Friday, December 11, 2020

A look at Pelosi’s math for speaker

Presented by Freight Rail Works: A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
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POLITICO Huddle

By Melanie Zanona

Presented by

with help from Sarah Ferris and Andrew Desiderio

SEALING THE DEAL -- There's not a Democrat in Washington who doubts Nancy Pelosi will be elected as speaker on Jan. 3. That is, as long as everybody shows up.

Pelosi and her supporters have begun a weeks-long lobbying blitz to ensure that virtually every House Democrat will be present to vote on that first Sunday next month. It's not just the slimmer majority on Pelosi's mind. Democrats say the biggest threat is achieving near-perfect attendance amid a raging virus that's infected dozens of members this year.

A single Democrat forced to stay home because of illness or quarantine could upset Pelosi's careful balancing act. (The Capitol physician has even advised that members should be summoned back to Washington as early as Dec. 27 to ensure the vote goes as planned on Jan. 3.)

And Pelosi and her allies have been doing some leg work to win over one-time defectors. In some cases, Obama alumni, big donors and labor leaders have been dispatched to squeeze the undecideds.

So far, the math is looking good for Pelosi. Out of the 10 Democratic defectors who will be seated in January, Pelosi has already flipped several: Reps. Jim Cooper (Tenn.), Jason Crow (Colo.) and Rep. Kurt Schrader (Ore.). At least three Dems are expected to vote "no" — Reps. Conor Lamb (Pa.), Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.). And Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) will vote present. That leaves three undecided: Reps. Mikie Sherrill (N.J.), Kathleen Rice (N.Y.) and Ron Kind (Wis.).

Senior Democrats say their biggest fear is that some of their members are exposed to the coronavirus over the holidays. "The only way she won't win is — I'm always a little nervous about Covid. That's the most frightening aspect of this," said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (Mo.). The story from Sarah, Bres (his last POLITICO byline!) and Heather: https://politi.co/2IEzFIh.

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RAND TAKES ANOTHER STAND -- Rand Paul is at it again. And this time, the Kentucky Republican's posture could force a government shutdown.

The Senate adjourned Thursday night without resolving Paul's objections to swift passage of the annual defense policy bill, and without solutions to several other impasses — all of which could complicate efforts to fund the government, clinch a Covid relief deal, and override the president's veto of the defense bill.

Not only is Paul objecting to a provision about Afghanistan within the defense bill, but Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is demanding a vote on a new round of stimulus checks and a group of conservatives is pushing for votes on legislation to prevent future government shutdowns.

Paul said he would drop his objection and allow the one-week stopgap spending bill to pass as long as GOP leaders punted a final NDAA vote to Monday. But as of Thursday night, leadership and the rank-and-file had not reached an agreement, and the Senate will come into session at 9:30 a.m. for a rare Friday session. Current government funding expires at midnight.

"If people come together we could probably wrap a couple of things up this week and then work on the big stuff — the spending bill and Covid package — next week," Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said. Depending what happens in the Senate today, that might be wishful thinking. Andrew, Connor O'Brien and Burgess have more: https://politi.co/3qMVgiP.

OH, and don't miss this clapback from Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) after Paul went after her on the Senate floor: "@RandPaul is currently holding up passage of the #NDAA, blaming America, and delaying hazardous duty pay to hundreds of thousands of our service members and their families. Inexcusable," she tweeted. "Rand and I do have one thing in common, though. We're both 5'2" tall."

Related: "Mike Lee blocks legislation to create Smithsonian museums for Latinos and women," via Marianne: https://politi.co/2LrLC57. … "'We cannot go home without it': Negotiators inch toward deal on $1.4 trillion spending measure," by Caitlin Emma: https://politi.co/2W1BstU.

HOW THE MITCH (AND NANCY) STOLE CHRISTMAS? -- It looks like Congress might be over the holidays, with lawmakers struggling to clinch a coronavirus relief deal. Yesterday, McConnell's staff informed House and Senate leadership offices that a bipartisan group's effort to strike a compromise on state and local aid and a temporary liability shield — major sticking points in the ongoing talks — probably won't satisfy the GOP, a major blow to the bipartisan effort.

And Speaker Nancy Pelosi said this to reporters yesterday: "We have to have a bill and we cannot go home without it. I would hope that it would honor the Dec. 18 deadline. But we can't go before the package is ready and the votes are there … We've been here after Christmas, you know." Much more on the paralysis and frustration from Burgess, Heather and Sarah: https://politi.co/375HTT9.

Related: "CDC's Redfield told staff to delete email, official tells House watchdog," from Dan Diamond: https://politi.co/2Lm9KG5.

HELLO FRIDAY! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, Dec. 11, where your host is wondering how two people can be TIME's Person of the Year!?

THURSDAY'S MOST CLICKED: Marianne's piece on Sen. Dick Durbin being allowed to stay as Dem whip and become top Dem on Judiciary was the big winner.

VP Mike Pence and Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.)

Vice President Mike Pence, left, and Sen. David Perdue wave at the "Defend the Majority" rally at Augusta Regional Airport in Augusta, Ga., Thursday Dec. 10, 2020. Pence was there to campaign for Republican Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler who are running in a Jan. 5 runoffs with Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. (Michael Holahan/The Augusta Chronicle via AP) | Michael Holahan/The Augusta Chronicle via AP

 

JOIN TODAY - A PATH TO CLEANER SKIES: Before the pandemic, increased demand for air travel resulted in rising global emissions. Then, Covid-19 changed everything. As airlines start to recover from the resulting financial fallout, what is happening with the use of cleaner jet fuel, investments in technology, and international pacts to cut the airline industry's carbon footprint? Join POLITICO for a conversation on the future of air travel, climate change, and sustainability, as well as an executive conversation between POLITICO CEO Patrick Steel and United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. REGISTER HERE.

 
 

EVERYTHING'S BIGGER IN TEXAS -- A total of 106 House Republicans signed an amicus brief for the long-shot Texas lawsuit to overturn the election results in other states, arguing the defendant states acted illegally and that their electors should be prevented from voting. This comes after Rep. Mike Johnson (R-La.) directly urged fellow Republicans to lend their name to the effort, telling them Trump is "anxiously awaiting the final list."

But the lawsuit has also drawn skepticism among some Republicans on Capitol Hill — even among those who have broadly been supportive of Trump's efforts to challenge an election that he lost. Several Texas GOP lawmakers, including Sen. John Cornyn, raised questions about the merits of the lawsuit.

Meanwhile, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) called it "a dangerous violation of federalism." And House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy, a top Trump ally whose name was notably absent from the amicus brief, twice dodged questions about whether he backed the long-shot legal effort. More from Kyle and Zach Montellaro: https://politi.co/2IEDRYx.

Related: "Schumer urges Senate GOP to cancel 'ridiculous' election hearing," by Andrew: https://politi.co/3maZZHs.

I WISH THEY ALL COULD BE CALIFORNIA FEUDS -- Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) clashed yesterday over whether Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) should remain on the House Intelligence Committee following an Axios report that he was targeted by an alleged Chinese spy.

The story from WSJ: "House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy called for Rep. Eric Swalwell to be removed from office over allegations that the lawmaker was targeted by a suspected Chinese spy, prompting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to rise to the defense of her fellow California Democrat. ...

"On Fox News on Wednesday, Mr. McCarthy called for Mr. Swalwell to be removed from his post, asking, 'Why is he still on the intel committee and why is he still a member of Congress?' 'Remember what the intel committee gets: Information that no other members are able to see,' Mr. McCarthy said. 'And remember what this member did. He was so preoccupied going after this president he was not protecting our country from bad actors.'

"Mrs. Pelosi defended Mr. Swalwell on Thursday and criticized Mr. McCarthy for the timing of his complaints. 'I don't have any concern about Mr. Swalwell,' she said at a press briefing. She said that House leaders were briefed on the efforts by the Chinese government to influence members of Congress in 2015. She said it was disingenuous of Mr. McCarthy to make an issue of it now." More from Natalie Andrews and Warren P. Strobel: https://on.wsj.com/3m9FJ9t.

SUBPOENA SZN -- "House Oversight panel subpoenas Wilbur Ross for census records," by Roll Call's Michael Macagnone: https://bit.ly/3gBETkx.

 

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EVERYTHING'S COMING UP ROSES -- Rep. Max Rose (D-N.Y.) may have lost his reelection in the House, but that might not be the end of his political career. Joe Anuta explains: "U.S. Rep. Max Rose has opened a campaign account to run for mayor, according to public filings. .. Should he officially announce his run, Rose will join a crowded field of candidates who have already staked out nearly every political lane across the spectrum.

"With a district deeply divided over issues of race and policing, the U.S. Army combat veteran had to walk a tight line while in office. His opponent, Republican State Assembly Member Nicole Malliotakis, was able to capitalize on significant Trump turnout numbers and convince voters that Rose was not supportive enough of law enforcement.

"Rose's campaign will likely tack most closely to other more moderate Democrats already in the race, such as Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams and former Wall Street executive Ray McGuire." More: https://politi.co/2W5xYH2.

DEEP DIVE -- "Lawmakers with stock holdings vote in ways that juice their portfolios, data shows," via WaPo's Christopher Ingraham: https://wapo.st/37aEvXf.

BIDEN GOES SOUTH -- President-elect Joe Biden will campaign in Georgia next week for the Senate Democratic candidates who are competing in a pair of crucial runoff races next month. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Bluestein explains what that says about the broader Dem politics in the state: "Not long ago, state Democrats ran screaming from national figures. Now, they're embracing them.

"Of course, it makes sense for the Senate candidates to tie themselves to Biden, who became the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry the state since 1992. And the Jan. 5 runoffs will determine control of the U.S. Senate — and the fate of Biden's legislative agenda.

"But the Georgia Democrats' embrace of national stars goes far beyond the former vice president, who defeated President Donald Trump in the state by about 12,000 votes. They've held fundraisers with U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren — liberal leaders whom Republicans eagerly frame as too extreme for Georgia." More: https://bit.ly/2LnSwbr.

BREWING BATTLE -- "Student Loan Cancellation Sets Up Clash Between Biden and the Left," by NYT's Erica L. Green, Luke Broadwater and Stacy Cowley: https://nyti.ms/3gAsxt1.

 

KEEP UP WITH THE GLOBAL HEALTH AGENDA IN 2021 : As hopeful Covid-19 vaccine news continues to emerge, the focus is on how different countries plan to prioritize distribution. If nothing else, the past year has revealed how critical it is to keep up with the politics, policy, and people driving global health. Our Global Pulse newsletter connects leaders, policymakers, and advocates to the people and politics impacting our global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today.

 
 


TRANSITIONS

Lara Hopkins has been named chief of staff for Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.). She most recently was Castor's deputy chief of staff/scheduler.

Jennifer Cox is now chief of staff for Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.). She previously was his campaign manager. Katie Campbell is now legislative director for Kelly. She most recently was deputy legislative director for Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.). Jacob Peters is now communications director for Kelly; he previously had that same job on the campaign. Renée Gasper is now administrative director and most recently held the same position with outgoing Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.). Jordan Uter is now operations and scheduling director for Kelly; he previously had that same title on the campaign.

Molly Lowe has been promoted to be chief of staff for Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.). She most recently was his legislative director.

Jeff Lucas has joined Todd Strategy as a senior director for health policy and government affairs. Lucas was previously health policy adviser to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and before that worked for Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Ind.).

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House is out.

The Senate meets at 9:30 a.m.

AROUND THE HILL

Nada.

TRIVIA

THURSDAY'S WINNER: Brad Fitch was the first person to guess that South Carolina is the state to have the same two senators (Fritz Hollings and Strom Thurmond) serve for the longest period of time (55 years).

TODAY'S QUESTION: From Brad: When the Congress certifies Joe Biden as president in a joint session of Congress on January 6, 2021 the Vice President, Mike Pence, will be presiding over the proceedings. When was the last time that a sitting vice president lost a re-election bid for the same office (vice president), and had to preside over the certification of the vice president (and president) who beat him? And who was the vice president who lost re-election? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess to mzanona@politico.com.

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