8%. The US dollar felt a slight pressure, and then followed by strengthening at the time this statistical data was published (13:30 Universal time). This is not entirely logical in terms of fundamental analysis, but justified in terms of technical analysis, which refers to the dollar's high level of oversoldness. M15 chart of EUR/USD: 
H1 chart of GBP/USD: 
Trading recommendation for EUR/USD on January 11 There is no significant statistical data today, so the market will continue to move depending on technical factors. If we analyze the current trading chart, it can be seen that the new trading week began with an active downward movement, which led to the price decline towards the level of 1.2166. If the previously set downward tact is maintained, sellers still have a chance of descending to the area of 1.2130, where the variable pivot point is located. It is necessary for market participants to stay below the level of 1.2130 for the largest price change. In this case, the path will open in the direction of the range of 1.2060-1.2000. 
Trading recommendation for GBP/USD on January 11 Statistics are not expected to be published in the UK as well as other countries. Therefore, the market will pay special attention to technical analysis. If we analyze the current trading chart, it can be seen that the US dollar has strengthened by about 70 points since the opening of trading began. This is quite a lot, but it is still likely to further decline if the price is kept below the level of 1.3485. There is a possible decline in the direction of the values of 1.3430-1.3350, given the pound's high level of overbought. 
EUR/USD: Germany keeps the EU economy afloat. The outlook for the euro is unlikely to improve this week. US dollar will continue to rise 2021-01-11 The latest employment reports show that jobs in the US have dropped significantly for the first time since April 2020. In particular, nonfarm payrolls decreased by 140,000 in December 2020, after rising by 336,000 in November. Clearly, the figure is worse than expected, although the overall unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%.  At the same time, yield on US Treasury bonds grew amid expectations of more financial stimulus. Talks of increased budget resulted in a massive sell-off in treasuries, thereby boosting the yield. Investors expect that if Biden gains control of the US Senate, he will be able to promote his program, which includes a billion-dollar stimulus for the US economy. As for other economic reports, they will be released this week. Inflation is expected to decrease amid rising fuel prices, while the persistent increase in COVID-19 infections is expected to deliver significant negative impact on retail sales. In that regard, investors are closely monitoring the US CPI, as growth is expected to pick up in the coming months. Extremely low monetary policy, massive stimulus dollars and upcoming tax breaks are likely to affect prices, which the Federal Reserve is counting on.  In another note, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech this week, during which he will talk about the changes in fiscal policy undertaken at the end of last year. However, in his report, he is unlikely to signal any changes in monetary policy, therefore, it will remain close to zero, at least until 2023. At the same time, the volume of bond purchases will remain at $ 120 billion per month. Changes will be made only after there has been "significant progress" in meeting employment and inflation targets. The ECB president, Christine Lagarde, will also give statements on the EU's monetary policy. Any hints of an increase in the bond buying program could further exacerbate the situation in the European currency, which has been experiencing serious growth problems lately. In the EUR / USD pair, if the quote drops below 1.2170, there is a high chance that the euro will decline even lower to 1.2130 and 1.2060. Then, 1.2060 will be decisive for the bulls, as going beyond which could significantly affect the medium-term prospects in EUR / USD. Considering the recent statistics for the euro zone, it will be difficult for euro bulls to stand at this level. According to the latest data, retail sales in the eurozone fell by 6.1% in November 2020, which is the largest drop since April, when the first wave of COVID-19 and the economic lockdown completely subsided.  Only Germany, where the economy continues to recover, gives hope. Despite the partial lockdown imposed in the country, industrial production and exports continued to rise in November 2020, which enabled the economy to avoid the downturn expected in the fourth quarter. In particular, output increased by 0.9% in November, while economists expected it to rise by only 0.7%. On an annualized basis, industrial production fell 2.6%. Excluding energy and construction, production rose 1.2% . But despite that, the outlook for the industry remains cautious, mainly due to the COVID-19 pandemic and strict restrictions. With regards to exports, the data rose by 2.2% in November, after rising by 0.9% in October. Imports, meanwhile, grew by 4.7% against 0.4% in October. As a result, the trade surplus narrowed to € 16.4 billion, from € 18.2 billion in October. Going back to EUR/USD, the euro will rise only after the bulls regain control of 1.2225. Only then can the quote reach 1.2280 and 1.2350.
Author's today's articles: Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Mihail Makarov  - Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Vladislav Tukhmenev  Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up." Pavel Vlasov  No data
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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