Sunday, January 3, 2021

As Pelosi scrambles for her job, McConnell loses control

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Jan 03, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Melanie Zanona

Presented by Facebook

DRIVING THE DAY

WELCOME to the 117th Congress!

The new session starts at noon yes, on a Sunday — and it promises to be a fascinating opening day.

THE MAIN EVENT is the speaker's vote, and Nancy Pelosi's circle is 100% confident she's got this — even if it takes a few hours to get there because of the pandemic-era voting procedures. But with her razor-thin majority, Pelosi has little room for error.

Back to that in a moment, because the speaker's vote intrigue is being overshadowed by an all-out GOP civil war in the Senate. Three days after Mitch McConnell told his colleagues that the vote to certify the presidential election results on Jan. 6 would be "the most consequential I have ever cast," a dozen Republican senators have now publicly endorsed objecting to the Electoral College tallies that will make Joe Biden's victory official.

In short, there's a growing rebellion inside the GOP conference instigated by President Donald Trump, who promises more GOP senators will join the effort and also called for mass protests in D.C. on Wednesday. (Yes, the Proud Boys and right-wing militias will be there, and, yes, there is cause for concern about the prospect of violence.)

We can't say this emphatically enough: This does not happen to Mitch McConnell. For four years, the Senate leader has managed to maintain order in his ranks as Trump unleashes daily mayhem on the GOP from the White House. That's all gone to hell.

As a reminder, here's how this happened: Trump manufactured election fraud claims, which led his supporters to believe those false claims, which led these Republican senators to cite "unprecedented allegations of voter fraud" and "deep distrust of our democratic processes" as justification for their Wednesday plan. Circle of life.

The latest names of the objectors, via our Burgess Everett: Sens. Marsha Blackburn (Tenn.), Mike Braun (Ind.), Ted Cruz (Texas), Steve Daines (Mont.), Ron Johnson (Wis.), John Kennedy (La.) and James Lankford (Okla.), as well as Sen.-elects Bill Hagerty (Tenn.), Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.), Roger Marshall (Kan.) and Tommy Tuberville (Ala.). More from Everett and Evan Semones

Some perhaps surprising names NOT on the list: Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul.

BUT … we hear that Rand Paul is likely to join the objectors. Others will surely follow. Stay tuned …

Late Saturday, VP Mike Pence, who's been in the line of fire throughout and will preside over the joint session on Jan. 6, joined the rebels (by word, if not deed): "The Vice President welcomes the efforts of members of the House and Senate to use the authority they have under the law to raise objections and bring forward evidence before the Congress and the American people on January 6th," his spokesman, Marc Short, wrote in a statement.

The latest voice of principled objection to the objecting was Mitt Romney's:

"The egregious ploy to reject electors may enhance the political ambition of some, but dangerously threatens our Democratic Republic…I could never have imagined seeing these things in the greatest democracy in the world. Has ambition so eclipsed principle?"

And in an extraordinary statement released Saturday, Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) accused Cruz and Hawley (by name) of nothing less than subverting American democracy.

Last night Hawley responded, emailing his colleagues condemning Toomey's "shameless personal attacks" and "unfounded claims" (interesting choice of words!). (h/t Burgess)

FINALLY, this broke overnight: House Republicans held a rare Saturday night conference call to address their goal of overturning the Electoral College results on Wednesday, Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) told Fox News.

 

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OK, BACK TO THE HOUSE ACTION TODAY: Pelosi has privately acknowledged that her biggest opponent is the coronavirus, and the pandemic has complicated everything, from the nature of the proceedings to the speaker's math. Lawmakers will come to the House floor in small groups in order to reduce their potential exposure to coronavirus. New members have been limited to just one guest each. Read Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle on the unconventional opening day

Pelosi and her allies have embarked on a weekslong lobbying campaign to not only win over potential defectors, but to ensure that virtually every House Democrat will be physically present. Her office was emailing members up until the last-minute Saturday to reconfirm their attendance, per Sarah.

Meanwhile, Obama alumni, big donors and labor leaders have been pressuring some of the undecideds. Pelosi has been doling out favors. On Friday progressives won a little-noticed victory in the rules package allowing certain bills to be exempted from pay-go provisions that require new spending to be offset. Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) landed a coveted spot on the Energy and Commerce Committee.

Pelosi also created a select committee on economic fairness (alternate name: the committee to award more seats to members). And House Rules Chair Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) has warned Dems that not voting for Pelosi is a vote for "Kevin McCarthy and the QAnon wing of the Republican Party."

SOME BACK-OF-THE-ENVELOPE MATH, courtesy of Heather:

The makeup of the new Congress is 222 Democrats and 211 Republicans, with two vacancies. Pelosi needs a majority of those present and voting by name to secure the gavel, which means her magic number will be less than 218.

Democrats are expecting just one absence today: Rep. Alcee Hastings. (Rep. Rick Larsen said he's in the clear after testing positive for coronavirus, while Rep. Gwen Moore's quarantine ended at midnight last night, per sources.) Meanwhile, there could be at least two GOP absences due to Covid: Reps.-elect David Valadao and Maria Elvira Salazar.

Of the 10 Dems who didn't support Pelosi in 2019 who will be seated today, Pelosi has flipped at least five, including Rice. The other five — Reps. Elissa Slotkin, Mikie Sherrill, Jared Golden, Abigail Spanberger and Conor Lamb — will either vote present (which lowers the threshold needed to become speaker) or say someone else's name on the floor.

Also keep an eye on members of the progressive squad: Reps.-elect Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman have declined to say whether they would back Pelosi for Speaker. And Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has called for new blood in leadership, though she has given no indication she plans to oppose Pelosi on the floor.

HAPPENING TODAY … After the speaker's vote, the House will hold a moment of silence for Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R-La.), who died Tuesday from coronavirus complications. The Louisiana delegation has been coordinating efforts to honor his memory, including passing out Louisiana lapel pins for members to wear.

— WITH ALL THE CONGRESSIONAL DRAMA, we almost forgot there's an election in Georgia in two days that could make McConnell's current misery feel like a day at the spa. Count us as highly skeptical that Democrats can sweep a pair of special election races in the Deep South. But Trump sure seems to be doing his part to help their cause, calling the races "illegal and invalid" just as Republicans try to surmount a much-stronger-than-expected early vote performance by Democrats with huge GOP turnout on Election Day.

The must-read story of the day on Georgia comes from our own Marc Caputo and Maya King, who tackle this sensitive topic: how a Black man runs against a white woman in the Deep South, under the headline "Why Warnock talks puppies instead of race." One quote from the piece: "It's very hard for a Black man to be aggressive or even just respond in kind to a white female because if you do, they're gonna call you ghetto." (Editor's note from a biased editor on the story: You really should check this one out. It surfaces a difficult-to-discuss subplot of the runoffs with aplomb.)

The NYT and WaPo also published stories Saturday on RAPHAEL WARNOCK'S journey from the church to the Georgia Senate runoff. NYT: "Raphael Warnock, From the Pulpit to Politics, Doesn't Shy From 'Uncomfortable' Truths" … WaPo: "Raphael Warnock's campaign for the moral high ground"

And James Arkin, on the ground for us in Georgia, explores Jon Ossoff's political evolution (metamorphosis?).

Shots fired:

A Meghan McCain tweet is pictured.

SO ON NEW YEAR'S DAY we invited readers to share their predictions for the year ahead. An alternative — if, like guest author John Harris, they are too timorous to hazard a prediction for fear of looking foolish — they could send us a question to ask the Playbook Crystal Ball.

Well, there were a bunch of good replies. Two things were notable, however. The first is that many suggestions didn't exactly brim with optimism about the future and faith in the essential goodness of Americans. The second is that many people responded to the invitation to think about the year before us plainly reflected preoccupations about the four years now behind us.

This included skepticism about the efficacy of our own business, the media:

"How can mainstream interests (media, foundations, organizations) bring millions of Trump supporters back from their off-grid (dis)information sources into a more shared reality?" -Christine Matthews, president of Bellwether Research

"Newsrooms will struggle with how to cover Trump once he's ex-president (he said this crazy thing! he's having a rally! but he's not president anymore, so how much time and space do we want to dedicate to it?) … Congress will get hung up on the same issues that plagued them in 2020 when negotiating new Covid legislation — state and local funding and liability shields will still be a problem. If Dems gain control of the Senate, they'll eliminate the legislative filibuster (this one I'm not sure about at all, but won't I look smart if I'm correct?)" -Grace Segers, CBS News reporter

How about these rays of sunshine?

"Funding for state and local government will crash in 2021 due to the unwillingness and inability of Congress to provide supplemental funding as we dig out of the effects of the pandemic and subsequent economic hardship it has caused. … I believe the coming cuts will be far deeper than in the recession of 2008-09, which took 10 years to recover from." - Rich Dolesh, former VP of strategic initiatives at the National Recreation and Park Association

"This year the Taliban will take over Afghanistan, an outcome that all knew for over a decade but only delayed by the U.S. spending trillions of dollars and the deaths of thousands of American troops. Same as the War in Vietnam." -Bob Mulholland, Chico, Calif., 101st Airborne, Vietnam (1967-68)

The pandemic naturally will dominate the news — no courage in that prediction — but plenty of people are wary of the notion that 2021 will be about a roaring, vaccine-driven comeback.

"Will we acknowledge and begin to take steps in addressing the major mental health crisis that the pandemic has magnified? We knew that systems were fragile and bad indicators like deaths of despair were rising before, but the mental health recovery for millions will have a much longer tail than most other areas. New approaches and investments are needed to heal the nation and its people." -Bill Smith, founder of Inseparable

And of course we will obsess about the future of the Trumps.

"Donald J. Trump Jr., is a darling of his father's core supporters. His father will endorse him [for 2024], and 'Junior' will be able to get the necessary 35% of the vote in all winner-take-all primaries. Raising money will be a breeze. His sister will not get traction. Senators and governors will compete against each other with no good effect. Former VP Pence will not be able to claim the legacy." -Ken Elstein

"NY Att Gen will indict Trump, his children & senior Trump Org management for numerous Tax and other crimes; and Manhattan DA will indict Trump, his children & senior Trump Org management for Tax and other crimes & Obstruction of Justice." -Mark Grundy

CORONAVIRUS RAGING — 20.4 million Americans have tested positive. … 350,000 have died.

— CLIP AND SAVE: Bloomberg has a tracker of how many vaccines have been administered and where. So far 4.28 million doses have been given — just 33% of what's been distributed. The map and stats

 

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TRUMP'S SUNDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule. VP MIKE PENCE will participate in the swearing-in of senators at noon.

President-elect JOE BIDEN will meet with transition advisers. VP-elect KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Savannah, Ga., to campaign for Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock in the Senate runoffs.

Programming note: You'll notice some guest writers as we prepare to officially relaunch Playbook on Jan. 19. In the meantime, we also want to hear from you: What do you love most about Playbook? How could we be more valuable to you? Let us know — we'll read every submission.

 

GET THE BIG SCOOPS IN TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: A new year is upon us. Inauguration Day is just weeks away. President-elect Joe Biden is building an administration and quickly staffing up. What do his selections and decisions tell us about his priorities? Find out in Transition Playbook, the definitive guide to the new administration and one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news daily and analyzes the appointments, people, and emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

A row of ambulances is pictured. | Getty Images

PHOTO DU JOUR: London's Nightingale hospital gets ready to receive Covid-19 patients on Saturday as U.K. hospitalizations surpass their spring peak. | Hollie Adams/Getty Images

IRAN WATCH — "Iran plans 20% uranium enrichment 'as soon as possible,'" AP

THIS KEEPS GETTING WORSE — "As Understanding of Russian Hacking Grows, So Does Alarm," NYT: "The breach is far broader than first believed. … [I]t now appears Russia exploited multiple layers of the supply chain to gain access to as many as 250 networks. The hackers managed their intrusion from servers inside the United States … 'Early warning' sensors placed by Cyber Command and the National Security Agency deep inside foreign networks to detect brewing attacks clearly failed. …

"The government's emphasis on election defense, while critical in 2020, may have diverted resources and attention from long-brewing problems like protecting the 'supply chain' of software. … SolarWinds, the company that the hackers used as a conduit for their attacks, had a history of lackluster security for its products, making it an easy target … Some of the compromised SolarWinds software was engineered in Eastern Europe."

AP EXCLUSIVE: "After pardon, Blackwater guard defiant: 'I acted correctly'": "[Evan] Liberty said he understands many may view him undeserving of clemency but attributes it to what he insists is a misguided narrative of the shooting. In the interview, he maintained that he did not shoot in the direction of any of the victims.

"'I didn't shoot at anybody that wasn't shooting at me,' he said. He said he and the others would 'never take an innocent life. We responded to a threat accordingly.' Liberty, whose 30-year sentence was cut by roughly half last year, isn't certain how he came to be pardoned and said he has not spoken with Trump."

 

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A PERSPECTIVE ON KAMALA we haven't seen before: "Why Porn Stars Like Me Are Terrified of VP Kamala Harris," by Cherie DeVille in The Daily Beast: "As an American, I am thrilled to see Vice President-elect Kamala Harris enter the West Wing. As a porn star, I am terrified … I doubt Harris's executive empathy will extend to exotic dancers, porn stars, strippers, prostitutes, or erotic masseuses: The vice president-elect brings a lifetime of animosity toward sex workers to Number One Observatory Circle."

HMM … The Times goes deep on South Carolina's proposed new state flag featuring a palmetto tree: "One person said it resembled a toilet bowl brush."

BEYOND THE BELTWAY — AP/SAN JUAN: "New governor sworn in as a wary Puerto Rico demands changes"

 

A NEW YEAR, A NEW HUDDLE: Huddle, our daily must-read in congressional offices, will have a new author in 2021! Olivia Beavers will take the reins on Jan. 4, and she has some big plans in store. Don't miss out, subscribe to our Huddle newsletter, the essential guide to all things Capitol Hill. Subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Send tips to Eli Okun and Garrett Ross at politicoplaybook@politico.com.

THE NIGHT AFTER PELOSI'S — "Mitch McConnell's Louisville home vandalized following his blockage of $2,000 stimulus checks," Louisville Courier Journal

OUR BEST WISHES to CNN legend Larry King, who's hospitalized with Covid at age 87. CNN

REP. JAMIE RASKIN (D-Md.) and his family announced the creation of the Tommy Raskin Memorial Fund for People and Animals, in honor of his late son. Their statement

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Karoline Leavitt is now comms director for Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.). Harrison Fields will be comms director for Rep.-elect Byron Donalds (R-Fla.). Both previously were assistant White House press secretaries.

TRANSITIONS — Sophie Seid is now comms director for Rep.-elect Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa). She previously was press secretary for the House Foreign Affairs GOP. … Guy King will be a VP for Dan Klores Communications. He previously was comms director for Jaime Harrison's Senate campaign.

ENGAGED — Zach Swint, associate director of intergovernmental affairs at the White House, proposed to Mary Francis McDaniel, climate change and sustainability researcher at ICF, over the holidays. They met at college at Georgia Tech. Pic Another pic

WEDDING — Taylor Sholler, director of government affairs for Applied Materials, and Alycia Torres, an attorney, got married on New Year's Eve at a small ceremony at Harborside Chapel in Florida. Pic

BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) is 47 … Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) is 5-0 … Brad Parscale is 45 … Greta Thunberg is 18 … Daniel Fisher … WaPo's David Fahrenthold … Chris DeBosier, VP of federal government affairs for Verizon … Tim Rieser … NYT's Marc Tracy … Igor Volsky, founder and executive director of Guns Down America … Marcie Ridgway Kinzel ... David Margolick is 69 ... L.A. Times' Noam Levey ... Jenna Golden, founder and president of Golden Strategies … Thomas Walton-Cale … Sarah Lenti … McKinsey's Jonathan Spaner … L.D. Platt … Zach Gates of Rep. Ann Wagner's (R-Mo.) office …

… Conor Hurley, campaigns and elections guru at the National Education Association, is 34 … Michele Soresi … Carolyn Fiddler, comms director at Daily Kos … James Hunter … POLITICO's Matt Woelfel … Maggie Chan … Neal Zuckerman of Boston Consulting Group … Al Cardenas, senior partner at Squire Patton Boggs … former Treasury Secretary W. Michael Blumenthal is 95 … "Chef" Geoff Tracy is 48 … Romina Boccia … Betty Rollin is 85 … Tony Chauveaux … Richard Ben-Veniste is 78 … Erik Larson is 67 … POLITICO Europe's Laura Kayali … BBC's Justin Webb is 6-0 … Melanie Garunay … Joe Lenoff

 

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