Saturday, December 12, 2020

☕️ We're moving

Could the IPO market be broken?
December 12, 2020 View Online | Sign Up

Daily Brew

The Motley Fool

Good morning. Last night, the U.S. joined Britain, Canada, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico in approving Pfizer-BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use. What's next? Oh, just one of the greatest logistical challenges in modern history.

Enjoy the weekend! 

MARKETS

NASDAQ

12,377.87

- 0.23%

S&P

3,663.46

- 0.13%

DOW

30,046.37

+ 0.16%

GOLD

1,843.50

+ 0.33%

10-YR

0.897%

- 1.00 bps

OIL

46.56

- 0.47%

*As of market close

  • D.C.: The Senate kicked the government shutdown can down the road, passing a temporary funding bill that'll expire next Friday. Lawmakers will try to strike a Covid-19 relief deal before then.
  • Markets: Huge IPOs and Disney's big streaming announcements grabbed the headlines, but stocks in general fell this week in a rare setback. 

FINANCE

Finance Joins the 305

Pitbull

Giphy

If recent trends are any indication, bankers will be trading in their Patagonia vests for a flip flop tan. 

Yesterday, Ken Moelis, the chairman and CEO of New York investment bank Moelis & Co., told Bloomberg he wouldn't stop his employees from moving to Florida.

  • "We're a talent business," he said. "I want to attract, I want to motivate, and I want to retain the greatest talent in the world. And if that talent wants to do it in Florida, that's where we'll support them."

Moelis's comments echo a string of other reports that show momentum swinging from the Big Apple to the Big Orange.  

  • Goldman Sachs is scouting out Florida locations for its asset management arm, Bloomberg wrote last week.
  • Paul Singer's hedge fund, Elliott Management, is moving its HQ to West Palm Beach from Midtown Manhattan, also according to Bloomberg. 

Why now? 

It's not exactly a secret that Florida is warmer than New York, boasts a cheaper cost of living, and has world-class institutions like Publix. But banks have been hesitant to allow their operations to leak out of New York City because physical proximity was considered necessary for dealmaking. Then the pandemic hit, and showed that some parts of finance can be just as easily accomplished on Zoom as in physical boardrooms. 

  • Moelis said his 128 managing directors landed $72 billion of M&A deals since June 30—all without face-to-face meetings. 

It's not just finance…

And it's not just New York bleeding business leaders. In an interview with the WSJ this week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed rumors he had moved from California to Texas. Musk said the notoriously expensive Silicon Valley "has too much influence on the world," and predicted the tech industry would reduce its footprint there. 

  • Right on cue, software giant Oracle said yesterday it was moving its HQ from Redwood City, CA, to Austin, TX.

Bottom line: New York and SF have built world-leading business ecosystems. But their dominance could wane thanks to the pandemic's disruption of office work and Americans' shifting priorities around quality of life. 

        

PUBLIC HEALTH

Alright Team, It's Go Time

cargo hold

THOMAS COEX/AFP via Getty Images

The impending Covid-19 vaccine rollout will give many sectors across Corporate America the opportunity to shine. Let's take a quick tour. 

Retail: CVS and Walgreens have been tapped to administer vaccines at tens of thousands of long-term care facilities across the country, and CVS chief Larry Merlo told CNBC his company is "ready to go." Walmart's been adding cold storage capabilities to handle the vaccine at more than 5,000 of its pharmacies. 

Shipping: FedEx and UPS are carving up the U.S. like a Risk map as they prepare to rush the vaccine to administration sites. They're confident that together they have the capacity to deliver both the life-saving shot and the Christmas sweater you sent your aunt. 

Pharma: Turns out, developing a vaccine that can help end a global pandemic can make you a lot of money. Pfizer and Moderna are expected to generate $32 billion in Covid-19 vaccine sales in 2021, according to Wall Street forecasts. Moderna did just $60 million in revenue last year. 

        

INVESTING

Short Sellers in 2020

Bro meme

Real Bros of Simi Valley

The S&P 500 had its best month ever in November, churning out profits for Robinhood traders and institutional heavy-hitters alike. But one cantankerous group of investors got crushed: short sellers. 

  • A quick refresher: Short sellers make money when a company loses value.

This year has been a roller coaster year for the Simon Cowells of the market. In March, when markets crashed, the short fund index posted its biggest monthly gain ever

But it's been nothing but pain ever since. Two of the most popular targets for short sellers, Moderna and Tesla, have gained 702% and 629% this year, respectively, wiping out short sellers' March profits. 

One approach is working

Targeting companies like Nikola Motors that have recently gone public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Brand-new hedge fund XN returned 46% in its first five months, in part by betting against an "ever-expanding crop of newly public companies," founder Gaurav Kapadia told the Financial Times.

Bottom line: If XN's strategy keeps working, it will be an outlier. Short-biased funds are on pace for their worst year on record. 

        

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MARKETS

Pop, Lock, and Plz Stop It

DoorDash and Airbnb both went public this week with massive stock price "pops." On Day 1 of trading, DoorDash shares closed 85% above their initial price, while Airbnb's rose more than 112% by market close.

No first-day-of-school jitters in 2020

Nineteen IPOs doubled their share prices on their first day of trading this year. In 2019, just three newly public companies did. 

While popping may be good for Rice Krispies, it's more than just spilled milk for pre-IPO shareholders. Just ask Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky, who won the award for "most shook" live on Bloomberg yesterday. 

  • For Chesky, the gap between Airbnb's debut share price of $68 and the $139/share it actually opened at translates to billions of dollars of missed opportunity (had the company initially sold its shares at that higher price).

Plus, these first-day pops can make shares look soggy later. An inflated price that later drops off creates a Splash Mountain-style stock chart—not a great PowerPoint slide to show investors.

Looking ahead...more companies could go public via SPAC mergers and direct listings, two alternatives to an IPO process some are calling "broken."

        

TECH

All Dogs Go to Hyundai

Spot the robot

Giphy

Yesterday, the South Korean automaker said it's acquiring a controlling stake in Boston Dynamics, the robot maker with the internet-famous dog, Spot, for $1.1 billion. Whether you think Spot is oddly cute or straight out of Black Mirror's "Metalhead" episode, he could be a very good buy (see what we did there?) to help Hyundai advance its autonomous technology capabilities. 

Some of the sectors Boston Dynamics's tech might help with one day: self-driving vehicles, smart factories, and healthcare.

        

ENTERTAINMENT

Sony Is Betting On Japan's Biggest Media Export

Anime scene

Giphy

With Hollywood production disrupted and an escape from reality in high demand, shows about giant cannibal humanoids, high school superheroes, and demon-possessed sisters are having a heyday. 

  • Over 100 million households around the world watched anime on Netflix this year, and an anime title in Japan just grossed over $200 million at the box office.

Sony saw this surge, said "ok bet," and bought anime streaming service Crunchyroll from AT&T for $1.2 billion this week. What does it mean for the growing anime industry and the wider streaming wars? 

The Brew's senior anime correspondent, Jamie Wilde, said, "What's the point of having a senior anime correspondent if I don't write an in-depth story on this?" So she did.

Learn all about the anime industry here.

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • New York City will halt indoor dining on Monday because of higher Covid-19 rates.
  • Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline's Covid-19 vaccine will be delayed until at least the end of next year after it failed to produce a strong enough immune response in older people.
  • The live events industry lost more than $30 billion this year because of the pandemic, according to a new report from Pollstar.
  • Rep. Richard Neal, the Democrat in charge of the House Ways and Means Committee, encouraged the incoming Biden administration to strike a trade deal with the EU and abandon President Trump's China strategy.
  • California, the home state of Google, is looking to join the DOJ's antitrust lawsuit against Google. 

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GAMES

Brew Crossword

 

Today's crossword, written by Jana Perskey, combines two of our favorite things: celebrities and wordplay. Give it a shot here

+ Think you have what it takes to make your own crossword? Spoiler: You do. Check out our tutorial, and then be sure to submit. If we select your crossword, we'll also send you the iconic Brewneck sweatshirt.

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** A Note From Jamestown Invest

Investing in Jamestown Invest 1, LLC's common shares is speculative and involves substantial risks. The "Risk Factors" section of the offering circular contains a detailed discussion of risks that should be considered before you invest. These risks include, but are not limited to, illiquidity, complete loss of invested capital, limited operating history, conflicts of interest, blind pool risk, and any public health emergency. In addition to the foregoing risks, the adverse economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are unknown and could materially impact this investment. Further, there is no assurance that Jamestown Invest 1, LLC will be able to achieve its investment objectives or to access targeted investments like those identified. Securities offered through North Capital Private Securities member FINRA/SIPC.

              

Written by Neal Freyman, Toby Howell, and Jamie Wilde

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