Monday, January 4, 2021

America’s vaccine split-screen

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POLITICO Nightly logo

By Renuka Rayasam

Presented by

With help from Myah Ward

SHOT DOWN — In Florida, people camped out in lawn chairs to wait in line for their first dose of a Covid vaccine. In Ohio, 60 percent of nursing home workers offered the shot refused to take it. That split-screen — the vaccine frenzy that coexists with high vaccine hesitancy — is typical of what's complicated the country's vaccine rollout so far.

Simple logistics slowed down the Covid vaccine rollout — and put the pandemic's end further out of reach. Too few states have figured out how to get vaccine doses into the arms of people who need them and want them the most. The CDC has distributed more than 15 million first doses so far, but only 4.5 million people have received the first half of the two-shot cocktail, according to the agency, far short of President Donald Trump's goal of vaccinating 20 million people by the end of 2020. At least 1 million Americans need to be vaccinated every day in order for the pandemic to end by Sept. 1.

Some governors, including Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, say doses are sitting on shelves waiting to be administered. New York's Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo said hospitals must use their doses this week or face fines.

"It's total chaos," said Peter Hotez, a vaccine expert at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. "It's increasingly looking like we had a plan that was well-suited to vaccinate Singapore."

In the U.S., the actual task of connecting syringe to skin relies on providers and patients finding a way to meet, rendering the CDC's tiered system or any other top down plan pretty much pointless. In some cases providers are just offering unused doses to whoever is around so that they don't get wasted. Even experts who argue for the delayed-second-dose idea say it's out of sheer desperation: No studies show the safety and efficacy of delaying a second shot, and many people might just forgo it all together.

Many other countries are struggling to vaccinate residents as well. The fractured and overburdened U.S. health care system is particularly ill-suited to execute any sort of mass vaccination plan for adults. Nearly 11 percent of American adults below the age of 65 don't even have health insurance. Few people outside of hospitals and nursing homes are being actively offered a vaccine and not all of them want to be first in line. States have left it up to vulnerable patients to find a provider and sign up using sometimes questionable methods . Patients might not even know they are eligible.

"People are confused," said Rupali Limaye, director of behavioral and implementation science at the International Vaccine Access Center at Johns Hopkins University. She said distrust in the coronavirus vaccines has actually grown since the start of the pandemic, especially among Black and Hispanic Americans already deeply skeptical of the country's health care providers. Some incorrectly worry that the vaccines won't be effective against the new virus strain, first identified in the U.K.

Limaye said some insurers and doctors are calling or emailing patients to encourage them to sign up for a shot, but for the most part there is no mass federal campaign to reach people who might be eligible for the vaccine and convince them to take it. And if all the people who want a shot get one, reluctance may fade among those who are hesitant, she said.

The nation's top infectious disease specialist Anthony Fauci said the country will soon ramp up to 1 million vaccinations a day. Joe Biden has pledged to deliver 100 million vaccines in his first 100 days in office.

But Hotez believes there is no way to get to those numbers with the current plan. He told me today that the country should just throw out the tiered system rather than forcing drugstore pharmacists to enforce the rules. He said in addition to getting shots into the hands of nursing homes, hospitals and other providers, states should just set up outdoor tents in sports stadiums or other places with lots of parking to vaccinate whoever shows up. This is in the works in some states.

We need to "get the vaccine in people's arms," he said. "The only other choice is to continue with 3,000 deaths a day."

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Happy 2021 to our Nightly readers! We missed you though we enjoyed a little break. My favorite parts of Christmas: my 2-year-old's excitement over Santa, and the gift of a new coffee grinder already being put to good use with the year's crazy start. Reach out at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

 

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The most extensive vaccine program in history is upon us. Distributing COVID-19 vaccines to the public fast and at scale can make a difference for hundreds of thousands of lives. That is why Salesforce is helping provide digital vaccine management using data-driven information powered by its trusted Customer 360 platform. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, is using Saleforce's platform to help equitably distribute billions of vaccines to 190 countries. Learn about secure digital vaccine management solutions at Salesforce.com/vaccines.

 

Brian Pinker, 82, receives the Oxford University/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine from nurse Sam Foster at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford as the NHS increases its vaccination program with 530,000 doses of the newly approved jab available for rollout across the U.K.

Brian Pinker, 82, is the first to receive the Oxford University/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine from nurse Sam Foster at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford, as the U.K. begins its rollout of the newly approved shot. | Getty Images

First In Nightly

MAKING HER MARK — Betsy DeVos will soon step down from her perch as Education secretary, ending her four-year run as the most polarizing person to have led the department. The Michigan billionaire, education philanthropist and staunch supporter of school choice will be remembered as a Cabinet secretary who successfully delayed and dismantled Obama-era rules at all levels of education, Nicole Gaudiano and Caitlin Emma write.

Her nomination to the Education Department's top office in 2016 attracted more opposition than almost any other nominee and confrontations with public education advocates persisted throughout her term, especially during the coronavirus crisis, when she aggressively pushed for schools to reopen.

If confirmed, the next Education Secretary will be a departure from DeVos. Connecticut Education Commissioner Miguel Cardona is a longtime educator who won unions' support to be the nation's next top education official, even though they have at times sparred with their state chief.

DeVos has won favor on the right with swipes at teachers unions as anti-student and by speaking out against federal bureaucracy and overreach.

"Be the resistance," DeVos told her agency's career staff on how they should approach the incoming Biden administration, urging them to put students first as she said she always has, according to a recording of her remarks obtained by POLITICO. In a letter to Congress today, DeVos noted her time in her post is finite and encouraged lawmakers to reject much of Biden's education agenda in the coming years.

 

GET THE BIG PRE-INAUGURATION SCOOPS IN TRANSITION PLAYBOOK: Inauguration Day is quickly approaching. Is the Biden administration ready? Transition Playbook brings you inside the transition and newly forming administration, tracking the latest from Biden world and the transition of power. Written for political insiders, this scoop-filled newsletter breaks big news and analyzes the appointments, people and emerging power centers of the new administration. Track the transition and the first 100 days of the incoming Biden administration. Subscribe today.

 
 
Around the Nation

THE NEW SWING STATE? The idea that a pair of races in Georgia could decide which party controls the Senate is mind boggling to those of us who grew up in the South, Renu writes. Longer term, Tuesday's runoffs could determine whether once reliably conservative Georgia can officially be called a swing state. After Slack got back up and running this afternoon, Renu reached out to fellow Southerner Maya King to chat about whether there's political realignment happening in the state. This conversation has been edited.

How did Georgia go from a red state to a potentially purple one in such a short time?

It seems like a short time because so few people expected Georgia to be anything but an easy win for Trump on election night, but (!) turning it purple (i.e. adding more voters to the Democratic base in the state) was a process about seven years in the making. State organizers and voting rights activists like Stacey Abrams and Latosha Brown knew that Democrats would be able to win more races if they included first-time voters, rural residents and people of color in their outreach efforts.

As a number of experts have told me, "demography is becoming destiny." Democrats are betting that the groups of people who have settled in Georgia and been energized by the last two elections are likely to stay and continue voting for Democrats. This puts Georgia solidly in "battleground state" status. Think North Carolina, Florida.

How much of the political shift is because of inmigration to the state and how much is organizing long time GA residents?

Both are extremely important. More than a quarter-million people moved to Georgia in 2019 alone according to Census data — yet, at the same time, there are large numbers of longtime Georgia residents that are first-time voters or participate in elections sporadically.

What is happening in those Georgia suburbs? It's hard for me to wrap my head around the fact that places like Cobb County and Clayton County, where I grew up, swung toward Biden.

Yeah, it's pretty remarkable! Biden was the first Democrat to win Cobb county since 1992. And as you know, it used to be a GOP stronghold. I think it's a mix of several factors, all favorable to Democrats: the changing demographics in the Atlanta suburbs, the strong ground game that Democratic groups established across the state and growing distaste for Trump. This made it possible for two suburban demographics in particular — Asian Americans and white women — to put Democrats over the top in November.

Is there a model here for Democrats in other conservative states?

When we think of the South, we often think of old, antiquated people and policies. But that's not the case anymore. Millions of young people and people of color do live and thrive — and vote! — in Southern states. And more young people are running for office. Jon Ossoff himself is 33, a pretty young age to be heading to the Senate if he does win.

And I think that Southern states can be more competitive for Democrats, but the Georgia model will likely need to be modified and adjusted depending on the state. As you have reported , Mississippi is rich in Black voters with a healthy population of immigrants as well. But it has far fewer young migrants from other states than Georgia and a much smaller organizing community to mobilize voters. So getting to a point where Democrats can be viable there will be a process. Do I believe it's possible to see sweeping demographic and voting behavior changes take place across the South? Yes. Can it happen within the next four years? Likely no.

If Republicans win tomorrow what does that say about Dems' future chances in GA?

If Republicans take both Senate seats tomorrow, it will be a blow to Democrats in the immediate term. But they still have a model of registering and mobilizing voters that they likely will continue to build upon for future elections. Its next big test will come in 2022, which is likely to be a rematch between Brian Kemp and Stacey Abrams for the governorship.

HOW THE TOSS-UP HAPPENED — The fate of the Senate — and Biden's agenda — are in the hands of two Georgia runoff elections. But we have no idea who's gonna win them. In the latest POLITICO Dispatch, campaigns reporter James Arkin explains why the Tuesday contests are toss-ups.

 

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Transition 2020

LAST GASP — Trump and his allies have tried nearly every avenue to change the results of the 2020 election, but Wednesday's Electoral College vote certification during a joint session of Congress seems to be his last chance. Eugene Daniels takes us through what the events of Wednesday will look like, and how objections could slow down the process.

Nightly video player on election certification

GUARD SET IN MOTION IN D.C. — The D.C. National Guard has been activated to respond to protests expected this week when Congress certifies that Biden has defeated Trump, city officials said at a news conference today.

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser requested that the city's National Guard support local police in handling the influx of people expected in D.C. on Tuesday and Wednesday, Jacqueline Feldscher writes. D.C. Police Chief Robert Contee III said the National Guard has committed to helping law enforcement "through the life cycle of this event."

Bowser said about 100 members are being called up. "We will not allow people to incite violence, intimidate our residents or cause destruction in our city," Bowser said. (Keep reading for more on the scene in D.C. in Parting Words below.)

Bidenology

Then-Vice President Joe Biden gives a young boy a stuffed version of Biden's dog, Champ, while visiting a diner on March 26, 2014, in Washington.

Then-Vice President Joe Biden gives a young boy a stuffed version of his dog, Champ, while visiting a diner in 2014, in Washington. | Getty Images

Welcome to Bidenology, Nightly's look at the president-elect and what to expect in his administration. Tonight, Nightly's Myah Ward looks into Biden and his canine companions.

Joe and Jill Biden won't be the only familiar faces at the White House come Jan. 20. Their German shepherd Champ spent time in Washington when Biden was vice president, and this time he'll be joined by his 2-year-old brother, a German shepherd and shelter dog named Major.

After four years without a pet in the White House, supporters launched a "Dog Lovers for Joe" movement ahead of the election. The popular WeRateDogs Twitter account posted photos of Biden's pups in a Nov. 7 tweet: "Both 14/10 would be an honor to pet."

Biden got Champ from a breeder in Chester County, Pa. in 2008, after he was promised a post-election puppy by Jill, who would tape pictures of dogs on the back of the seat in front of Biden on his campaign plane for inspiration. Biden's grandchildren gathered around the Christmas tree that December to announce they'd chosen the puppy's name. For Biden, the name Champ was sentimental: He'd often mention his dad in campaign speeches, recalling his father's familiar phrase, "Any time you get knocked down, champ — get up!"

Champ lived in the VP residence with the Bidens, and they decided to replace the carpeting with puppy-friendly hardwood floors. Biden, who's had German shepherds since he was a kid, handed out miniature plush versions of Champ to children he met as VP.

The Biden family grew in 2018 when they adopted Major from the Delaware Humane Association after fostering him for nearly seven months. Biden hasn't explained how Major got his name, but the president-elect's late son, Beau, was a major in the Delaware National Guard.

At a 2019 Iowa campaign stop, Biden talked about why they adopted Major. "My vet said 'Your shepherd's 12 years old. He's getting slow. The best thing to keep him going is get another little puppy." It seems the young dog is keeping Biden active too, maybe a little too active. (The president-elect fractured his foot in late November while playing with Major.)

Cat lovers, never fear: It looks like the Bidens may add a cat to the first family.

 

A NEW YEAR MEANS A NEW HUDDLE IS HERE: Huddle, our daily congressional must-read, has a new author! Olivia Beavers took the reins this week, and she has the latest news and whispers from the Speakers' Lobby. Don't miss out, subscribe to our Huddle newsletter, the essential guide to all things Capitol Hill. Subscribe today.

 
 
The Global Fight

INTO THE BREACH — Iran announced today it has resumed enriching uranium at its underground fuel processing site — a breach of the 2015 nuclear agreement that Tehran insisted was justified by the U.S. withdrawal from the accord, but one that is potentially reversible, chief Brussels correspondent David M. Herszenhorn writes.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Iran's nuclear program, confirmed that Tehran had resumed enrichment of uranium-235 to 20 percent, a level not seen since 2015, before the conclusion of the nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

The move will put added pressure on Biden and his incoming administration, which has signaled a desire to resume diplomatic ties with Tehran over its nuclear program and repair damage caused by Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2017.

Nightly Number

14.4 percent

The proportion of Israelis who have received their first Covid-19 vaccination dose. (h/t Global Translations, which celebrates expanding to Monday, Wednesday and Friday editions today.)

Parting Words

DISTRICT HUNKERS DOWN — Since Election Day, Trump's followers have marched on state capitol buildings and the Supreme Court, protesting the election results. They have demonstrated in front of vote-counting centers, filed lawsuits and floated illogical conspiracy theories. Now, those efforts will come to a head on Wednesday, when the most zealous members of MAGA nation — activists, fans and militia groups — plan to rally one more time in Washington in a dying attempt to keep Trump in the White House, Tina Nguyen writes.

Timed to the day when Congress will formally certify Biden's win, the MAGA crowd is trying to pressure Vice President Mike Pence and Republican lawmakers to refuse to seat Biden over fabricated voter-fraud claims. It's a doomed plan, given the makeup of Congress, the absent evidence behind the rigged election allegations and the fact that every important state has already certified Biden's win. Yet that hasn't stopped a swell of Trump supporters from making plans — and the president from teasing his own appearance.

According to disinformation and extremist researchers, the Wednesday gathering will look similar to November's Million MAGA March — a mashup of garden-variety Trump supporters and more extreme members of the far right, with no apparent central organizing apparatus.

There's one key difference with this march, however. After weeks of failed lawsuits, flailing investigations and Republicans unhitching themselves from Trump's quest to keep the presidency, the Wednesday rally might be the last one while there's still a plan — even if it's an ill-fated one — to subvert the election.

 

A message from Salesforce:

There are many challenges while delivering vaccines to fight the global COVID-19 pandemic, and technology will play a critical role in helping governments and healthcare organizations distribute billions of doses worldwide. Distributing COVID-19 vaccines to the public fast and at scale will make a difference for hundreds of thousands of lives. That is why public health officials around the world are turning to Salesforce to help securely manage their vaccine distribution programs. Salesforce is proud to help provide premier digital vaccine management solutions, which use data-driven information powered by its trusted Customer 360 platform. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, is relying on Salesforce's cloud-based services to manage information that will help equitably distribute billions of vaccines to 190 countries. With Salesforce, public health providers have a trusted partner for administering vaccine programs. Learn about secure digital vaccine management solutions at Salesforce.com/vaccines.

 

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