Thursday, December 10, 2020

A nation gone mad — Facebook split up threat rises — Jobless claims could pop again

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Dec 10, 2020 View in browser
 
POLITICO Morning Money

By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

Presented by Harry's

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Quick Fix

A nation gone mad — Over 3,000 people died of COVID-19 in the United States on Wednesday, the highest number in the pandemic so far and well over the number who died in the Sept. 11 2001 terrorist attacks.

And we are hitting numbers close to this every day. And yet the President of the United States is obsessed by absurd legal efforts to overturn the legitimate result of the 2020 election. These efforts are going nowhere. But they represent both an affront to American democracy and a massive distraction from the work that must be done.

And Congress remains unable to approve more Covid-19 relief money even as damage to the economy piles up, food lines grow and the risk of sliding back toward recession rises. We are not all doom and gloom here. Hope awaits after this winter. We could be going into it with some strength or as a smoldering hot mess. And we've chosen the latter.

Jobless claims could pop again — More evidence of just how soft the economy still is will come at 8:30 a.m. with weekly jobless claims. Consensus is for only a slight rise to 725K (which is still a massive number) but it could be significantly worse.

Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "[W]e're at 900K. … We believe strongly that last week's plunge in claims, to 712K from 787K, was due to nothing more than Thanksgiving seasonal adjustment problems, which will now reverse, restoring the emerging upward trend triggered by the third wave of Covid infections."

Businesses worried — Via new AICPA survey out today: "More than half of business executives (54 percent) say they expect some negative impact to their organizations if a renewed round of economic stimulus does not materialize by early 2021"

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING — Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

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Driving the Day

Senate Commerce Committee has a hearing at 9:00 a.m. on "The Logistics of Transporting a COVID-19 Vaccine." Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise to 725K from 712K. Consumer prices at 8:30 a.m. expected to rise 0.1% both headline and core.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg testifies remotely as U.S. Senator John Kennedy listens during a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on Nov. 17, 2020 in D.C.

Hannah McKay-Pool/Getty Images

FACEBOOK BREAK-UP THREAT GETS REAL — Our Leah Nylen: "Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg confided to his employees in a townhall last year that the surging calls to break up the company represented an 'existential' threat to the social network.

"On Wednesday, that hypothetical threat became real when the federal government and more than 40 states sued Facebook for a litany of antitrust complaints — and specifically asked the courts to make it sell off crown jewels Instagram and WhatsApp.

"New York Attorney General Tish James said the states drew inspiration for their effort from the Justice Department antitrust suit that broke up AT&T's old Bell monopoly in 1984, which created a collection of regional 'Baby Bells' — as well as its 1998 suit against Microsoft, in which the DOJ initially sought to split the tech giant into three companies."

BIDEN PICKS USTR — Our Gavin Bade, Tyler Pager, and Sabrina Rodriguez: "Biden will nominate House Ways and Means Committee trade lawyer Katherine Tai as U.S. trade representative, according to two people familiar with the decision.

"Biden's pick will be responsible for repairing economic ties with allies chastened by outgoing ... Trump's trade wars while fulfilling his campaign pledge to stay tough on China. The post is a Cabinet-level position within the Executive Office of the President."

GOV'T FUNDING DEADLINE PUSHED BACK — Our Caitlin Emma: "The House passed a one-week stopgap spending bill on Wednesday in a 343-67 vote, shifting the government funding deadline from Friday at midnight to Dec. 18.

"The bill passed under suspension of the rules, meaning it required two thirds of the lower chamber's approval. The measure now heads to the Senate, which is expected to take it up on Thursday."

FANNIE, FREDDIE'S FUTURE AT STAKE IN HIGH COURT CHALLENGEOur Katy O'Donnell: "The president should be given more power to fire the government's top housing regulator, Trump administration lawyers argued … before the Supreme Court, in a case with major implications for the future of the country's mortgage-finance system.

"Shareholders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac … said a 2012 agreement directing the company's profits to Treasury Department coffers is void because the structure of their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, is unconstitutional."

AND MORE TO COME ON FANNIE AND FREDDIE — Via our Victoria Guida: "Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters Wednesday that he will 'most likely' make changes to the terms of his department's support for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 'to set them on the right direction,' though he didn't give a specific timeline or more details.

"He also said he still believes Congress should pass legislation reforming the housing finance system, adding that he'd spoken to Republicans and Democrats as recently as the past few weeks. 'We're going to create a blueprint,' he said. 'The one area I feel like we didn't make enough progress is on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and GSE reform,' he said of the last four years."

And Mnuchin on stimulus checks : Mnuchin "defended the Trump administration's proposal to send one-time relief checks to millions of Americans rather than pouring more money into federal unemployment benefits, calling it a better way to get aid to struggling households."

 

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Markets

STOCKS SLIP ON WALL STREET — AP's Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: "Stocks closed broadly lower on Wall Street led by weakness in technology companies. The S&P 500 fell 0.8% Wednesday, easing the benchmark index below the record high it set a day earlier."

COST OF BUYING INTO S&P 500 HAS RISEN FOURFOLD IN LAST DECADE — Bloomberg's Sarah Ponczek: "For a view of just how expensive stocks are, consider a different type of valuation metric: How many hours would you have to work, at the average wage, to buy into the S&P 500 Index? By one back-of-the envelope calculation, more than ever, and almost four times the amount it would have taken a decade ago."

SEC APPROVES PLAN TO BRING MORE DETAILED STOCK-MARKET DATA TO PUBLIC — WSJ's Alexander Osipovich: "The Securities and Exchange Commission approved a plan to beef up the public data feeds that broadcast stock prices to investors, broadening access to market information that exchanges sell to professional traders at a premium.

"Under the SEC's plan, detailed data showing supply and demand for stocks will be added to the public feeds, which are called securities information processors, or SIPs. Wall Street banks and electronic trading firms use such data to predict short-term price moves and ensure that they get good prices when buying or selling stocks."

 

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Fly Around

SEC'S CLAYTON: NEW RULES FOR SHORT-TERM FUNDING ARE COMING —Bloomberg's Benjamin Bain: "New rules for short-term funding markets are likely coming in response to the pandemic-fueled turmoil that hit Wall Street trading desks in March, according to U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton.

"Speaking in a Wednesday Bloomberg Television interview, Clayton said the regulations would be a collaboration among the SEC, the Federal Reserve and other agencies. The changes would also reflect the differences among various financial instruments, including Treasuries, municipal bonds and money-market mutual funds, he added."

'LOCKDOWN LITE' SPARES ECONOMIES BUT DOESN'T END PANDEMIC — WSJ's Greg Ip: "Global stock markets cratered when the first wave of Covid-19 infections shut down economies around the world. The current wave by some measures is worse, but markets have barely shrugged.

"Partly that's because with effective vaccines headed for approval, the end of the pandemic is in sight. But it also is because governments have tried to apply the lessons of the spring by imposing shorter and less stringent restrictions, or none at all. The economic hit has thus been smaller and more manageable."

JUST HOW BAD WAS VIRUS AID FRAUD? — NYT's Stacy Cowley: "Chris Hurn wasn't surprised scammers were trying to get government money. An enormous relief effort like the $523 billion Paycheck Protection Program is bound to attract grifters.

"As thousands of applications for government-backed loans flooded into his firm, Fountainhead Commercial Capital, it reported at least 500 suspicious cases to federal officials, Mr. Hurn said. But what shocked him was the brazen glee of the scammers who got money anyway. At least a dozen times, 'someone tried to defraud us, got turned down and then followed up to taunt us that they got their loan,' said Mr. Hurn, Fountainhead's chief executive."

ICYMI: CRIMINALS GETTING SMARTER IN USE OF DIGITAL CURRENCIES TO LAUNDER MONEY — Reuters' Anna Irrera: "Criminals are becoming more sophisticated in their use of cryptocurrencies to launder money, with hundreds of millions of dollars of dirty funds last year flowing through digital wallets that allow users to hide their trail, according to Elliptic.

"At least 13 percent of all criminal proceeds in bitcoin passed through privacy wallets - which make it harder to track cryptocurrency transactions - in 2020, up from 2 percent in 2019, according to a study by the digital currency forensics firm."

 

JOIN FRIDAY - A PATH TO CLEANER SKIES: Before the pandemic, increased demand for air travel resulted in rising global emissions. Then, Covid-19 changed everything. As airlines start to recover from the resulting financial fallout, what is happening with the use of cleaner jet fuel, investments in technology, and international pacts to cut the airline industry's carbon footprint? Join POLITICO for a conversation on the future of air travel, climate change, and sustainability, as well as an executive conversation between POLITICO CEO Patrick Steel and United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
For Your Radar

TRANSITIONS — Per release: "Mike Lee will be joining Wells Fargo as Head of Federal Government Relations later this month, based in our DC offices. Mike is a well-known, highly respected professional, both in Washington, D.C. and the financial services industry, and brings a wealth of knowledge and political expertise to Wells Fargo."

Also per release: "Hill veteran and former Goldman VP Eric Edwards is leaving FS Investments, where he is currently Head of Government Affairs, to be President of Mercantile Bank International (MBI). MBI is a global payments and digital asset custody bank based in San Juan, PR that was founded in 2019 and chaired by former NYMEX head J. Robert "Bo" Collins, Jr."

 

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